Publications

    Population and Family Estimation Methods at Statistics Canada

    Chapter 5
    Net non-permanent residents

    Go to text

    Beginning of text

    Non-permanent residents (NPRs) are persons who have been legally granted the right to live in Canada on a temporary basis under the authority of a temporary resident permit, along with members of their family who are living with them. This chapter provides details on the data sources for NPRs and the methods used to produce estimates of NPRs by age, sex, province and territory.

    5.1 Data sources and relevant concepts

    5.1.1 Data sources

    NPR's population includes foreign workers, international students, holders of Minister's permits and refugees. This group also includes individuals who seek refugee status upon or after their arrival in Canada and remain in the country pending the outcome of processes relative to their claim. However, children born in Canada to parents with non-permanent resident status are considered Canadians by birth and have all the rights and privileges associated with citizenship. Note that Citizenship and Immigration Canada (CIC) uses the term temporary resident rather than non-permanent resident.

    The data required to produce the NPR estimates are obtained from CIC Field Operations Support System (FOSS) files. CIC is currently transitioning towards a new system—the Global Case Management System (GCMS). FOSS files include data on visitor's permits, work permits, study permits, Minister's permits, refugee status claims, landings,Note 1 applications for landing and deportations. The information is used to estimate the number and characteristics of people granted non-permanent resident status by the federal government.

    5.1.2 Relevant concepts

    Movements into and out of the NPR population are referred to as flows, as are status changes from permit holders to refugee status claimants or from permit holders or refugee status claimants to immigrant status.Note 2 As illustrated in Figure 5.1, persons can enter into the current stock of NPRs (inflows) either from abroad or from non-resident status within Canada (e.g. a visitor). When people leave the NPR population (outflows), it is assumed that they have either left the country, become a non-resident, or become an immigrant.

    Figure 5.1 Non-permanent residents flows

    Figure 5.1 Non-permanent residents flows

    Description for Figure 5.1

    In the Demographic Estimates Program, the number of NPRs is included in the total population estimates for a given date, while the difference in NPR numbers over a certain period of time is included as a component of demographic growth. This new component is referred to as net NPRs.

    NPRs may be in Canada under any one of the following situations:

    1. as holders of permits (they may concurrently hold more than one type)
    2. as refugee status claimants
    3. as refugee status claimants who also possess one, two or three of the types of permits that would qualify them for NPR status.

    In cases where refugee status claimants concurrently hold one of the other permits (for instance if a refugee status claimant is granted an employment permit to help support himself or herself along with dependants within Canada), the refugee status supersedes the other NPR status. Consequently, references to permit holders excludes persons who have also made refugee status claims. The two major NPR sub-groups—permit holders and refugee status claimants—are used for estimation purposes. Dependants who were born abroad to members of these two sub-groups of NPRs are also included; however children born in Canada to NPRs are not included, this population being covered by the birth component (see Chapter 3).

    All persons in possession of a permit or claiming refugee status are assigned a Client Identification Number (CID) by CIC. This identification number is a key variable as it allows identifying only once each person holding a permit or claiming refugee status regardless of the number or permits issued to the holder. The CID is used in the production of estimates of NPRs.

    Anyone who received non-permanent resident status prior to the reference date is counted in the NPR population. For refugee claimants, the date of their application is used as the date they receive NPR status. For permit holders the effective date is typically the start date of their permit. Permit holders and refugee claimants are excluded from the population if their permit has expired, if they receive permanent resident status, or if they are deported. In addition, refugee claimants are excluded if their file has been inactive for two years.

    5.2 Estimates of the amount of non-permanent residents

    The two major subgroups of the NPR population (permit holders and refugee status claimants) are administratively different; their estimates must, therefore, be produced separately. The methods used in the production of estimates for permit holders are discussed first, followed by those used for refugee status claimants.

    5.2.1 Number of permit holders

    Permit holders (PHs) must either have had an official document signed in advance or have it signed upon entry to Canada, allowing them to reside in Canada on a temporary basis. A person is thus considered part of this population if he or she possesses a valid work permit, study permit or Minister's permit on the estimate reference date. This means that the document must have been in effect prior to the reference date and valid until or past the reference date. If a person possesses more than one valid permit, the information from the permit for which the effective dateNote 3 is closest to the reference date is used.

    Since dependants of permit holders are not required to obtain their own permits (though some do), the number of permit holders and their dependants corresponds to the total number of persons covered by the documents.

    Status as a permit holder terminates upon the expiry of the valid document or when a PH is granted immigrant status (i.e., becoming a permanent resident), deported or seeks refugee status.Note 4 Though the latter case affects the populations of the sub-groups of NPRs, the total NPR population is unaffected by this type of change in status.

    The province of residence for each PH is obtained from the valid document. If a person has more than one valid permit, then the province of residence is taken from the permit for which the effective date is closest to the reference date. In some circumstances, the province of residence is not indicated on the document. For cases where this information is missing, CIC has developed an alternative way to attribute a province or territory of residence by using other sources of information. All remaining cases are prorated according to the provincial distribution of PHs for which the province of residence is known or has been derived. In all cases, the province of residence for the principal PH is assumed for the dependants.

    For each province and territory, the number of PHs is a simple accounting of all valid permit holders and their dependants and can be expressed as follows:

    PH
    =
    sum of all PHs and their dependants covered by the valid document on the reference date, as defined above.

    5.2.2 Amount of refugee status claimants

    A person is considered part of the refugee status claimant (RSC) population once a claim has been filed at a Canada Immigration Centre. Effective with the proclamation of Bill C-86 on February 1, 1993, each person claiming refugee status is treated as a separate case (a separate case file is opened for each claimant, including dependants, and is assigned a CID).

    Persons who held legal temporary status in Canada as PHs prior to making a refugee status claim are included in the PH population until the date of their refugee status claim, at which time they are considered to be RSCs.

    Since refugee status claims do not have an expiry date, a withdrawal of a claim, a deportation or being granted landed status has to occur for a claimant to leave the NPR population. For this reason, some assumptions are necessary to ascertain if a claim is still active.

    For RSCs seeking immigrant status:

    1. it is assumed that they will leave the NPR population 2 years after the date of their application for landing unless they do not possess acceptable proof of identity (see (ii) below). This assumption is based on the fact that these applications typically take no longer than 2 years to process;
    2. it is assumed that if they do not have valid proof of identityNote 5 they will leave the NPR population 5 years after the date of application for landing. This assumption is in accordance with the recommendation of the CIC.

    For RSCs not seeking immigrant status:

    1. it is assumed that they will leave the NPR population 2 years after their last communication with CIC. Records of every communication with each client are kept, whether it be to request a status update, file a new application, make an administrative change (e.g., change of address), etc. If there has been no activity over a 2-year period for an RSC, it is assumed that the RSC is no longer an NPR because he or she has either left the country or is deceased.

    The province of residence for each RSC may be obtained from the claim record. If the information is missing or invalid, when possible it is extracted from the permit entry date that is closest to the reference date. The province of residence might not always be indicated in the document. For cases where this information is missing, CIC has developed an alternative way to attribute a province or territory of residence by using other sources of information. All remaining cases are prorated according to the provincial distribution for RSCs where the province of residence is available (or derived).

    Given the above, the amount of RSCs can be expressed as follows:

    For each province and territory:

    1. for claims submitted under Bill C–55 (between January 1, 1989, and January 31, 1993), the total number of persons covered by the active claim on the reference date; plus
    2. for those submitted under Bill C–86 (effective February 1, 1993), the number of active individual claims on the reference date.

    5.2.3 Level of estimates

    The difference between preliminaryNote 6 and final estimates depends on the timeliness of the source used to estimate this component. Estimates of the number and net change of NPRs are revised on an annual basis. Non-permanent resident estimates are preliminary the first year and updated the following year. They become final two to three years after the reference year.

    5.3 NPR estimates by age and sex

    5.3.1 Permit holders

    Though permits include information on the number of persons the document covers, data related to the age and sex are only available for the principal PH. Therefore, the information for principal applicants is obtained directly from the CIC files, while estimation is required for characteristics of their dependants.

    Since data are available for all RSCs who filed under Bill C–86 (one application per person), the age and sex distributions of dependants of principal claimants who also hold permits, are used for the dependants of PHs.

    5.3.2 Refugee status claimants

    Since data are available for all RSCs who filed under Bill C–86, the data on sex and age for these claimants are obtained directly from their valid claim.

    5.4 Net non-permanent residents as a component of change in total population estimates

    The net change of NPRs for a given period is calculated by subtracting the amount of NPRs at the beginning of the period from the amount at the end of the period.

    Equation 5.1:      Δ NPR (t,t+i) = NPR (t+i) − NPR t MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq=Jc9 vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0=yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr=x fr=xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaeuiLdqKaae OtaiaabcfacaqGsbWaaSbaaSqaaiaadIcacaWG0bGaaiilaiaadsha cqGHRaWkcaWGPbGaamykaaqabaGccqGH9aqpcaqGobGaaeiuaiaabk fadaWgaaWcbaGaaiikaiaadshacqGHRaWkcaWGPbGaaiykaaqabaGc cqGHsislcaqGobGaaeiuaiaabkfadaWgaaWcbaGaamiDaaqabaaaaa@4C3A@

    where

    (t,t+i)
    =
    interval between the date of the previous reference period, time t, and the reference date of the estimate, time t+i;
    ΔNP R (t,t+i) MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq=Jc9 vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0=yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr=x fr=xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaeuiLdqKaam OtaiaadcfacaWGsbWaaSbaaSqaaiaacIcacaWG0bGaaiilaiaadsha cqGHRaWkcaWGPbGaaiykaaqabaaaaa@3FD2@
    =
    change in the number of NPRs between time t and time t+i;
    NP R (t+i) MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq=Jc9 vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0=yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr=x fr=xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaamOtaiaadc facaWGsbWaaSbaaSqaaiaacIcacaWG0bGaey4kaSIaamyAaiaacMca aeqaaaaa@3CC3@
    =
    number of NPRs at time t+i;
    NPR t MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq=Jc9 vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0=yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr=x fr=xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaaeOtaiaabc facaqGsbWaaSbaaSqaaiaadshaaeqaaaaa@3994@
    =
    number of NPRs at time t.

    In the Demographic Estimates Program, net change in NPRs is one of the components added to the base population to produce population estimates on a given date.

    Notes

    Date modified: