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Demosim is a microsimulation demographic projection model of Statistics Canada designed to project the Canadian population according to various ethnocultural characteristics. Created in 2004, the model—then known as Popsim—was used to produce Population Projections of Visible Minority Groups, Canada, Provinces and Regions, 2001 to 2017 (Statistics Canada 2005).^Note 1 Its subsequent versions, under the name Demosim, were used to prepare Projections of the Diversity of the Canadian Population, 2006 to 2031 (Statistics Canada 2010), Population Projections by Aboriginal Identity in Canada, 2006 to 2031 (Statistics Canada 2011), Projected trends to 2031 for the Canadian labour force (Martel et al. 2011) and several other analytical and methodological articles,^Note 2 among other uses.

In 2013, a thorough redesign of the projection model was initiated to produce new projections of the Canadian population that use the most recent data sources, including the 2011 National Household Survey (NHS). The purpose of this redesign was to update all parameters of the model, which until that point had been based primarily on data from 2006. It was also intended to meet new projection needs, such as the need for projections of Aboriginal families and households. The Demosim update provided an opportunity to add new components that did not exist in previous versions, and to conduct a comprehensive review of its methods.

The purpose of this report is to give an overview of how the most up-to-date version of the Demosim projection model works, what is its base population, and what are the data sources and methods relative to each component. It is intended as a methodological complement to the analytical report entitled Projections of the Aboriginal Population and Households in Canada, 2011 to 2036, which begins a new cycle of releases of population projections based on the 2011 NHS. This report is to be updated when subsequent analytical reports are released to ensure that any changes to the model, if need be, are documented. The assumptions and scenarios used to present the results of the projection will be described in the analytical reports on the interpretation of the results, and thus are not discussed here.

Lastly, the description of Demosim in this report should be seen as an extension of the documentation related to previous versions of the model.^Note 3 Although the latest version of the model has been completely redesigned and updated, the description of Demosim presented here has been built and expanded on the basis of this documentation.

Notes

Note 1.

See also Bélanger et al. (2008) for a presentation of this version of the model.

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Note 2.

For example, articles have been published on Demosim’s education module (Spielauer 2010), the relationship between immigration and Canada’s age structure (Caron-Malenfant et al. 2011), the relationship between education and the labour force participation of Aboriginal people (Spielauer 2014) and the contribution of immigration to the renewal of Canada’s population (Dion et al. 2015).

Return to note 2 referrer

Note 3.

See Statistics Canada (2005), Statistics Canada (2010) and Statistics Canada (2011) for a description of the Demosim versions used in the projections based on the 2001 and 2006 censuses. Some of the changes made to the current version of Demosim were described in Caron-Malenfant (forthcoming).

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Date modified:: 2015-11-30

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Demosim: An Overview of Methods and Data Sources

Introduction

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