Eh Sayers Episode 25 - Losing Our Religion? It's Not That Simple - Transcript
Transcript
Tegan: Welcome to Eh Sayers, a podcast from Statistics Canada, where we meet the people behind the data and explore the stories behind the numbers. I'm your host, Tegan Bridge.
Every ten years, the census asks Canadians to report their religious affiliation. 2021 was one such census, as were 2011, 2001, and 1991. It's like a recurring radio segment, religion on the 1s! Every decade, we get a new snapshot of the religious composition of our country, giving us a glimpse of the ways our country is evolving.
One recent trend in Canadian religion is the growth of the Muslim, Hindu and Sikh populations. This makes sense, given immigration over the past few decades.
But what I find especially interesting, and what we're doing a deep dive into today, is the rise of the Canadian "religious nones." I'm spelling that N-O-N-E-S, not N-U-N-S, my nones being those with no religious affiliation, rather than the nuns who are members of a religious community of women. And that's what I mean when I say "nones" for the rest of the episode. It's just shorter than saying, "People with no religious affiliation."
The 2021 census found that 12.6 million people reported no religious affiliation. That's more than a third of Canada's population, and it's a proportion that more than doubled in 20 years, rising from 17% in 2001 to 35% in 2021.
Rather than leave these Canadians to be defined by what they are not, that is religiously affiliated, today we're doing a deep dive into Canada's nones (N-O-N-E-S, last reminder). Who are they? What defines this group, brought together by what they are not?
Let's dive in and meet our two guests.
Simon-Pierre: I'm Simon-Pierre Lacasse. I am a senior analyst at the Center for Population and Social Statistics at Statistics Canada.
Sarah: Yeah. Hi everyone. So, my name's Sarah Wilkins-Laflamme. I'm an associate professor in sociology and legal studies at the University of Waterloo.
Tegan: What do we know about the demographic profiles of the religiously unaffiliated?
Simon-Pierre: So, what we know is that the population is, on average, younger. So they average 36 years old as compared to 41.4 for the total Canadian population. There's also a higher proportion who identifies as a male. That's over half of the population, so specifically 52.6, while their part of the total population is just below 50%, 49.4. So, a slight difference there.
We also know that there's a higher proportion who are not married and not living in common law. That would be 46% as compared to their share of the Canadian total population, which is 42%. They're mostly non-immigrants. It's eight in 10 who are non-immigrants as compared to the percentage of non-immigrant and Canadian population, which is at 74.4%.
Tegan: Do you have anything to add to that demographic portrait of Canada's unaffiliated. And were there any surprises in that?
Sarah: Yeah, I mean, no, that's what I'm seeing, but I can dig a little bit more into it.
You mentioned the effect of there's more people who are born in Canada that are part of that group. And on the flip side, there's fewer people born outside of the country as religious nones, but also fewer racialized minorities who are religious nones, right? So you've got about a quarter of racialized minorities in the country who say they have no religion in the 2021 census, and that's compared to about 38% amongst the rest of the population, right? So it's more of a kind of white, born in Canada phenomenon, especially coming from Christianity background.
There's also a regional divide. So, there's higher rates of religious nones out west. So for example, in BC just over half of the population of British Columbia says they have no religion, and that's compared to only about a third in Ontario, for example.
There's other demographic effects we used to have that are gone now.
So there used to be a big divide by level of education and also by rural residents, but we don't see those as much anymore, since the kind of that religious none population has been growing, and the phenomenon having no religion has become kind of more normalized in our societies. So if you want a few more stats, 'cause you know this is the podcast for it.
Tegan: Why not?
Sarah: Uh, why not? Uh, I mean, there's about a third of people without a university diploma in Canada that say they have no religion in the last census. And that's about the same rate as those who have a university diploma. So there's no real education divide. Whereas in the past you would see the university educated folks would have higher rates of saying they have no religion.
And similar thing with rural populations. So, about 36% of people living outside of census metropolitan areas in Canada say they have no religion compared to about 33% amongst those living in the metropolitan areas. So very similar rates now.
So kind of a disappearance of some of the demographic effects we used to see as this phenomenon has become bigger and it's become more normal to say you have no religion in the country.
Tegan: The last census in 2021 found that more than a third of Canada's population reported having no religious affiliation.
Now, okay, when I first saw that data, I was like, "Gosh, that's a lot of atheists!" But it would be a mistake to assume that "no religion" automatically means "atheist." Could you talk about some of the diversity within that no "religion label?"
Sarah: Yeah, so there's lots of identities that we consider more non-religious identities, right? Things like agnostics, so people who are not really sure about the answers to the big questions and don't really think we can know the kind of, you know the meaning to life or the existence of God for example. There's also secular humanists who are similar to atheists, but well a little bit more of a different tradition there, a non-religious tradition. There's freethinkers, which was kind of one of the older labels a lot of people used to give to, to the non-religious folks. Because you know, non-religious people have been around, you know, as long as, you know, Canada has been around. Um, but it's just the size of the population that's grown a lot since the 1960s.
But to be honest, most people who say they have no religion don't really identify with any of those labels, right? They, they're not really thought about it that much. They're nothing in particular, and they're kind of, when you ask them, "oh, are you atheist or agnostic?" They're kinda like, "Eh, I, I don't really fall into any of those categories." Because they haven't really thought about it or cared much about it, and, and they haven't really felt the need to kind of really self-identify with a stronger non-religious identity against a faith group or a religious tradition or for whatever reason, right?
And I mean, there's a lot of different kind of worldviews, opinions, beliefs, spiritualities, within that kind of broad category that is the non-religious. So, you know, there's a few people who are kind of more what you call like rational, science-based, anti-supernatural, and really identify with the, those kind of aspects of the belief system.
But, but a lot of people aren't necessarily that they're just kind of a little bit of everything or, or a whole variety of things. So I can give you some info. I mean, StatCan, doesn't ask about atheism all that much, but in 2023, I was part of a project called the Non-Religion in a Complex Future research project that did a general population survey here in Canada and found that it was only about a quarter of people who said they had no religion who would actually identify specifically as atheists.
So it's only a minority of them that that kind of get that atheist label. For a lot of people, that atheist label is a bit too strong for them. They kind of identify that more with like a combative approach to religion and don't necessarily like that all that much or feel the need to adopt it really.
Tegan: Where are they coming from? This, this is a growing population, but it's not immigration that's fueling this trend. Where's it coming from?
Simon-Pierre: So immigration would not be, uh, the main factor for this increase. So what we see in the data is that the proportion of immigrants who have no religion is, uh, lower than their proportion in the total pop population.
So part of the growth would be better explained in the number of children under 10 who were born in Canada. And whose parents, because in that case it would be the parents who fill the census form, would have reported their kids having no religious affiliation. So what we need to understand there is that the question is specifically asked in a way that parents, who report for their kids, should report the religion in which the children are being raised. So if they themselves declare having no religion or secular perspective, then they are most likely going to report the same for their kids.
So that's the first factor, children. And the second factor is basically the way that individuals are going to respond or change responses between census cycles. So, you know, religiosity or religious affiliation is something that can change throughout a person's life. So someone can report being Catholic in 2011, and then really no longer feel that this is the response that best described their religious affiliation. And then change your response in 2021 to no religion. So that would be… the second factor is what we refer to as basically response fluidity or mobility, someone changing their response between census cycles.
Tegan: Affiliation with a religion is just one part of the picture, an important part, but if you really want to know about religion in Canada, you have to dig deeper.
Other, other than religious affiliation, which is where somebody self-identifies and says, "I am X, Y, Z," what are some of the other ways that we can measure religiosity?
Simon-Pierre: Right. So, obviously the question that we include in the census really only means to ask if someone, you know, self-identifies as having a connection to a religion. But it doesn't ask questions on whether the person actually practices their religion. And in fact, we make clear in the census that someone can report having a religious affiliation even if they don't practice. So we have a different set of questions that are included in a separate survey called the General Social Survey that seeks to measure religiosity.
So religiosity can be defined in different ways, but basically what we're interested in measuring in this survey is the participation to religious activities. And the frequency of this participation as well. We are also interested in knowing if someone practices, individual forms of religious practices, and also if they believe that their religious convictions are important in the way that they live their lives.
So, this is what we understand to be in the real realm of religiosity. Rather than just merely religious affiliation, that does not entail a form of practice, really. Religiosity does.
Tegan: One of the stats that I found most interesting was that there are folks who have no religious affiliation, but who are still religiously active. Could you talk about that?
Simon-Pierre: It is indeed an interesting phenomenon.
So what we notice in the data from the General Social Survey is that 17% of those who report having no religious affiliation or secular perspectives did participate in group religious activities at least once a year. So in this context, what that refers to is someone who identifies as not having a religion but might have attended one ritual, for instance, you know, a Christmas mass or a mass around around Easter, which, you know, in the specific context of Catholicism have been the most attended rituals historically. So that could be understood in general to be part of what sociologists and researchers have coined as a form of cultural religiosity.
So that's another way of saying like religiosity and religious affiliation are two very different things.
Tegan: And that would exclude people going to a religious friend's wedding or a funeral.
Simon-Pierre: Very good point. So when we collect that data, the question is being framed specifically to exclude weddings and funerals, which are of course, like widely attended religious rituals in most cases.
Tegan: The General Social Survey found that between 2017 and 2019, 17% of nones attended a religious activity with a group once a year. That seems to me like a large number, and I totally buy Simon-Pierre's suggestion of annual religious traditions. But 2% of nones attended a religious activity with a group at least once a month.
Maybe it's just me, but I find both of those very surprising. And could you talk in a practical way, what might this look like? What kind of religious practices are the nones engaging in and why?
Sarah: Yeah. No, great question. I'll give you maybe an example of one of our research participants here. So, Darlene, which is a pseudonym for the research participant that my colleague Joel Thiessen interviewed in Alberta in the early 2000s. So, Darlene is a former evangelical who became self-identified religious none, so disaffiliated from her original faith group by the time that Joel had interviewed her, and, you know, she had left the religious group for a few reasons. She didn't really agree with some of the beliefs that were being taught. She felt the group was kind of too all encompassing, a bit too controlling of her life, and so she chose to leave the group. But you know, Darlene in the interview was still saying, you know, she still believed in God. She still enjoyed listening to choir music from time to time. And she also mentioned that she still attends the occasional, especially Christmas, religious service when visiting her mom. But it wasn't so much a religious experience anymore for her. It was more of a way just to kind of please her mother, something to do with the family, and also, like, to avoid family conflict. Yes. What we're all trying to do over the holidays usually.
Tegan: Yes.
Sarah: We call this kind of vestiges of religion in some ways, right? So there, they're common amongst those who were raised in a religion who, what we have what we call religious socialization as kids and as teenagers, but who decide to leave the religion at some point when they reached adulthood. So we call them disaffiliates that way. And compared especially to those who were born non-religious, what we call the cradle non-religious, they don't have usually as much of these vestiges of religion, but people who were brought up with religion, you know, still see some benefit, like for things like community and for some kind of practices tied to comfort as well that they, you know, still do a few things related to religion and spirituality. And I mean, there's, there's also like a very small group who are actually quite active in a faith group, but don't necessarily identify with any specific religious tradition as like an identity decision there.
But for the most part, it's kind of these leftover practices and beliefs or these more spiritual, less conventional spiritualities that have been picked up elsewhere, maybe from often a female member of the family or friend group, it seems to be women are especially into those practices and beliefs.
Or, you know, maybe you found it online, you're with a digital group, a community that's into those practices and beliefs. And so again, you see a bit of everything, but it's especially kind of like these remnants of a religious upbringing. And for some people, you know, they can still take part in a faith group, but it's not necessarily for what we might think like a belief reasons or actually like, you know, holding faith with a certain deity. But it's more about kind of the community aspect, the family aspect, maybe a bit of comfort aspect, throwing back to what they used to do as when they were younger.
Tegan: It is very easy I think, you mentioned, you know, some people might practice meditation, which would be categorized as a spiritual practice, but I wouldn't necessarily categorize meditation at all as a spiritual practice.
Sarah: This is the big definition question, right?
Tegan: Mm-hmm.
Sarah: Yoga is a very popular activity in Canada. There's about a quarter of the population who does yoga at least once a month o related forms of mindfulness and meditation practice. Some people define that as a spiritual practice. Yoga does have roots in Hinduism.
Tegan: Mm-hmm.
Sarah: And was kind of a more westernized version of some eastern spiritualities. But a lot of people don't define it necessarily as a spiritual practice. They do it more for like their physical fitness or just for relaxation or mental well-being. And that's how it's been kind of redefined in some ways in our western societies.
Tegan: Mm-hmm.
Sarah: As yoga has wanted to move into schools and want to move into workplaces where typically religious practices are, you know, everyone freaks out a bit about them and are considered more privatized, don't think they should be in the public school system. And that's the approach that a lot of governments in Canada take. So yoga has kind of redefined itself as a more kind of physical practice or like a, you know, phys ed or well-being practice to kind of move into these new spaces in our society. And it's been working so far.
Tegan: The 2001 census found that only about 17% of the population had no religion. So it's about doubled in 20 years. What kind of dynamics are driving this change?
Sarah: So if you're raised within a religious family, you're much more likely to be religious as an adult than if you're raised in a non-religious family. So nowadays, again, based on that 2023 Nonreligion in a Complex Future survey data I was talking about earlier, there's just over half of religious nones who were raised that way, right? So we call those the cradle nones, right? So they raised non-religious. Family never really did anything tied to religion. It's actually like the parents considered it almost like a hands-off upbringing towards religions. Like, "oh, well if they're interested, they'll pick it up. They can do what they want." But in reality, that means that if it's not kind of given importance in the family, original family household, a lot of people don't usually pick it up, right?
You know, there's always exceptions that some people might pick up a spirituality or religion later in life, but as the trend, most will go on to say they have no religion. It's like something, a crazy number. Like over 90% of people who are raised a non-religious household remain non-religious as adults. And so that's about half of your religious nones population. That's the cradle nones.
And then there's about another half, or just under half, who were brought up with a religion, but who became non-religious as adults, right? So what we call the disaffiliates, who left religion. And often that typically happens, again as a trend, around your late teens, early adult years.
You can leave religion later in life. But if you are gonna leave your religion, it often happens as you're kind of transitioning out of your original parental household, you're moving, you're kind of creating new friendship networks, new partnerships potentially. And so in that case, that's when some people, not everyone, it's usually about a third of people raised in religion these days who disaffiliate later on in their teens or early adulthood who, if that disaffiliation happens, that's a key moment when it will. And most of those disaffiliates are coming from Christianity. Like it's almost all of them are coming from Christian backgrounds, and the cradle nones are often from families that a few generations ago were also Christian, right? It's, it's not everyone, but again, as the trend. And so that's kind of, so it's kind of like almost like an even split now between people who raised on religious and then people who are kind of continuing that process of kind of, well maybe their upbringing wasn't quite as religious as it was in the past. And then they are kind of decide at some moment to kind of leave their faith and become non-religious.
Tegan: So the story of religion in Canada really varies wildly across the country. We've learned that BC has some of the lowest rates of affiliation in the country, but I saw you call it "spiritual British Columbia." Why?
Sarah: Yeah. I kind of mean it in the, like the spiritual but not religious sense, right?
Tegan: Mm-hmm.
Sarah: So, yeah, in BC I mentioned earlier on over half the population says they have no religion right in their last census.
When I did that national survey with millennials, the 18- to 35-year-olds in 2019. Looking at the millennials who said they had no religion, there's about 23% of them in BC that would self-identify as spiritual without a religion, right? And that was the highest rate in the country at the time and amongst that demographic. There's about a third of millennials who say they have no religion in BC, who still say that their spiritual beliefs are very or somewhat important in their lives. Again, one of the highest rates amongst young adults across the country.
And there is 43% of those religious none millennials in BC. So almost half of them say they took part in activity at least once in the year prior to the survey that they defined as spiritual. Again, the highest rate that you'd see across the country. So it's not all non-religious BC folks who are into spiritual matters, but a larger proportion are. And I mean, you know, we could talk about this, but BC really has this kind of ethos and some kind of distinct socialization and even public discourse that really kind of feeds into this kind of spirituality, kind of obviously removed from organized religion, but spirituality narrative. So we're thinking about like, you know, the kind of nature experience that is so, when you go to BC, it's so prominent in like, you know, even things like just companies advertising their products through that kind of nature experience. If you think of like Mountain Equipment Co-Op or someone like that, or just kind of just general people talking about their experiences, they seem to be much more used to and okay with using this kind of spirituality label and concept to define what they're doing. Yeah.
Tegan: If I can skip across the country to Quebec, we know that Quebec has a trend of cultural Catholicism, but without practicing, as we were just saying. Could you expand on that? What distinguishes Quebec from other regions in Canada?
Sarah: Yeah, so, so Quebec always a fascinating case. Always very distinct in its religious and spiritual landscape. It's always had lower rates of people who said they have no religion. So before the 1960s, that was because the vast majority of the population were practicing Catholics, right? They were regularly attending Mass and other doing other religious activities. And then with the Quiet Revolution, that practice kind of very quickly, very quickly dropped. But a lot of people kept the Catholic identity, right? And that's who we call those cultural Catholics. So these are people who don't necessarily... are, they're not really involved with the Catholic Church that much. They actually don't like the Catholic Church that much. They don't agree with much of its tenets. But they still see a link between their kind of family heritage as well as their national Quebec identity as Québécois with that Catholic identity. And so don't wanna leave that Catholic identity behind. And we saw very high rates of that cultural Catholicism right up until pretty recently.
So for example, in StatCan's 2011 national household surveys—so not that long ago—there was about three quarters of Quebec residents that said they were Catholic. But almost none of them attended religious services, right? And there was only 12% of the population who said they had no religion. However we've started to see a softening of that cultural Catholicism.
So in the last census in 2021, we saw a very big drop in that rate of cultural Catholics. So where it was three quarters in 2011, in 2021, it was only about half the population. So it's still a big chunk of the Quebec population who self-identifies as Catholic, but doesn't really do a whole lot about it. But it's a much smaller chunk than only in the last decade, for example. So now there's about 27% of the population who says they have no religion, and that is, you know, that rate is climbing, especially amongst younger demographics, amongst youth. But it's actually also affected all age groups to a certain effect.
But there's other ways that that Catholic heritage seems to impact people. So we did a, I was part of a project that went and did a lot of interviews in Quebec and Gatineau and Montréal and Québec City especially, where they talk about, you know, talk to young people of various backgrounds. So more involved with the Catholic Church or different religious groups or people who had no religion.
And what I found fascinating was that, you know, amongst, a small number, but still like a number enough that was big enough to notice was that there were like some, some people who like were said, they had no religion. They said they were like adamant atheist, like convinced atheists, you know, really didn't like the Catholic Church. But then like a few minutes later in the interview would talk about how they had real time discussions with their deceased grandmother that they visualize as a little angel on their shoulder. Right? And this was just like, "Oh, do you kind of think of your deceased grandmother time to time that way?" And they're like, "No, no. Like I actually have direct talks with—" I mean, it's mostly them talking to the deceased grandmother.
Tegan: Yeah.
Sarah: So this could be at like key important moments of their lives, or it could just be like, everyday conversation with their deceased grandmothers and that they visualize as like a little angel on their shoulder. And I mean, that is like heavy Catholic symbolism and beliefs that are still having an impact a few generations later. Even amongst people who haven't had a whole lot of Catholic upbringing and who say they have no religion, but are kind of still have some of the symbolism and ways of thinking of kind of their ancestors and the afterlife and their world that is still impacted by that kind of original Catholic heritage. Yeah.
Tegan: I absolutely love that story.
Sarah: Yeah, I mean, it was so fascinating. Like, so you're actually talking… and you know, as a researcher you're like, okay, okay. Like, 'cause it's, it's one thing to talk to a more religious person who talks that… who discusses that and it's like, okay, that's kind of… that fits within your belief system. But then it's another thing to talk to, like, someone who's saying they're an adamant atheist, and then they're going full on with like angel on the shoulder, deceased, and it's always the grandmother. It's like the maternal line that seems to be especially important there and it's like, okay, that that is like super fascinating. Yeah.
Tegan: Over now to Atlantic Canada. Atlantic Canada some of the highest numbers of religiosity in the country, at least among older adults, but that trend doesn't seem to hold with the youngest cohort. Could you talk about that?
Sarah: Yeah, so Atlantic Canada, another super fascinating case. These big regional divides across the country on this, right?
Tegan: Mm-hmm.
Sarah: And I mean, so yeah, Atlantic Canada is where kind of what we call the Christianity indicators, like the population indicators, like, so how many people go to religious services, how many people affiliate with different Christian groups? They did a bit better in Atlantic Canada, have done a bit better than across the country, especially if you compare to like, say BC where they've really crashed.
And so, you know, for a lot of older demographics still the vast majority identify with Christianity. So if you look at, for example, that 65 plus birth cohort in Atlantic Canada. So the four Atlantic provinces, like 86% of them identify with some Christian tradition, usually one of the big Protestant or Catholic groups, right?
And now that number has steeply declined amongst young people.
Tegan: Mm-hmm.
Sarah: It's still a little bit… The rate of people who have no religion is still a bit, a little bit lower in Atlantic Canada than the rest of the country. So, for example, amongst the whole population, it's about 29% of Atlantic Canadians who say they have no religion.
But again, a much higher rate amongst younger folks, right? So again, almost half of the 18- to 35-year-olds in Atlantic to say they have no religion. So again, that generational effect, right, that we see across western democracies, liberal democracies, including here in Canada, including Atlantic Canada.
But I think it was more that amongst the old demographics, those Christian indicators were so strong because there was kind of like, I always think of like that kind of old Canada ties between identity and Christianity and, you know, going to church and being part of a Christian community, that more quickly fell away.
Like again in Quebec, we saw like a two moment fall. Like the first fall was in the sixties when people stopped going to church. And then the second moment was more recently when people left Catholic identity behind. In, in Atlantic Canada was more like a quick one moment fall where those, those incators were pretty strong. You know, obviously these changes do happen over decades.
Tegan: Mm-hmm.
Sarah: But, but it was a bit more quick and striking amongst the younger demographics, which, you know, a lot of people are moving out east now, especially with the pandemic and the possibility of remote work and more affordable housing and, you know, just a vibrant communities out East now.
And so, you know, a lot of people from other parts of the country are bringing their ways of doing, especially non-religion, to Atlantic Canada as well, right? So it's all, this is going on, but I'm always struck by, like, my dad lives in New Brunswick when I go and visit him in the summer, you know, the churches have a fresh coat of paint on them in New Brunswick and in other parts of Atlantic Canada. Not so much the case in other parts of the country when you go visit them, some of the churches look pretty run down now. So I'm always struck by, you know, Christianity, if it's doing okay in, in, in one part of the country, it is still Atlantic Canada. Yeah.
Tegan: Obviously we could keep talking about this, but we could be here all day. Were there any regional differences that you think deserve to be highlighted before we move on?
Sarah: It's always good to keep in mind that the Canadian average is more what Ontario looks like, right? Because Ontario is such a big chunk of the population also in this case with religious trends. It's also like, kind of in the middle. So like if the West Coast has really high rates of non-religion, the East coast has lower rates of non-religion, Ontario finds itself somewhere in the middle, and that looks like what our overall average is.
And so there, there's that. I mean, the Prairies have their own thing going on, but at the same time, they're kind of building towards the West coast. So there's high rates of non-religion in the Prairies than say in Ontario, and then you get to really high rates more in Alberta and BC.
I mean, the other part of the country we haven't talked about is the Northern territories. So like Yukon, Nunavut, Northwest Territories. I mean, they have really high rates of non-religion as well, especially tied to the fact that a lot of Indigenous Peoples don't identify with this kind of thing that we say is religion in a, kind of more what is a more kind of colonial label of religion and Christianity. There are still a lot of people who, a lot of Indigenous Peoples who are affiliated with Christianity and that identity is meaningful to them, but a big chunk of them are not. And some will identify with Indigenous spiritualities, some won't really identify spiritualities, from their Nation, First Nation as religion. They'll identify it more as their way of life. Right. So it's, this is where we run into like a struggle.
Tegan: Mm-hmm.
Sarah: Like a problem with the concept of religion. It is a western concept of religion that has very strong colonial tones to it for Indigenous Peoples. And so, it's not a label that necessarily works for a lot of them, and so you almost need like their own way of studying it to do it, which is still heavily understudied in the country. So I think there's a lot of research to be done by members of Indigenous communities themselves to kind of see, you know, where are they at in current times with their kind of various traditional ways of life and spiritualities throughout the North and also across the country. Right.
Tegan: I'm glad we touched on that 'cause that was one of the things I found most interesting when we were first exploring the topic of religion that I came across. This is a very Western modern idea, and if you go, you know, go around the world or go back in time and you ask, "What's your religion?" People would have no idea what you're talking about.
Sarah: No, religion comes about in the West when we start thinking of religious life as separate from other spheres of life, right? So round the kind of Renaissance, late Renaissance period when Western societies start separating politics, education, health from religion, and start kind of isolating religious groups as something as distinct, rather than saying, being part of all of life, like it was more, say in the Medieval Ages, for example. That's when the term religion actually starts being used, and it only really works for societies where you have that division between something that we're defining as religious and everything else. Whereas for a lot of Indigenous communities there, there's no distinction there, right? There are spiritualities. Their ways of life are part of everything. They're part of, you know, their, how they engage with nature, there's all their life ceremonies, their daily lives. And so to have this thing that's called religion that is somehow different from the rest of what people do doesn't really work for their kind of, their, their way of understanding the world. Right. And so, yeah, there's, it only really works at this kind of point in time for Western societies, especially for Western populations. Yeah.
Tegan: Respondents were asked about religion on the last census in 2021, but they won't be asked again until 2031.
What do you think are some of the factors that are going to influence the size of Canada's nones in the near future? And N-O-N-E-S, of course.
Sarah: Yeah. Of the N-O-N-E-S variety. I mean, listen, uh, this is where I put the caveat in, is that, you know…
Tegan: mm-hmm.
Sarah: No one's good at predicting the future. Any, any field of science or anyone is terrible at predicting the future. So take this with a grain of salt,
Tegan: Of course.
Sarah: But if we're looking at current trends and kind of possibilities for the near future, at least. I think that rate of religious nuns is gonna continue to grow for the foreseeable future. So I am expecting a larger proportion of the population in 2031 to say they have no religion than they do now, right? We've mentioned it was just over a third in 2021. I expect that to grow. Again, especially 'cause of that generational replacement effect, right? So older demographics are passing away. Those demographics were typically more religious on average. Now, members of younger generations who are less religious on average, are gonna make up a big share of the population in 2031. So our trends will look, our averages will look more like what they're doing now. And I mentioned that the rates of having no religion are almost at 50% now.
There's also a few factors that people ask about, like, you mentioned immigration earlier on. I can come back to it. People are like, "Oh, well, but will immigration, you know, offset that?" And not, not really. I don't expect it to. I mean, we've had very religiously diversified immigration, especially since the 1990s here in Canada, and it hasn't been enough to disrupt the trend. It's definitely changed the religious landscape. We have a lot more religious diversity than we did before. But it hasn't really disrupted that trend of a certain population saying more and more that they have no religion and those groups representing a big chunk of the Canadian population, right? And now the government, at least recently, has begun to cut its immigration quotas. So we're now below population replacement levels for the next few years. So I don't really expect immigration to offset that rise of no religion.
The other factor people ask about is, "Oh, well, religious populations have higher fertility rates. They have more kids." And they do, uh, compared with the non-religious here in Canada. But that being said, that's often offset by that disaffiliation trend. An Evangelical Protestant family that has three kids, on average, one of those kids won't be religious when they become adults. And so again, that's an average, it's not for everyone, but that is the trend. And so that disaffiliation is enough to offset those higher fertility rates, at least by the looks of things in Canada at least for the years to come.
And I'm not really foreseeing any big structural changes to our society in the near future, on the near horizon that could disrupt those changes in values. I mean, that would really have to change for us to see a big change in trends, and I don't really foresee that happening.
Tegan: Thank you very much. This was a fascinating discussion. I really appreciate your time and your expertise.
Sarah: Well, thank you. It was great.
Tegan: Simon-Pierre, and why do we care about the religious composition of Canada? Why does that matter?
Simon-Pierre: So it's one of the, it's one of the, the oldest question in terms of measuring the ethnocultural diversity in Canada. So it had been included in the Canadian census since, uh, the very first census after confederation in 1871. And it has been asked every 10 years ever since. And it's really a core dimension of the ethnocultural diversity of the country. And really to understand the wealth or the complexity of this diversity, we need to look at it from various angles and religion is, is one of them.
So we have other variables measured in the census to look at the ethnocultural diversity, such as the data that we collect on population groups, you know, to present data on visible minorities. Now we mostly use the term racialized. Also data on ethnic or cultural origin, which refers to the ancestry of one's person. And then different data on immigrations. But all of those data are basically linked and interdependent to one another, including religion as well. So, to get a full picture, you need data on religion.
It's been clear in the past few years that there's been a rise in different hate crimes that are related to antisemitism, to Islamophobia. So having benchmark data from the census to measure those populations is absolutely crucial in this context.
Tegan: Thank you very much for your time. It's greatly appreciated.
Simon-Pierre: No, you're most welcome. Thank you.
Tegan: You've been listening to Eh Sayers. Thank you to our guests, Simon-Pierre Lacasse and Sarah Wilkins-Laflamme.
To learn more and peruse the wealth of StatCan's data on religion...
Simon-Pierre: Perhaps a good entry point would be to consult the hub on gender diversity and inclusion statistics that you can find online.
Tegan: There's a ton of information available on the hub, and you can find that on the StatCan website.
If you'd like to learn more about Sarah's work...
Sarah: Yeah, so a lot of the material I was talking about today, I drew from two of my more recent books. So one of them is called None of the Above, and that's the one I co-authored with Joel Thiessen. The other book is Religion, Spirituality, and Secularity among Millennials. But you know, you can just Google my name, Sarah Wilkins-Laflamme, and you'll find a lot of kind of free blogs and online videos I've done over the past few years. And you can always look my profile up at the University of Waterloo where you'll find my email address. And if you're interested, please do reach out. I'd love to hear from you, and I can send you to more stuff and I can answer any questions you have. I'm always happy to hear from people who are interested by this topic.
Tegan: You can subscribe to this show wherever you get your podcasts. There, you can also find the French version of our show, called Hé-coutez bien! If you liked this show, please rate, review, and subscribe. And thanks for listening!
