Monthly international merchandise trade data incorporated in the Canadian macroeconomic accounts for the third quarter of 2025

Today, Statistics Canada released Canada's balance of international payments (BOP) statistics for the third quarter of 2025. Tomorrow, November 28, statistics on Canada's gross domestic product (GDP) by expenditure will also be published. Both the quarterly BOP and the GDP by expenditure statistics rely on international merchandise trade data as an input.

On October 1, 2025, a partial shutdown of the US federal government came into effect, suspending operations at certain government agencies, including the United States Census Bureau (USCB), the US statistical agency responsible for compiling international merchandise trade statistics. For the duration of the shutdown (43 days), Statistics Canada did not receive data on Canadian exports to the United States for the reference month of September, the third month of the third quarter of 2025, and did not publish Canadian international trade data as scheduled for that month. Despite the resumption of operations at the USCB on November 13, data on Canada's exports to the United States for the September reference month were not received on time for the compilation of the quarterly BOP and GDP statistics.

Therefore, exceptionally this quarter, special estimates on Canadian international merchandise exports to the United States for the reference month of September were produced to compile third quarter statistics. These estimates were assembled using statistical forecasting models (auto-regressive integrated moving average), preliminary actual data (for crude oil, natural gas and electricity) and data confrontation using internal and external sources. Statistics on exports of goods to countries other than the United States for the September reference month, as well as on all imports of goods, were compiled using the usual administrative data sources. Data for the months of July and August were not impacted by the US shutdown.

Tables published within this release detail the data that were used to complete the compilation of quarterly BOP and GDP statistics for the third quarter. The tables and tools usually published on Statistics Canada's website with monthly international trade data will not be released until the official September reference month publication, now tentatively scheduled for December 11, 2025.

In addition, to incorporate international trade data into Canada's GDP, Statistics Canada uses price indexes to produce exports and imports in real terms. Price data from the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and unit values from the USCB are important sources in the compilation of price indexes for Canadian exports and imports. With both BLS and USCB operations being affected by the US government shutdown, Statistics Canada used alternative strategies in its deflation process, including standard imputation techniques.

In accordance with the revision policies for quarterly BOP and GDP statistics, data for the third quarter of 2025 will be updated in late February 2026, when statistics for the fourth quarter of 2025 will be published to include actual US data for the month of September. Users should therefore expect that these updates could result in larger than normal revisions, particularly at more detailed levels.

New tentative publication dates for Canadian international merchandise trade statistics

Statistics Canada and the USCB have identified tentative new joint release dates for several upcoming reference months.

Canada's international merchandise trade statistics for the September 2025 reference month are now scheduled to be published on December 11, 2025; for the October 2025 reference month, on January 8, 2026; for the November 2025 reference month, on January 29, 2026; for the December 2025 reference month, on February 19, 2026, and for the January 2026 reference month, on March 12, 2026. These dates apply equally for the publication of monthly data on Canada's international trade in services and remain subject to change. Statistics Canada will communicate any updates to release dates should changes be necessary. Following these releases, it is expected that the publication of monthly international trade statistics will return to the originally planned release schedule.

Table 1: Exports and imports of goods: Canada's top 10 principal trading partners – Seasonally adjusted, current dollars, January to September 2025

Table 2: Merchandise trade: North American Product Classification System – Balance-of-payments basis, seasonally adjusted, current dollars, January to September 2025

Table 3: Merchandise trade: North American Product Classification System – chained 2017 dollars, January to September 2025