Will Black Friday hit differently this year for consumers and retailers in a changing economic landscape?

Black Friday is just around the corner. It’s an opportunity to load up on bargains galore, and for some, to get a head start on holiday shopping.

This year might feel different on both sides of the cash register. For many consumers, affordability and inflation are top of mind. For retailers, the current economic environment might influence sticker prices and inventory.

Against this backdrop, let’s ring up the latest data.

Inflation, affordability, disposable income and debt

First up, inflation. The Consumer Price Index rose 2.2% from October 2024 to October 2025. Over the same period, there were minimal price changes in certain categories of items in the lead-up to Black Friday, such as clothing (-1.4%), and footwear (+0.1%).

Meanwhile, there was a considerable increase in prices for cellular services (+7.7%)—the first year-over-year increase in this category since April 2023—and for home entertainment equipment, parts and services (+7.5%). There was a considerable decrease in prices for digital computing equipment and devices (-7.2%).

Still, though inflation has slowed since reaching a 40-year high in June 2022, prices have continued to rise and affordability remains a concern for many Canadians. In the spring of 2025, one in four (24.1%) Canadians reported that it was easy or very easy for their household to meet its financial needs, down from nearly half (47.7%) in the summer of 2021.

In the second quarter of 2025, disposable income (average of all household income quintiles) grew by an average of 3.9% from a year earlier; however this growth was slower than the rate observed from the second quarter of 2023 to the second quarter of 2024 (+5.9%).

In September 2025, Canadian households owed nearly $805 billion in non-mortgage loans, including credit cards and personal loans—the highest monthly amounts on record since we started tracking these data in 1990. Homeowners also owed nearly $179 billion in home equity lines of credit, the highest figure since March 2020.

Retail sales in 2025 ahead of the same period in 2024

Though some consumers may have a limited ability to spend in 2025, overall retail sales appear on pace to finish the year strong.

In November 2024, Canadian retailers reported $71.0 billion in sales (unadjusted), up year over year from $69.2 billion in November 2023. Cyber Monday’s timing in December 2024 possibly contributed to the larger uptick to $72.0 billion in sales that month from $69.1 billion a year earlier.

From January to September 2025, nationwide retail sales have reached $618.8 billion, ahead of the $591.1 billion tallied during the same period in 2024.

What retailers are saying about sales, prices and consumer demand

The steady retail sales numbers perhaps point to what some businesses expect for the rest of the year. In the fourth quarter of 2025, roughly one in four businesses (25.3%) in the retail trade sector expect an increase in sales over the next three months, according to the latest data from the Canadian Survey on Business Conditions (CSBC). More than half (54.7%) of retail businesses expect sales to stay the same, though a considerable proportion (18.3%) expect a decrease.

Almost 3 in 10 (29.5%) retail trade businesses expect to increase prices over the next three months, while close to two-thirds (63.1%) expect to hold them steady and 5.7% expect to lower them.

About one in four (25.8%) retail trade businesses expect an increase in demand for their goods and services, while more than one in five (21.2%) expect a decrease in demand over the next three months.

Inflation (45.8%), recruiting skilled employees (35.4%) and fluctuations in consumer demand (34.2%) are the three most commonly expected obstacles by retail businesses over the next three months.

Current economic environment

In the fourth quarter of 2025, the CSBC also asked businesses about the effects of US tariffs and Canadian tariff countermeasures.

More than one-third (37.8%) of retail trade businesses said they are very likely to pass cost increases due to tariffs onto their customers over the next 12 months, while 25.2% said they are somewhat likely to do so.

Roughly 3 in 10 (30.3%) retail trade businesses said they experienced an increase in sales of their Canadian products over the last six months, while more than half (52.8%) said they did not. Over the same period, about half (50.5%) of retail trade businesses changed their marketing practices to promote Canadian products, while more than two in five (42.5%) did not.