Annual Demographic Estimates: Subprovincial Areas, July 1, 2016
Section 2: Economic regions and regional portraitsAnnual Demographic Estimates: Subprovincial Areas, July 1, 2016
Section 2: Economic regions and regional portraits

Regional portrait: Atlantic provinces

The Halifax economic region saw the largest population increase in the Atlantic provinces^Note 1

Of the economic regions (ERs) in the Atlantic provinces, the Halifax ER (N.S.) posted the largest annual population growth (+19.4 per thousand) between July 1, 2015, and June 30, 2016.

It was followed by the Prince Edward Island ER (P.E.I.) and the Fredericton–Oromocto ER (N.B.), with annual population increases of 13.0 per thousand and 10.9 per thousand, respectively. Of the 15 ERs in the Atlantic provinces, four posted positive or zero population increases: Avalon Peninsula (N.L.) at 9.5 per thousand, Moncton–Richibucto at 9.2 per thousand, Saint John–St. Stephen (N.B.) at 2.9 per thousand, and Annapolis Valley (N.S.) at 0.4 per thousand.

The Halifax ER (N.S.) also had the largest population on July 1, 2016, with 426,100 residents, ahead of the Avalon Peninsula ER (N.L.) and the Moncton–Richibucto ER (N.B.), whose populations were 280,400 and 213,800, respectively.

Of the 15 ERs in the Atlantic provinces, 8 saw their population decline between July 1, 2015, and July 1, 2016. The sharpest population decrease in the Atlantic provinces occurred in the ER of South Coast–Burin Peninsula (N.L.), which saw its population drop by approximately 500 persons (-13.8 per thousand). Since 2011, this region’s population has gone from 38,200 to 35,800. The other ERs that posted the largest decreases include Edmunston–Woodstock (N.B.) and Cape Breton (N.S.), with annual growth rates of -7.7 per thousand and -7.4 per thousand, respectively.

Although most of the ERs in the Atlantic provinces recorded population decreases, their population growth rates were still greater in 2015/2016 than in 2014/2015. The ERs that declined in 2014/2015 had smaller decreases in the last year, while the population of the Annapolis Valley and Saint John–St. Stephen ERs is now stable or increasing.

Of the 10 ERs across Canada with the largest decreases, four were in the Atlantic provinces.

The population growth rate for the most recent period (2015/2016) was above the average annual rate for the last five-year period (2011-2016) in 13 of the 15 ERs in the Atlantic provinces, which reflects an accelerating population growth for positive rates or a decelerating decline for negative rates.

Population gains due to international migration

The seven ERs with positive population growth in 2015/2016 were characterized by positive net international migration. By contrast, in the 10 ERs with negative growth, natural increase, interprovincial migration and intraprovincial migration were almost all negative or nil. Lastly, net interprovincial migration was negative or nil in every ER in the Atlantic provinces, except for the Notre Dame–Central Bonavista Bay ER (N.L.) (4.4 per thousand) and the Southern ER (N.S.) (1.1 per thousand).

With a rate of 2.9 per thousand, the Halifax ER (N.S.) had the highest natural increase in the Atlantic provinces. However, it was still lower than the rate for Canada (+3.4 per thousand). Fredericton–Oromocto (N.B.) was the only other ER that posted a natural increase, at 1.8 per thousand. By contrast, a number of ERs recorded natural decreases, indicating that there were more estimated deaths than births. For example, the Notre Dame–Central Bonavista Bay (N.L.) posted the lowest rate of natural increase (-4.9 per thousand). In all, of the 10 ERs with the greatest natural decrease, seven were in the Atlantic provinces.

International migration was the main driver of growth in ERs of the Atlantic provinces that had positive or nil population growth rates. This component of population growth was the greatest in the Prince Edward Island ER (P.E.I.) (+18.0 per thousand), at twice the national average (+8.7 per thousand). International migration was a marginal factor of growth in only three ERs in the Atlantic provinces, with growth rates of 0 to 1 per thousand.

In 9 of the 15 ERs in the Atlantic provinces, net interprovincial migration was negative. Notre Dame–Central Bonavista Bay (N.L.) was the ER that had the largest interprovincial migration gain in the Atlantic provinces, with a rate of 4.4 per thousand. The largest decline attributable to interprovincial migration occurred in the Prince Edward Island ER (P.E.I.), with a rate of -4.9 per thousand, representing a net loss of 700 people.

In Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador, only the most highly populated ERs posted gains attributable to intraprovincial migration. These ERs were Halifax (N.S.) and Avalon Peninsula (N.L.), with increases of 1,300 and 1,100 persons, respectively. In New Brunswick, two ERs posted positive net intraprovincial migration. They were the Moncton–Richibucto ER (N.B.) (+600 persons) and the Fredericton–Oromocto ER (N.B.) (+400 persons).

Older age structure of the population in all Atlantic ERs than in the rest of Canada

On July 1, 2016, there were no Atlantic ERs with a proportion of 0- to 14-year-olds above the national average (16.1%). As well, the share of persons aged 65 years and older in each Atlantic ER was higher than in Canada as a whole (16.5%), except in the Halifax ER (N.S.) (15.1%).

Of all ERs in Canada, the Southern ER (N.S.) had the highest proportion of persons aged 65 years and older (25.1%) on July 1, 2016. In the Atlantic provinces, the Halifax ER (N.S.) had the lowest proportion of persons in this age group (15.1%).

The 0-14 age group represented 15.9% of the population of the Fredericton–Oromocto ER (N.B.), the highest proportion in the Atlantic provinces. Conversely, it was in the Campbellton–Miramichi ER (N.B.) that those aged 0 to 14 years accounted for the smallest share (12.1%). On July 1, 2016, the number of persons aged 65 years and older was greater than the number aged 0 to 14 years in every Atlantic ER. However, three regions had a proportion of working-age persons (15 to 64 years) above the national average (67.4%)—the Halifax ER (N.S.), Avalon Peninsula ER (N.L.) and Fredericton–Oromocto ER (N.B.)—while the Southern ER (N.S.) had the lowest proportion (62.4%) among the Atlantic regions.

The relatively old age structure of several ERs in the Atlantic provinces can be attributed to lower fertility than in the rest of Canada. In fact, rates of natural increase have remained negative in a number of ERs over the last decade and are tending to fall. In addition, persistent negative net interprovincial migration, especially among those aged 18 to 29 years, is contributing to the aging of the population in Atlantic ERs. For example, the decrease in interprovincial migration rates for this age group in 2015/2016 was very high in Newfoundland and Labrador (-8.9 per thousand), Prince Edward Island (-29.0 per thousand), Nova Scotia (-7.3 per thousand) and New Brunswick (-17.9 per thousand).

Figure 2.1 compares the Atlantic ER with the youngest population (Fredericton–Oromocto, N.B.) and the one with the oldest population (Southern, N.S.). The main finding is that even the youngest ER has an aging age structure, as shown by the high proportion of 50- to 69-year-olds in Fredericton–Oromocto ER (N.B.). However, the older age structure of the Southern ER (N.S.) is discernible from the top of the pyramid, which is wider for the Southern ER (N.S.) than for the Fredericton–Oromocto ER (N.B.). In addition, the working-age population is younger in the Fredericton–Oromocto ER (N.B.) than in the Southern ER (N.S.). For example, the Fredericton–Oromocto ER (N.B.) has a larger share of 15- to 39-year-olds, while the Southern ER (N.S.) has more 40- to 64-year-olds. Lastly, the proportion of children aged 0 to 14 years is higher in the Fredericton–Oromocto ER (N.B.) than in the Southern ER (N.S.).

South Coast–Burin Peninsula is the ER where the median age increased the most during the last 10 years in all of Canada

Between July 1, 2006, and July 1, 2016, the increase in median age of each of the 15 ERs was above the national average (+1.7 years), except for the Halifax ER (N.S.). This reflects faster aging of all ERs in the Atlantic provinces compared with the rest of Canada. Nevertheless, on July 1, 2016, the median age in the Halifax ER (N.S.) (39.8 years) remained bellow that of Canada (40.6 years).

Population aging was faster in the ER of South Coast–Burin Peninsula (N.L.) than in any other ER in the Atlantic provinces or Canada. Its median age went from 43.7 years to 51.1 years between 2006 and 2016, an increase of 7.4 years. Three other ERs had a median age of 50 years or older, namely Campbellton–Miramichi (N.B.) (50.8 years), Southern (N.S.) (50.8 years) and Notre Dame–Central Bonavista Bay (N.L.) (50.1 years). The Halifax ER (N.S.) recorded the smallest increase in median age among the Atlantic provinces, up 1.5 years over 10 years.

Regional portrait: Quebec

Laurentides and Montréal posted the strongest population growth in Quebec

Between July 1, 2015, and June 30, 2016, the strongest population growth was recorded in the Laurentides ER (+12.6 per thousand). The Laurentides ER was also the only region in Quebec to post an increase greater than that of Canada as a whole (+12.1 per thousand). It was followed by Montréal (+11.8 per thousand) and Outaouais (+10.1 per thousand). The Montréal ER had 2,014,200 residents on July 1, 2016, or 24.2% of the province’s population.

Population decreases in ERs far from major urban centres

In 2015/2016, the two Quebec ERs with the greatest population decreases were far from major urban centres. Province-wide, the population that decreased the most was that of Côte-Nord. This ER had 92,500 residents on July 1, 2016, down 1,200 people (-13.4 per thousand) compared with the previous year. The Gaspésie–Îles-de-la-Madeleine ER was in second place, with a decrease of 600 persons (-6.0 per thousand). One other region had a significant decrease, namely Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean (-1.7 per thousand).

Drivers of population growth in Quebec vary from one ER to another

For the Montréal ER and the surrounding ERs, all of which posted strong population growth, the main drivers of growth varied. In the ERs of Laval and Montréal, population growth was essentially fed by international migration, while population growth in the Laurentides, Lanaudière and Montérégie ERs was mainly attributable to intraprovincial migration. The population decreases in ERs with negative growth were primarily the result of negative net intraprovincial migration.

The Nord-du-Québec ER stood out sharply from the 16 other Quebec ERs because of its natural increase. With a significantly larger number of births than deaths, it posted the strongest natural increase (+13.0 per thousand) in the province, far ahead of Montréal (+4.4 per thousand). It was also the highest rate among ERs in eastern and central Canada and the fifth highest rate in Canada as a whole. Elsewhere in Québec, the number of births exceeded the number of deaths in most ERs, except Gaspésie–Îles-de-la-Madeleine, Mauricie and Bas-Saint-Laurent, which posted natural increase rates of -4.0 per thousand, -1.5 per thousand and -0.9 per thousand, respectively.

The Montréal ER differed from other ERs in Quebec because of the significance of international migration as the main factor in population growth. With an international migration growth rate of 19.0 per thousand, Montréal had the second highest rate in Canada for an ER, second to that of Winnipeg (Man.), which had a rate of 24.5 per thousand. The net international migration for the Montréal ER was +38,100 in 2015/2016, representing 69.8% of the net migration in the province. In Quebec, the second highest increase from international migration was recorded in the Laval ER (+7.9 per thousand, for net international migration of 3,400).

Net interprovincial migration was negative or nil in every ER in Quebec except the census division (CD) of Nord-du-Québec (+1.4 per thousand). However, the impact of this factor remained generally marginal, with more than half (12 of 17) of Quebec ERs posting low or neutral interprovincial migration rates, and interprovincial migration not being the main factor of growth or decline in the other ERs. In Quebec, the Montréal ER posted the lowest net interprovincial migration (-3.1 per thousand, for a net balance of -6,200 persons).

As for intraprovincial migration, the main migratory trend involves movements from the Montréal region to surrounding regions. The Montréal ER posted a net balance of -17,000 persons, for a rate of -8.5 per thousand, while the Montérégie, Laurentides and Lanaudière ERs posted strong positive net balances (+6,500, +5,900 and +2,700 persons, respectively). The highest rate in Quebec and the second highest in Canada was in Laurentides (+9.9 per thousand). By contrast, the lowest rate in Quebec was that of Côte-Nord (-16.0 per thousand).

Most Quebec ERs among the oldest in Canada . . . with a few exceptions

In Quebec, the age structure of the population of most ERs was older compared with the country as a whole. The Gaspésie–Îles-de-la-Madeleine ER stood out because of its proportion of persons aged 65 years and older (25.1%), which was the highest in Quebec on July 1, 2016, and the highest in Canada, equal to that of the Southern ER (N.S.). The Gaspésie–Îles-de-la-Madeleine ER also had the lowest share of 0- to 14-year-olds (11.9%) in Canada. The Mauricie and Bas-Saint-Laurent ERs were also among the 10 oldest regions in Canada, in terms of both the proportion of persons aged 65 years and older and the proportion of children aged 0 to 14 years.

However, the Nord-du-Québec and Outaouais ERs had indicators showing the relative youthfulness of their populations compared with the national average, with a proportion of persons aged 65 and older that was below the national average and a proportion of persons aged 0 to 14 years that was above. In addition, the proportion of persons aged 0 to 14 years was nearly twice as high in the Nord-du-Québec ER than in Quebec as a whole (26.5% and 15.6%, respectively) and the proportion of persons 65 years and older was half the provincial proportion (7.8% versus 18.1%).

Figure 2.2 draws a parallel between the age pyramids of the two Quebec ERs with the oldest population (Gaspésie–Îles-de-la-Madeleine) and the youngest population (Nord-du-Québec). The wide base of the age pyramid for the Nord-du-Québec ER reflects a young population. The 0-9 age group carries the most weight in this ER, in strong contrast to the situation in Gaspésie–Îles-de-la-Madeleine, where individuals in their fifties and sixties represented the largest proportion of the population. The older age structure of the Gaspésie–Îles-de-la-Madeleine ER is mainly attributable to continued natural decrease and to the especially large migration losses in the 18-24 age group. The Nord-du-Québec ER still has a relatively young age structure because of higher birth and death rates.

Median age in Gaspésie–Îles-de-la-Madeleine is the highest in Canada

Besides having the highest proportion of persons aged 65 years and older and the lowest proportion of persons aged 0 to 14 years, Gaspésie–Îles-de-la-Madeleine is the ER where the population aged most rapidly in Quebec. Between July 1, 2006, and July 1, 2016, the median age of its population went from 45.5 years to 52.0 years, an increase of 6.5 years, compared with an increase of 1.7 years in Canada as a whole. This ER also has the highest median age in Canada.

Montréal, Capitale-Nationale and Laval were the only three ERs in Quebec in 2006-2016 that had smaller increases in median age than that of Canada (+1.9 years). The median age increased in every Quebec ER except the Montréal ER, where it remained stable between 2006 and 2016. A very large amount of international migration involving mostly persons under the age of 35 (79.1% between 2006/2007 and 2015/2016), may be partially the reason.

Regional portrait: Ontario

The most highly populated ERs are also the fastest growing ERs

Among all of Ontario’s ERs, the Toronto ER registered the highest population increase (+18.4 per thousand) for the period from July 1, 2015, to June 30, 2016. The only other ERs above the national average (+12.1 per thousand) were Kitchener–Waterloo–Barrie (+14.4 per thousand) and Ottawa (+13.1 per thousand).

With an increase of 119,300 persons during the last year, the Toronto ER was home to 6,547,200 people on July 1, 2016, accounting for just under half of Ontario’s population (46.8%). It was also the most highly populated ER in Canada. The ERs of Hamilton–Niagara Peninsula, Ottawa and Kitchener–Waterloo–Barrie had populations of 1,473,000 (10.5%), 1,348,800 (9.6%) and 1,333,800 (9.5%), respectively.

The population of the two Northern Ontario ERs decreased over the last year

The biggest population decrease among Ontario ERs was in the Northeast ER, which posted a loss of approximately 1,600 inhabitants (-2.8 per thousand) between July 1, 2015, and June 30, 2016. The Northwest ER also recorded a population decrease, with a population growth rate of -1.6 per thousand (-400 inhabitants).

Compared with the annual growth rates of 2014/2015 and the annualized rates of the 2011-2016 period, the pace of population growth in 2015/2016 quickened slightly in each Ontario ER except Northwest and Northeast, where the decrease remained stable.

Migration was the determining factor in the growth of most Ontario ERs

In Ontario, among the ERs that recorded population growth in 2015/2016, international migration or intraprovincial migration was the main growth driver. The Toronto, Ottawa, London and Windsor–Sarnia ERs owed the largest portion of their population growth to international migration. In the five other ERs in Ontario in which the population increased during the last period, intraprovincial migration exchanges were behind most of the growth. As for the two ERs that posted a decline during the last year, net intraprovincial migration losses were the main reason.

In this province, the Toronto ER recorded the highest natural increase rate, at 5.4 per thousand, representing an increase of 35,300 people (71,800 births and 36,500 deaths). By contrast, the Muskoka–Kawarthas ER recorded the lowest natural increase in Ontario (-3.2 per thousand), representing a net loss of 1,200 people (3,200 births and 4,500 deaths).

The Toronto ER was also notable in terms of international migration. As Toronto’s main growth driver, international migration in this ER (+16.4 per thousand) was the highest of all ERs in Ontario and the sixth highest in Canada. Net international migration was 106,600, accounting for 78.8% of the province’s total. In addition, international migration was a small source of growth in the Northwest ER (0.0 per thousand) and Muskoka–Kawarthas ER (+0.9 per thousand).

Between July 1, 2015, and June 30, 2016, net interprovincial migration was negative or nil in 9 of the 11 Ontario ERs, with Ottawa (+3.4 per thousand) and Kingston–Pembroke (+1.5 per thousand) being the only ERs posting growth. The most significant decreases from this factor occurred in the Muskoka–Kawarthas ER (-1.5 per thousand).

Intraprovincial migration trends in Ontario revolved around Toronto. This ER posted a negative rate of -4.1 per thousand, or a net loss of 26,500 persons, which mainly benefited the surrounding ERs, namely Muskoka–Kawarthas (+10.1 per thousand), Kitchener–Waterloo–Barrie (+7.9 per thousand) and Hamilton–Niagara Peninsula (+5.3 per thousand). As well, the Muskoka–Kawarthas ER posted the highest net intraprovincial migration in Canada.

Younger age structures for the Toronto and Kitchener–Waterloo–Barrie ERs than for Canada

Although the age structure in Ontario on July 1, 2016, was similar to the national average, not all ERs had the same profile. The Toronto and Kitchener–Waterloo–Barrie ERs were the only ones in which the proportion of persons aged 0 to 14 years was higher than for Canada and the proportion of persons aged 65 and older was lower. Moreover, they were two of only three ERs in Ontario with a median age lower than that in Canada (40.6 years), at 38.9 years for Toronto and 40.2 years for Kitchener–Waterloo–Barrie and London.

On July 1, 2016, the Toronto ER had the smallest share of persons aged 65 years and older in Ontario (14.4%), while the Muskoka–Kawarthas ER had the largest share of persons in this age group (24.3%). Muskoka–Kawarthas was also the ER with the smallest proportion of persons aged 0 to 14 years (13.1%) among the Ontario ERs. The largest proportion of children aged 0 to 14 years was found in the Northwest ER (17.0%).

Figure 2.3 compares the ER with the youngest population (Northwest) to the ER with the oldest population (Muskoka–Kawarthas) in Ontario on July 1, 2016. Although the differences between the age pyramids of the two ERs are small, persons aged 65 and older account for a larger proportion of the population in Muskoka–Kawarthas than in Northwest, with the top of the pyramid for Muskoka–Kawarthas being wider, especially from 60 years and over. In addition, the size of the working-age population is proportionally larger in Northwest, as is the size of the youth population, as shown by the narrower base of the pyramid for Muskoka–Kawarthas. In Muskoka-Kawarthas, population aging is fed by natural decrease year after year and by internal migration losses among persons aged 18 to 24 years, combined with migration gains among persons 45 to 64 years.

Population aging faster in Ontario’s ERs than in the rest of the country

Over the last decade (2006/2016), the highest increase in median age occurred in the Muskoka–Kawarthas ER (+5.4 years). While the median age for the population was 44.2 years on July 1, 2006, it rose to 49.6 years on July 1, 2016, the highest in Ontario. The pace of population aging was at least twice as fast as the national average (+1.7 years) in two other Ontario ERs: Windsor–Sarnia (+4.2 years) and Stratford–Bruce Peninsula (+3.7 years).

The Toronto, Ottawa and London ERs had the slowest aging rates in Ontario, their median ages increasing 1.9 years, 1.9 years and 2.1 years, respectively. These increases, although modest at the provincial level, remain slightly higher than the increases observed for Canada as a whole.

Regional portrait: Prairies

Prairie ERs post the strongest population increases in Canada

In the Prairie provinces^Note 2 between July 1, 2015, and June 30, 2016, the strongest population increase in Canada occurred in the Saskatoon–Biggar ER (Sask.) (+26.5 per thousand). The second and third highest population increases in Canada also occurred in the Prairies, namely in the Calgary ER (Alta.) (+23.9 per thousand) and the Edmonton ER (Alta.) (+22.8 per thousand).

The ERs in the Prairies differed greatly from those in the rest of Canada because of the vitality of their population growth. Seven of Canada’s ten fastest-growing ERs in the past year were Prairie ERs. Of these, three were in Manitoba, two were in Saskatchewan and two were in Alberta.

Growth accelerates in most Prairie ERs

The acceleration in growth in the Prairie ERs should be noted since, in 17 of the 22 ERs, growth in 2015/2016 was higher than that in 2014/2015. For example, the growth rate of the Saskatoon–Biggar ER increased from 18.3 per thousand to 26.5 per thousand. Major accelerations in growth also occurred in Winnipeg (Man.), from 14.6 per thousand to 21.7 per thousand, and in Regina–Moose Mountain (Sask.), from 11.9 per thousand to 19.4 per thousand.

Nevertheless, five Prairie ERs posted negative growth, specifically Wood Buffalo–Cold Lake (Alta.) (-13.3 per thousand), Parklands (Man.) (-8.4 per thousand), Yorkton–Melville (Sask.) (-3.5 per thousand), Camrose–Drumheller (Alta.) (-2.7 per thousand) and Banff–Jasper–Rocky Mountain House (Alta.) (-1.2 per thousand). As well, the ERs of Wood Buffalo–Cold Lake (Alta.) and Parklands (Man.) posted the fourth and fifth largest decreases in Canada.

International migration growth accelerates in the Prairies

Growth due to international migration accelerated in every Prairie ER. International migration was the main driver of growth in Prairie ERs with natural increase. Decreases in the other Prairie ERs were mainly due to internal migration.

In 17 of the 22 Prairie ERs, the rate of natural increase was above the national average (+3.4 per thousand). With 2,200 births and 600 deaths, the North ER (Man.) had the highest natural increase (+17.3 per thousand) in the Prairies and the second highest rate in Canada, behind Nunavut (+19.2 per thousand). Natural increase was positive or nil in every Prairie ER. In fact, of the 10 ERs with the highest natural increase, six were Prairie ERs.

Of all the Prairie ERs, international migration had the greatest impact on the growth rate of Winnipeg (Man.) (+24.5 per thousand). This was the highest rate among the 76 ERs in Canada. The Saskatoon–Biggar ER (Sask.) (+18.1 per thousand) had the second highest rate in the Prairies and the third highest rate in Canada. In contrast with the 2014/2015 period, growth due to international migration accelerated in every Prairie ER. The greatest increases in the rate were recorded in Calgary, from 6.5 per thousand to 14.3 per thousand, in Saskatoon–Biggar, from 10.6 per thousand to 18.1 per thousand, in Regina–Moose Mountain, from 10.4 per thousand to 17.2 per thousand, and in Edmonton, from 4.4 per thousand to 11.1 per thousand. As well, the Interlake and Northern ERs (Sask.) had the lowest international migration rate in the Prairies (+1.3 per thousand).

Unlike in 2014/2015 when it was positive in every Alberta ER, interprovincial migration in 2015/2016 was negative or nil in every region except the Edmonton ER. In fact, of the 10 ERs in Canada with the largest interprovincial migration decreases, four were Prairies ERs. The Wood Buffalo ER posted the lowest rate, -6.7 per thousand.

The intraprovincial migration growth rate of the Wood Buffalo–Cold Lake ER (Alta.) was the lowest in Canada (-26.2 per thousand). By contrast, the Southeast ER (Man.) (+9.1 per thousand), Interlake ER (Man.) (+5.1 per thousand) and Saskatoon–Biggar ER (Sask.) (+4.3 per thousand) posted the highest intraprovincial migration rates in the Prairies and were among the 10 highest in Canada.

Young people account for a significant proportion of the population in all Prairie ERs

On July 1, 2016, the Prairie ERs had a relatively younger age structure than the rest of Canada. First, the proportion of young persons aged 0 to 14 years was above the national average in all 22 Prairie ERs. In addition, the proportion of persons aged 65 and older was below the Canadian average in most of the ERs (17 of 22). Finally, only four ERs in this part of Canada had more persons aged 65 and older than persons aged 0 to 14 years (Parklands, Man.; Yorkton–Melville, Sask.; Interlake, Man.; and Swift Current–Moose Jaw, Sask.).

In the Prairies, the Northern ER (Sask.) stood out because of its median age, the youngest in Canada (25.7 years), and its large proportion of 0- to 14-year-olds (30.4%), the highest among all ERs in Canada’s provinces. This ER also had the smallest share of persons aged 65 years and older (6.6%) among the 10 provinces. The smallest proportion of young people aged 0 to 14 years among Prairie ERs was in Winnipeg (Man.), at 16.5%, which was still above the national average (16.1%).

The age structures of the ERs of Wood Buffalo–Cold Lake (Alta.) and Calgary (Alta.) stood out for the relatively smaller proportion of the 65-and-older age group and for the sizable proportion of the working-age population (15 to 64 years). The proportions of the population aged 15 to 64 years in the Wood Buffalo–Cold Lake ER (Alta.) (71.5%) and Calgary ER (Alta.) (71.0%) were the highest in the Prairies (68.3%) and among the highest in Canada (67.4%).

Figure 2.4 compares the Prairie ERs with the youngest population (Northern, Sask.) and the oldest population (Parklands, Man.). The very wide base of the pyramid for the Northern ER shows the large number of young people in its population. Conversely, the pyramid for the Parklands ER shows the predominance of older age groups compared with other age groups, especially those 50 years and older. This ER also stands out for the relatively low proportion of individuals aged 20 to 45 years.

Populations in Prairie ERs are aging at a slower pace than in the rest of Canada

Between July 1, 2006, and July 1, 2016, the increase in the median age of the population was lower in 18 of the 22 Prairie ERs than in Canada as a whole (+1.7 years). Eight Prairie ERs even had a slight decline in median age during this 10-year period, with Southwest (Man.) posting the largest decrease (-2.0 years).

Only four of the 22 ERs had a median age greater than that in Canada on July 1, 2016. The highest median age among these regions was 45.6 years, in Parklands (Man.). By contrast, the Northern (Sask.) and North (Man.) ERs recorded the lowest median ages in Canada’s provinces, specifically 25.7 years and 26.5 years, respectively.

Regional portrait: British Columbia

Strong population growth in southern British Columbia

Of British Columbia’s eight ERs, five recorded a population increase and three recorded a decrease between July 1, 2015, and June 30, 2016. The ERs of Lower Mainland-Southwest (+16.0 per thousand) and Vancouver Island and Coast (+12.9 per thousand) recorded significant population increases, each having growth greater than that of Canada as a whole (+12.1 per thousand).

As well, for the Lower Mainland–Southwest ER (+16.0 per thousand) and the Vancouver Island and Coast ER (+12.9 per thousand), the annual population growth for the 2015/2016 period had accelerated significantly in comparison with the growth rates in the last five-year period, which were 14.4 per thousand and 8.2 per thousand, respectively. In addition, with 2,928,700 inhabitants (61.6% of the province’s population), the Lower Mainland-Southwest ER was the second most populous ER in Canada, behind Toronto.

The three ERs in the province that recorded negative growth in 2015/2016 were North Coast, Cariboo and Nechako. The population decrease in the North Coast ER grew significantly, from -0.8 per thousand in 2014/2015 to -21.2 per thousand in 2015/2016. The growth rate of the Cariboo ER fell from +1.6 per thousand to -7.7 per thousand, and that of Nechako rose from -10.6 per thousand to -1.6 per thousand. As well, in 2015/2016 North Coast posted the largest decrease among Canada’s 76 ERs, while Cariboo recorded the sixth largest decrease.

Different types of migration affect growth in British Columbia

Of the five ERs whose populations increased, the growth of three was boosted mainly by interprovincial migration, namely Thompson–Okanagan, Vancouver Island and Coast, and Kootenay. In the ERs of Lower Mainland–Southwest and Northeast, the main driver of growth was international migration and natural increase, respectively. Intraprovincial migration was the main reason for the population decrease in declining ERs.

The Northeast ER posted the strongest natural increase in the province (+10.2 per thousand). Conversely, natural increase was -1.9 per thousand in the Thompson–Okanagan ER.

Among the ERs in British Columbia, international migration was at its highest in Lower Mainland–Southwest (+8.6 per thousand) with net international migration at 25,100. In all the province’s ERs, the international migration growth rate remained below the national average (+8.7 per thousand). The international migration growth rates of the other ERs in the province were low or nil, except for the Northeast ER (+4.0 per thousand).

Between July 1, 2015, and June 30, 2016, net interprovincial migration was positive in six of the eight ERs in British Columbia. The highest interprovincial migration growth rates were in the Thompson–Okanagan ER (+10.3 per thousand) and the Vancouver Island and Coast ER (+9.1 per thousand). These two ERs and those of Kootenay, Lower Mainland–Southwest, North Coast and Cariboo were among the 10 ERs with the strongest growth from interprovincial migration in Canada.

Net intraprovincial migration was negative or nil in six of the eight ERs. The most significant losses were in ERs in the northern part of the province, namely Nechako (-14.7 per thousand), North Coast (-7.8 per thousand) and Northeast (-6.9 per thousand). The Nechako and North Coast CDs were among the 10 ERs with the largest decrease from intraprovincial migration in Canada. The ERs that benefited from internal migration in British Columbia were Thompson-Okanagan (+4.2 per thousand) and Vancouver Island and Coast (+3.2 per thousand).

ERs in northern B.C. are younger than ERs in southern B.C.

The ERs in the northern part of the province stood out sharply from those in the southern part with respect to the population’s age structure. On July 1, 2016, the three northernmost ERs in British Columbia (North Coast, Nechako and Northeast) were the only ones in the province where the proportion of persons aged 0 to 14 years was above the Canadian average and the proportion of persons aged 65 years and older was below the Canadian average. The ERs in southern British Columbia were generally older, with more people aged 65 and older than people aged 0 to 14 years.

The Vancouver Island and Coast ER and Thompson–Okanagan ER had the largest proportions of persons 65 years and older in the province (23.1% and 22.9%, respectively). By contrast, this age group accounted for only 9.9% of the population of the Northeast ER, which stood out also because it had a large proportion of children aged 0 to 14 years (20.8%). In British Columbia, the lowest proportion of young people aged 0 to 14 years was in Vancouver Island and Coast (13.1%).

Figure 2.5 compares the age pyramids of the British Columbia ERs with the oldest population (Vancouver Island and Coast) and the youngest population (Northeast). In Northeast, the age group representing the largest proportion of the population was 20 to 29 years, compared with 55 to 64 years for Vancouver Island and Coast. Accordingly, the top of the age pyramid for Vancouver Island and Coast is wider than that of Northeast, while the base of the pyramid for Northeast is wider, indicating greater aging in Vancouver Island and Coast. The main reason for this is the natural decrease that prevails in Vancouver Island and Coast and the high birth rate in Northeast.

Most British Columbia’s ERs aging faster than in all of Canada

Between July 1, 2006, and July 1, 2016, the median increased 1.0 year in the Northeast ER, the smallest increase in British Columbia. In every other British Columbia ER, the increase in the population’s median age was greater than that of Canada as a whole (+1.7 years), except for Lower Mainland–Southwest, where the increase was equal to that of Canada. Population aging was the fastest in the Nechako ER, with a median age increase of +3.8 years.

Regional portrait: Territories

Strong population growth in Nunavut’s three CDs

In Canada’s three territories, the highest population growth in 2015/2016 was in Region 6 (Yellowknife, N.W.T.) and in the three CDs of Nunavut. Region 6 (N.W.T.) recorded the strongest population growth (+24.2 per thousand) of the 10 CDs in Canada’s territories. It was followed by the CDs of Baffin (Nvt.), Kitikmeot (Nvt.) and Keewatin (Nvt.), with annual population increases of 17.5 per thousand, 14.7 per thousand and 10.4 per thousand, respectively.

Three CDs in the Northwest Territories recorded population decreases

In the territories, three out of 10 CDs recorded significant population decreases. All three were in the Northwest Territories. Region 5 (Hay River, N.W.T.), with a population growth rate of -22.7 per thousand, had the largest population decline. Region 4 (Fort Simpson, N.W.T.) and Region 1 (Inuvik, N.W.T.) were the two other territorial CDs that posted a population decrease, with growth rates of -22.1 per thousand and -14.1 per thousand, respectively.

Many more births than deaths is the main reason for population growth in CDs in the territories

Natural increase was the main driver of growth in each CD of Canada’s territories, except the Yukon CD, between July 1, 2015, and June 30, 2016. The main driver of growth in the Yukon CD was international migration. Population decreases in CDs in the territories during this period were mainly attributable to negative net interprovincial migration (Region 1 and Region 5) or to negative net intraprovincial migration (Region 4).

The number of births largely exceeded the number of deaths in each CD in Nunavut, the Northwest Territories and Yukon. In fact, the natural increase of all the CDs in the territories was above the national average (+3.4 per thousand). The Keewatin CD (Nvt.) recorded the highest natural increase (+23.6 per thousand) of all the CDs in Canada. The lowest natural increase in the territories was in Region 4 (N.W.T.) (+4.0 per thousand), but it was still higher than that of Canada as a whole.

The Yukon ER was the only CD in which population growth was mainly the result of international migration. At 9.4 per thousand, its international migration growth rate was above the national average (+8.7 per thousand). Otherwise, growth from international migration was nil or negative in 7 of the 10 CDs.

Interprovincial migration varied greatly among the CDs in the territories. Three CDs recorded gains in their population exchanges with other provinces and territories. Region 3 (Behchokò, N.W.T.) was the CD with the greatest net interprovincial migration (+4.5 per thousand), in all the territories. Region 2 (Norman Wells, N.W.T.) and Kitikmeot (Nvt.) recorded a rate of 3.3 per thousand and 2.8 per thousand, respectively. Conversely, all the other CDs in the territories posted negative interprovincial migration. The greatest decrease from interprovincial migration was in Region 5 (N.W.T.), with a rate of -24.9 per thousand.

A much younger age structure in CDs in the territories than in the rest of Canada

On July 1, 2016, the share of persons aged 65 years and older did not surpass 10% in seven of the 10 CDs in the territories and always remained below the national average of 16.5%. Moreover, the number of children aged 0 to 14 years was twice that of persons aged 65 years and older in all the CDs in the territories, except for Yukon, Region 4 (N.W.T.) and Region 5 (N.W.T.), which nevertheless had more young people than seniors.

One third of the population of the Keewatin CD (Nvt.) was aged 0 to 14 years on July 1, 2016, the largest proportion (33.3%) of all CDs in Canada. This CD also had the lowest proportion of persons aged 65 years and older (3.6%) in Canada. In other words, the Keewatin CD (Nvt.) had 10 times more young people aged 0 to 14 years than persons aged 65 years and older. Young people aged 0 to 14 represented more than 30% of the population of another CD, Kitikmeot (Nvt.), with a proportion of 30.8%.

Figure 2.6 compares the CDs with the youngest population (Keewatin, Nvt.) and the oldest population (Yukon) in the territories. The proportion of children in Keewatin (Nvt.) is considerably larger than in Yukon, as demonstrated by the thickness of the base of the population pyramid of Keewatin. This is primarily due to higher levels of fertility and mortality in that CD, with a natural increase rate of 23.6 per thousand in Keewatin (Nvt.) compared with 5.5 per thousand in Yukon. As well, in Yukon, the top of the pyramid, which is larger than that of Keewatin, indicates an older age structure.

The population is aging faster in most CDs in the territories than in Canada

Although the median age of the population in each CD in the territories is lower than the national average (40.6 years), the pace of population aging between 2006 and 2016 was generally faster than in Canada as a whole (+1.7 years), except for Region 3 (N.W.T.), where the median age went from 31.8 years to 27.1 years (-4.6 years) and the Yukon CD, where the median age increased 1.6 years.

As well, the three CDs in the territories in which the population was aging the fastest were in the Northwest Territories. The greatest increase in median age between July 1, 2006, and July 1, 2016, occurred in the CD of Region 4 (N.W.T.), from 31.9 years to 36.3 years (+4.3 years).

Summary table

Notes

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