Annual Demographic Estimates: Subprovincial Areas, July 1, 2016
Section 3 : Census divisionsAnnual Demographic Estimates: Subprovincial Areas, July 1, 2016
Section 3 : Census divisions

Census divisions (CDs) with the highest growth rates in the past year

Between July 1, 2015 and June 30, 2016 (2015/2016), the population increased in 158 of Canada’s 293 CDs (53.6%), decreased in 107 CDs and remained relatively stable in the others. CDs whose population increases generally have larger populations than the CDs whose population decreased or remained stable, their average populations in 2016 being 200,400 and 32,800, respectively. Ontario was the region with the largest proportion of growing CDs (71.4%), followed by the territories (60.0%) and Quebec (59.2%).

For a third consecutive annual period, the Mirabel CD (Que.) was in the top spot in Canada in terms of growth, with a rate of 31.1 per thousand. Its population rose from 49,800 to 51,400 in 2015/2016. Its intraprovincial migration rate of 21.3 per thousand—second highest of all the CDs in Canada—is the reason behind the strong growth in Mirabel. Quebec also had the CD with the seventh strongest growth rate, La Jacques-Cartier, at 26.2 per thousand. These CDs are located on the outskirts of Quebec’s two most populous CDs, Montréal and Québec respectively.

Population growth evolved differently among the CDs in the Prairie provinces. Since 2013/2014, the number of CDs in Alberta posting one of the 10 highest population growth rates has decreased, from four in 2013/2014 to two in 2014/2015, and then one in 2015/2016. As well, eight Alberta CDs recorded population decreases in 2015/2016, compared with only one CD in 2012/2013. Moreover, among the CDs that posted nil or positive growth rates in 2015/2016, most saw their rate drop from the previous annual period. Division No. 6 (Calgary) was one of only three Alberta CDs that recorded stronger population growth in 2015/2016 than in 2014/2015, and it was also the CD with the ninth highest population growth rate in Canada (+23.9 per thousand).

In contrast, CDs in Manitoba and Saskatchewan had increased population growth compared with 2014/2015. For example, the growth rate of Division No. 11 (Saskatoon, Sask.) was 29.6 per thousand in 2015/2016, compared with 21.0 per thousand in 2014/2015. Similarly, Division No. 2 (Hanover, Man.) posted a growth rate of 28.2 per thousand in 2015/2016 versus 25.5 per thousand in 2014/2015, and Division No. 10 (Macdonald, Man.) had a rate of 26.5 per thousand in 2015/2016, up from the previous year (+24.1 per thousand).

Two Ontario CDs located on the outskirts of the Toronto CD were among the 10 CDs with the strongest growth. The Dufferin CD (+27.6 per thousand) ranked fourth, while the Peel CD (+23.0 per thousand) ranked tenth. One CD in the Atlantic provinces ranked fifth among the CDs with the strongest total growth in Canada: Queens (P.E.I.), with a rate of 26.7 per thousand. Lastly, the Northwest Territories also had one CD, Region 6 (Yellowknife), which ranked seventh (+24.2 per thousand) among Canada’s CDs.

Census divisions with the highest rates of decline in the past year

In 2015/2016, the Atlantic provinces had the largest proportion of CDs that recorded population decreases (66.0%). Still, that proportion was down from 2014/2015 (80.9%). British Columbia also had a notable proportion (37.9%) of CDs with population declines. These regions had the most CDs among the 10 CDs with the strongest total population decline in Canada. The Atlantic had three CDs in this ranking in 2015/2016, as did British Columbia. In particular, Kitimat–Stikine (B.C.), with a rate of -24.7 per thousand, or a net loss of 900 persons, ranked first in Canada in terms of decline. It was followed by the Guysborough CD (N.S.), with a rate of -24.4 per thousand, or a net loss of 200 persons. Guysborough was also the CD with the lowest natural increase in Canada (-12.2 per thousand).

In 2015/2016, three British Columbia CDs were among the 10 CDs with the strongest population decline in Canada. The population decreases in the Kitimat–Stikine CD and the Mount Waddington CD were mainly the result of significant intraprovincial migration losses (-8.5 per thousand and -20.3 per thousand, respectively). The Stikine population decrease was also mainly the result of this factor (-29.2 per thousand), in addition to losses in interprovincial and international exchanges. However, it should be noted that its modest size makes it more sensitive to population changes.

For the first time since 2011/2012, an Alberta CD has recorded one of the ten strongest declines in Canada, namely Division No. 16 (Wood Buffalo, Alta.), with a population growth rate of -23.5 per thousand. This is the second consecutive year of decline, in stark contrast with the situation from 2005/2006 to 2013/2014, when this CD consistently ranked in the top 10 for population growth in Canada.

Three Atlantic CDs, namely Guysborough (N.S.) (-24.4 per thousand), Division No. 3 (Channel–Port aux Basques, N.L.) (-16.8 per thousand) and Queens (N.B.) (-16.3 per thousand) were also in this ranking. However, since 2012/2013, regions in the Atlantic provinces are becoming less and less prevalent on the list of the ten largest decreases. The Atlantic provinces had ten regions in 2012/2013, five in 2013/2014, and only three in the last two periods.

Two territorial CDs and one Quebec CD round out the ranking, namely Region 4 (Fort Simpson, N.W.T.), Region 5 (Hay River, N.W.T.) and the Manicouagan CD (Que.). The decline in the two territorial CDs has become more pronounced since the last period, going from -19.3 to -22.1 per thousand for Region 4 (N.W.T.) and from -15.9 to -22.7 per thousand for Region 5 (N.W.T.). Most of the decline in both CDs was the result of internal migration losses. The decline in the Manicouagan CD (Que.) has also become more pronounced, going from -13.0 to -16.8 per thousand.

Lastly, a comparison of the age pyramids of two CDs whose growth goes in opposite directions (Mirabel and Kitimat–Stikine) shows strong contrasts in terms of age structure. Mirabel, whose growth is very strong, presents a large number of persons aged 0 to 10 years and 25 to 50 years, as indicated by wider sections at the bottom and centre of the pyramid. This composition suggests the presence of many young families. Conversely, the pyramid for Kitimat–Stikine is narrower where young children (0 to 9 years) and young adults (25 to 44 years) would be, while most of its population is in the age groups from 45 to 64 years, as shown by the wide upper part of the pyramid.

The youngest census divisions

On July 1, 2016, 85 of 293 CDs (29.0%) had a median age below that of Canada (40.6 years). In 77 of the 85 CDs (90.6%), the proportion of the population aged 0 to 14 years was greater than the proportion of persons aged de 65 years and older. All of the 10 youngest CDs were in northern Canada, whether in the three territories or in the northernmost areas of the provinces. Specifically, three of the CDs were in Manitoba, one in Saskatchewan, one in Alberta, three in Nunavut, one in the Northwest Territories and one in Quebec. The only CD that was not in western or northern Canada was the Nord-du-Québec CD (Que.).

Each of the 10 youngest CDs in Canada on July 1, 2016, was also on the list in the previous year. For example, the Keewatin CD (Nvt.) remained the youngest, with a median age of 24.2 years and a proportion of 0- to 14-year-olds of 33.3%. It was followed by Division No. 22 (Thompson), Division No. 23 (Pukatawagan 198) and Division No. 19 (Peguis 1B), all three in Manitoba, with median ages of 24.8, 24.5 and 25.1 years, respectively.

The oldest census divisions

On July 1, 2016, 208 of 293 CDs (71.0%) posted a median age older or equal to that of Canada (40.6 years). In 189 of the 208 CDs (90.9%), the proportion of the population aged 65 years and older was higher than the proportion of children aged 0 to 14 years. British Columbia, Ontario, Quebec and Nova Scotia each had two CDs among the oldest in Canada. The two remaining CDs were in New Brunswick and Manitoba.

As with the youngest CDs, all the oldest CDs in Canada on July 1, 2016, were also on the list in the previous year, except for Richmond (N.S.). The median age was highest in the Guysborough CD (N.S.), at 56.3 years, making it the oldest CD in Canada. In second place was the Haliburton CD (Ont.), with a median age of 56.2 years. These two CDs also had the highest proportions of persons aged 65 years and older.

It should be noted that the number of CDs in which the median age was at least 50 years has increased since July 1, 2015, from 59 to 66. Nearly half (31) of all these CDs are in Quebec, and close to one third (20) are in the Atlantic provinces.

Population aging can also be reflected by the distribution of the population by age. On July 1, 2016, the proportion of persons aged 65 years and older was higher than the proportion of persons aged 0 to 14 years in 197 of the 293 CDs (67.2%). Most of these CDs were in the provinces of central and eastern Canada.

As in previous years, Atlantic Canada continued to have the highest proportion of CDs in which persons aged 65 years outnumbered persons aged 0 to 14 years (44 of 47, or 93.6%). The senior population exceeded the youth population in 80 of the 98 CDs (81.6%) in Quebec and in 38 of the 49 CDs in Ontario (77.6%). Conversely, in the Prairie provinces, the senior population exceeded the youth population in only one quarter of the CDs (16 of 60, or 26.7%). In this regard, Alberta stood out clearly from the rest of Canada, with its population aged 0 to 14 years exceeding the 65-and-older population in all 19 of its CDs. The trend in the territories was similar to that of Alberta. Every CD in the three territories had a higher proportion of young people aged 0 to 14 years than persons aged 65 years and older (10 of 10). Finally, the proportion of persons aged 65 years and older was higher than the proportion of children aged 0 to 14 years in 66% of the CDs (19 of 29) in British Columbia.

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