Leading indicators
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The composite leading index rose 0.8% in February, double its gain in each of the previous three months and its largest advance since May 2010. The increase was broadly-based, with 9 of the 10 components posting gains in February compared with 5 rising the month before. A turnaround in manufacturing contributed to the overall increase in the index.
In manufacturing, new orders for durable goods rebounded 1.0%, after three straight declines. Some of this upturn reflects the marked improvement in exports in December. The ratio of shipments to inventories posted its first gain in five months. Manufacturers appeared optimistic that the improvement in demand was sustainable, as they extended the length of the workweek and substantially boosted employment levels over the last three months.
The stock market continued to lead all components with a 2.7% increase in February. The housing index was close behind with a 1.8% advance, mostly due to higher existing home sales. The improvement in housing was reflected in furniture and appliance sales, up 0.9% for their first gain in eight months. Spending on other durable goods rose 0.6%.
Available on CANSIM: table 377-0003.
Definitions, data sources and methods: survey number 1601.
This release will be reprinted in the April 2011 issue of Canadian Economic Observer, Vol. 24, no. 4 (11-010-X, free). For more information on the economy, consult the Canadian Economic Observer.
For more information, or to enquire about the concepts, methods or data quality of this release, contact Philip Cross (613-951-9162; ceo@statcan.gc.ca), Current Economic Analysis Group.
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