Sample survey theory and methods: Past, present, and future directions
Section 1. Introduction

This paper was prepared at the invitation of Dr. Danny Pfeffermann, 2015 President of the International Association of Survey Statisticians, who provided the ambitious title. The paper was presented at the meetings of the International Statistical Institute in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil in 2015.

The title defines an area too large for us to address in a single paper. Furthermore, there are a number of review papers that address the topics of the title, including Kish (1995), Bellhouse (2000), Rao (2005), Bethlehem (2009), Brick (2011), Groves (2011), and Brewer (2013). Our discussion draws on those papers, but we do not attempt completeness. We provide a brief appraisal of the three topics and project a number of current situations into the future. Our aim is to stimulate further discussion, especially on the future directions. Beyond the discussion of controversies related to purposive sampling, we will concentrate on probability-based sampling. Because survey sampling is an applied field, some of the problems encountered and methods employed in practice will be addressed. Our discussion is most relevant for large general purpose samples, the surveys where we have the most experience. Likewise, our knowledge of applications is concentrated in Canada and the United States.

The paper is organized as follow. Section 2 presents the early landmark contributions from 1920-1960. Inferential issues are covered in Section 3. The paper concludes with a discussion on the future in Section 4.


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