Survey Methodology
Bayesian inference for multinomial data from small areas incorporating uncertainty about order restriction

by Xinyu Chen and Balgobin NandramNote 1

  • Release date: June 21, 2022
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Abstract

When the sample size of an area is small, borrowing information from neighbors is a small area estimation technique to provide more reliable estimates. One of the famous models in small area estimation is a multinomial-Dirichlet hierarchical model for multinomial counts. Due to natural characteristics of the data, making unimodal order restriction assumption to parameter spaces is relevant. In our application, body mass index is more likely at an overweight level, which means the unimodal order restriction may be reasonable. The same unimodal order restriction for all areas may be too strong to be true for some cases. To increase flexibility, we add uncertainty to the unimodal order restriction. Each area will have similar unimodal patterns, but not the same. Since the order restriction with uncertainty increases the inference difficulty, we make comparison with the posterior summaries and approximated log-pseudo marginal likelihood.

Key Words: Bayesian computation; Contingency tables; Log-pseudo marginal likelihood; Monte Carlo method; Small areas; Unimodal order restrictions.

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How to cite

Chen, X., and Nandram, B. (2022). Bayesian inference for multinomial data from small areas incorporating uncertainty about order restriction. Survey Methodology, Statistics Canada, Catalogue No. 12-001-X, Vol. 48, No. 1. Paper available at http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/12-001-x/2022001/article/00004-eng.htm.

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ISSN : 1492-0921

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Survey Methodology publishes articles dealing with various aspects of statistical development relevant to a statistical agency, such as design issues in the context of practical constraints, use of different data sources and collection techniques, total survey error, survey evaluation, research in survey methodology, time series analysis, seasonal adjustment, demographic studies, data integration, estimation and data analysis methods, and general survey systems development. The emphasis is placed on the development and evaluation of specific methodologies as applied to data collection or the data themselves. All papers will be refereed. However, the authors retain full responsibility for the contents of their papers and opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the Editorial Board or of Statistics Canada.

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Published by authority of the Minister responsible for Statistics Canada.

© His Majesty the King in Right of Canada as represented by the Minister of Industry, 2022

Use of this publication is governed by the Statistics Canada Open Licence Agreement.

Catalogue No. 12-001-X

Frequency: Semi-annual

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Table of contents

Abstract - Article main page
Section 1. Introduction
Section 2. Hierarchical multinomial Dirichlet
Section 3. Hierarchical multinomial Dirichlet model incorporated uncertainty about order restrictions
Section 4. Application to body mass index data
Section 5. Simulated BMI
Section 6. Concluding remarks
Appendix
References

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