1. Introduction

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In 2005, Statistics Canada released a study on the 1992 cohort of registered apprentices. ¹ The study looked closely at the completion and discontinuation trends in apprenticeship programs for the 1992 cohort over an 11-year period from 1992 to 2002 using longitudinal data created from the Registered Apprenticeship Information System (RAIS). Three jurisdictions were included in the study: New Brunswick, Ontario and Alberta. The main result was that: " half of the apprentices completed the trade they had started, almost half dropped out and depending on the jurisdiction, 5% to 12% were still continuing after 11 years" (Prasil, page 6). This new study examines the same issue for the cohort of registered apprentices that started the following year, in 1993, and compares the results with those for the 1992 cohort.

The purpose of this study is to provide measures of completion of apprenticeship programs and information on the learning paths of the apprentices over time. The need for accurate indicators of the success of apprenticeship programs is important in order to ensure that apprenticeship programs continue to meet the demand for skilled workers in Canada. The cohort approach, based on individual-level data, provides more accurate information than that based on aggregate data. The cohort approach has the advantage that it can also provide information on the learning paths of apprentices as it follows the same group of apprentices over several years.

For this project, a new longitudinal file was created from the Registered Apprenticeship Information System (RAIS) for apprentices who started a new trade in 1993. The data were linked from 1993 to 2003 for jurisdictions that reported individual data to the Registered Apprenticeship Information System (RAIS) for the whole period. This excluded Newfoundland, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, Manitoba and Saskatchewan, which all reported aggregate data for some of those years. This study also excludes British Columbia because the identifier structure of their data changed between 1993 and 1994; the Territories, because the numbers of apprentices were too low; and Quebec, because of the need for data reconciliation. Therefore, as in the 1992 cohort study, this study includes New Brunswick, Ontario and Alberta.

An overview of the apprenticeship training programs is presented in Chapter 2. Chapter 3 discusses data preparation and limitations. Chapter 4 compares the 1993 and the 1992 cohorts at the provincial level. Detailed tables that replicate, for the most part, the tables shown in the 1992 cohort study are shown in the appendix; summary tables and charts are presented in the text. Conclusions are presented in Chapter 5.