5. Conclusion

View the most recent version.

This study has provided information on the learning paths of the 1993 cohort of apprentices in New Brunswick, Ontario, Alberta over an 11-year period, comparing the findings with those for the 1992 cohort of apprentices. Overall, the results for the two cohorts are similar in all three provinces. Some differences between the two cohorts were noted for New Brunswick when completion rates were examined by trade group.

The main result was that about half of the apprentices completed a program in New Brunswick and Ontario and close to 60% in Alberta. The rate of completion within a jurisdiction varied by major group of trades and, more significantly, by single trade (for example, in Ontario, rates by trade varied from 19% to 71%). Systematically, in each jurisdiction, the building construction trade group showed completion rates significantly below average, while the industrial and mechanical trade group showed rates significantly above average. The median duration for completing an apprenticeship trade program was 4 to 5 years. For most trades, a majority of completers took a time equal or less than the nominal duration plus one year to complete. However, in some trade groups, a good 40% took more than that duration. When compared to the nominal duration without the addition of one year, the median duration for completers was most often one or two years above. Therefore, the nominal duration usually understates the actual time that the majority of apprentices will take to complete an apprenticeship program.

In Ontario and Alberta, an inverse relationship was found between the age of the apprentice at the start of the program and the likelihood of completion — older apprentices completed in lower proportions than their younger counterparts. This inverse relationship between age at first registration and the likelihood of completion was not found in the case of New Brunswick. However, in all three provinces, more of the apprentices who started at an older age and who completed a program did so within the expected duration.

Among discontinuers, the probability of returning to a program (in the same trade or in a different one) and completing it was low; however, the likelihood of this happening was slightly higher in Alberta. The majority of those who once discontinued an apprenticeship program never returned, at least in the same province up to 2003. Some of those discontinuers may have continued their program in another province, but such inter-provincial moves were not captured in the data. In all three jurisdictions, the same trade groups showed below- or above-average rates of return. Finally, the proportion of the 1993 cohort of apprentices still registered in 2003 varied significantly by jurisdiction, between 4% and 6% for New Brunswick and Alberta and 12% for Ontario.

Economic conditions in Canada began to improve in the latter half of the 1990s. Future research based on more recent cohorts of Canadian apprentices could shed light on the relationship between economic conditions and trends in apprenticeship registrations, completions and discontinuations by trade group and province.