Analysis

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National

According to preliminary estimates, Canada’s population was estimated at 35,702,700 on January 1, 2015, up 26,900 from October 1, 2014. The population growth rate ¹  in Canada for the fourth quarter of 2014 was 0.1% while the growth rate over 2014 stood at 1.0%. The increase for the fourth quarter of 2014 is similar to what was observed for the same period in 2013.

Population growth was above the national average (+0.1%) for the fourth quarter of 2014 in three provinces: Alberta (+0.3%), Manitoba (+0.3%) and Saskatchewan (+0.2%). In terms of yearly population growth, Alberta (+2.4%) continued to lead all provinces and territories in 2014, followed by Nunavut (+2.1%) and Saskatchewan (+1.5%).

At the national level, population growth is the result of two factors: natural increase ²  and net international migration ³  while provincial and territorial population estimates also take into account interprovincial movements of Canadians. In this quarter, natural increase was estimated at 27,300 and resulted from the difference between 94,900 births and 67,600 deaths according to preliminary estimates. Since 1971, ⁴  natural increase in Canada has been positive in every quarter, meaning that more births than deaths have been recorded. This situation could reverse in a few years as a result of population ageing, leading to an increasing number of deaths and under the assumption that fertility remains at a fairly low level. ⁵ 

Net international migration in the last quarter of 2014 was slightly negative (-400) and it was 11% lower in 2014 (+241,100) than in 2013 (+269,800). For the last three months of 2014, Canada welcomed 52,200 immigrants while the number of non-permanent residents (NPRs) decreased by 39,900. The number of non-permanent residents is usually decreasing during this period of the year. For the same quarter in 2013, the immigration level was at 59,800 while the variation of NPR was -30,800. On the other hand, the number of people that left the country to live abroad, which is referred as net emigration, ⁶  reached 12,700 in the last quarter of 2014.

In 2014, the population of Canada increased by 367,400 people, an annual growth rate of 1.0% and a similar growth rate to what was recorded in 2013 (+1.1%). Population growth continued to vary from one region to another in 2014 and were stronger in Alberta (+2.4%), Nunavut (+2.1%) and Saskatchewan (+1.5%). On the other hand, population decreases were recorded in Northwest Territories (-0.8%), Newfoundland and Labrador (-0.4%) and New Brunswick (-0.1%).

Gains were made in interprovincial migration for only two provinces and one territory in 2014: Alberta (+0.8%), British Columbia (+0.2%) and Nunavut (+0.1%). On the contrary, the highest net losses in interprovincial migration were observed in the Northwest Territories (-2.0%), Prince Edward Island (-0.6%), Newfoundland and Labrador (-0.5%) and Manitoba (-0.5%). Rates of net international migration were also above the national average (+0.7%) in the Prairies. Manitoba recorded the highest rate (+1.3%) in the country, followed by Prince Edward Island (+1.2%), Saskatchewan (+1.0%) and Alberta (+0.8%). Among the provinces, rates of natural increase were above the national average in the Prairie provinces and well below it in the Atlantic provinces. Natural increase was again a major source of population change in Nunavut (+2.0%) and the Northwest Territories (+1.1%) with rates well above the national average of 0.4%.

Provinces and territories

Atlantic provinces

On January 1, 2015, population was estimated at 526,300 in Newfoundland and Labrador, 146,500 in Prince Edward Island, 943,600 in Nova Scotia and 754,300 in New Brunswick. In the fourth quarter of 2014, population decline ⁷  was observed in Newfoundland and Labrador (-0.1%) and New Brunswick (-0.1%). Preliminary estimates show that all Atlantic provinces recorded losses in interprovincial migration during the last quarter of 2014.

Central Canada

The population of Quebec showed little variation in the fourth quarter of 2014 (+3,600), the smallest fourth-quarter growth since 1997. On January 1, 2015, Quebec’s population was estimated at 8,239,900. Natural increase (+4,700) was mainly responsible for the province’s population growth. During the last quarter of 2014, Quebec recorded low level of net international migration (+600). It was the second lowest level ever recorded in a fourth quarter with the lowest level reached in 1990 (-1,800). During the last quarter of 2014, Quebec welcomed 8,000 immigrants, 2,500 less than the same quarter in 2013. Also, it recorded fewer losses in non-permanent residents (-5,900) compared to the same quarter in 2013 (-7,300).

Ontario’s population remained fairly stable during the fourth quarter of 2014 (+3,400) to reach 13,733,500 on January 1, 2015. The provincial growth was mainly due to natural increase (+10,600). During the last quarter of 2014, Ontario’s net international migration losses (-4,800) were the largest for a fourth quarter since 1971. Ontario welcomed 19,300 immigrants in the last quarter of 2014 which was a low fourth-quarter level not seen since 1986. In addition, net change in non-permanent residents in the fourth quarter of 2014 was at -18,800, compared to -16,600 for the same quarter in 2013. Still for the 2014 fourth quarter, Ontario also recorded net outflows of interprovincial migration of -2,400 people, which was more than six times higher than the level recorded in the same quarter in 2013 (-400). As in the last quarter of 2013, the majority of the net outflow was to Alberta (-2,800).

Western Canada

Manitoba’s population increased by 3,500 (+0.3%), in the last quarter of 2014, to reach 1,289,800 on January 1, 2015. This growth mainly stemmed from net international migration (+3,200) which was the second highest level in a fourth quarter since 1971 recorded for Manitoba, after 2011 (+3,700). In the last quarter of 2014, Manitoba received 3,500 immigrants, a continuation of the level of immigration recorded in the same quarter of the previous year.

With an increase of 2,700 people (+0.2%) in the fourth quarter of 2014, Saskatchewan’s population was estimated at 1,132,600 on January 1, 2015. The growth was due primarily to net gains in international migration (+1,400) and natural increase (+1,200). In the last quarter of 2014, Saskatchewan welcomed 2,600 immigrants, a second highest fourth-quarter level ever recorded, only 500 people less than the level recorded in 2013. On the contrary, the province’s net change in non-permanent residents (-1,100) fell to its lowest level recorded in any quarter since 1971.

As of January 1, 2015, the population of Alberta was estimated at 4,160,000, an increase of 14,100 (+0.3%) from October 1, 2014. Since the first quarter of 2011, Alberta has continuously led all provinces in terms of population growth rates. Alberta’s population growth was driven by all three factors of population change, with natural increase (+7,500) leading, followed by net interprovincial migration (+4,200) and net international migration (+2,400). Between October 1 and December 31, 2014, close to 9,200 immigrants settled in the province, the highest level for a fourth quarter since 1971. Conversely, Alberta posted its second lowest level in the net number of non-permanent residents (-5,500) in a fourth quarter, with the lowest in 2010 (-6,600). Over the last three months of 2014, Alberta also recorded net inflows of interprovincial migration that was about 1,500 less people recorded in the same quarter in 2013, from 5,700 to 4,200. Most of the province’s net inflow in interprovincial migration came from Ontario (+2,800) and Quebec (+600).

The population of British Columbia remained relatively stable during the fourth quarter of 2014 (+1,300). It was estimated at 4,659,300 on January 1, 2015. Net interprovincial migration (+2,600) and natural increase (+1,900) were the two factors behind the province’s population growth. After two consecutive fourth-quarter net losses in interprovincial migration, British Columbia recorded a gain in the last quarter of 2014, with most of the province’s net inflow in interprovincial migration coming from Ontario (+700), Manitoba (+600) and Alberta (+500). In the fourth quarter of 2014, British Columbia posted a net international migration of -3,100, the lowest level for a fourth quarter since 1971. From October 1 to December 31, 2014, British Columbia welcomed 7,700 immigrants, 1,300 people less than the same quarter in 2013.

The territories

In the North, Yukon and Northwest Territories posted population decline in the fourth quarter of 2014. Population in Yukon declined by 0.5% and was estimated at 36,600 as of January 1, 2015. The population of the Northwest Territories was estimated at 43,600 on January 1, 2015, declining by 0.5%. Nunavut’s population remained relatively unchanged in the fourth quarter of 2014. Preliminary estimates show that Nunavut’s population was 36,700 on January 1, 2015.