The emergence of COVID-19 variants of concern and community response to shifting public health measures continue to influence the course of the COVID-19 pandemic in Canada and worldwide.
To understand the direct and indirect consequences of the pandemic, it is important to measure excess mortality, which occurs when there are more deaths than expected in a given period. It should be noted that, even without a pandemic, there is always some year-to-year variation in the number of people who die in a given week. This means that the number of expected deaths should fall within a certain range of values. There is evidence of excess mortality when weekly deaths are consistently higher than the expected number, but especially when they exceed the range of what is expected over several consecutive weeks.
Provisional data show an estimated 43,687 excess deaths in Canada from the end of March 2020 to the middle of May 2022, 7.0% more deaths than expected if there was no COVID-19 pandemic. During the same period, at least 37,560 deaths were directly attributed to COVID-19. Since the start of the pandemic, there have been several periods of significant excess mortality observed, including periods coinciding with increased reported COVID-19 cases.
There were more than 7,000 excess deaths from the beginning of January to the middle of February 2022 across Canada
Nationally, significant excess mortality was observed from the beginning of January to the middle of February 2022, with 7,257 excess deaths or 16.8% more deaths than expected. Newfoundland and Labrador, Quebec, Ontario, Saskatchewan, Alberta, and British Columbia all experienced a period of significant excess mortality during these same seven weeks.
This period of excess mortality occurred at a time of heightened COVID-19 activity owing to the spread of the Omicron variant. Over this same period, 4,900 deaths were directly attributed to COVID-19, according to the provisional data, and Quebec, Ontario and British Columbia all saw a high number of COVID-19 deaths compared with the fall of 2021. As more cause of death information continues to be reported, it is expected that the number of deaths attributed to COVID-19 will rise for this period.
Excess mortality fell nationally from the end of February and through the spring of 2022
From the end of February and through the spring of 2022, the weekly number of deaths in Canada fell generally within the range of what was expected had there been no pandemic. This same trend was observed in Ontario and Quebec, despite COVID-19 deaths in Quebec remaining high.
In Saskatchewan, Alberta and British Columbia, however, significant periods of excess deaths were observed through the spring of 2022. However, based on the provisional data, it is unclear at this time to what extent this period of excess deaths was driven by COVID-19. Beyond deaths directly attributed to the disease itself, the statistical trend during the pandemic could be affected because of various factors, including delayed medical procedures, increased harms related to substance use, or changes in the prevalence of other diseases such as influenza.
In its commitment to keep Canadians informed on the effects of the pandemic, today's release includes a new and updated provisional dataset from the Canadian Vital Statistics Death Database, covering the period from January 1, 2020 to July 2, 2022. These data are updated with the most recent information available every month.
Note to readers
The data released today are provisional, as they are not based on all the deaths that occurred during the reference period because of reporting delays, and because they do not include Yukon. Provisional death counts are based on what is reported to Statistics Canada by provincial and territorial vital statistics registries. Provisional death estimates have been adjusted to account for incomplete data, where possible. The numbers of excess deaths discussed in this analysis refer to provisional estimates. Information on the methods used can be found in the "Definitions, data sources and methods" section of the Canadian Vital Statistics Death Database.
The provisional death counts and estimates released today may not match figures from other sources, such as media reports, or counts and estimates from provincial and territorial health authorities and other agencies.
There are a number of ways to measure excess mortality, and each has its strengths and weaknesses. There are also a number of challenges with measuring excess mortality, most importantly properly estimating the number of expected deaths that would occur in a non-COVID-19 context as a basis for comparison with current death counts. Significant variations may be observed from year to year in the annual death counts, particularly in the least-populated provinces and the territories. Moreover, yearly death counts may be affected by changes in the composition of the population, particularly in regard to age, and changes in mortality rates (e.g., reduced mortality). In the Canadian context, with an aging and growing population, the number of deaths has been increasing steadily in recent years, so a higher number of deaths in 2021 and 2022 would be expected, regardless of COVID-19.
A second challenge is the difficulty of collecting timely death counts. Taking these considerations into account, the method chosen by Statistics Canada to estimate expected deaths—which has also been adopted by organizations in several other countries, including the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention—is adapted from an infectious disease detection algorithm that has been largely utilized in the context of mortality surveillance in recent years.
More information on excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in Canada is available in the article "Excess mortality in Canada during the COVID-19 pandemic."
The tabulation of causes of death is based on the underlying cause of death, which is defined by the World Health Organization as the disease or injury that initiated the train of events leading directly to death, or as the circumstances of the accident or violence that produced the fatal injury. The underlying cause of death is selected from the causes and conditions listed on the medical certificate of cause of death completed by a medical professional, medical examiner or coroner. More information on causes of death, including the certification and classification of COVID-19 deaths, can be found in the study "COVID-19 death comorbidities in Canada."
References to the period from the end March 2020 to the middle of May 2022 refer to the period from the week ending March 28, 2020, to the week ending May 14, 2022.
References to the period from the beginning of January 2022 to the middle of February 2022 refer to the period from the week ending January 8, 2022, to the week ending February 19, 2022.
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The Life expectancy and deaths statistics portal, presenting information related to death in Canada, was updated today. It features the Provisional deaths and excess mortality in Canada dashboard, which brings recent insights into the trends in excess mortality together with interactive data visualization tools.
Contact information
For more information, or to enquire about the concepts, methods or data quality of this release, contact us (toll-free 1-800-263-1136; 514-283-8300; infostats@statcan.gc.ca) or Media Relations (statcan.mediahotline-ligneinfomedias.statcan@statcan.gc.ca).