Immigration and Diversity: Population Projections for Canada and its Regions, 2011 to 2036

by the Demosim team

Report prepared by Jean-Dominique Morency, Éric Caron Malenfant and Samuel MacIsaac

Release date: January 25, 2017

Acknowledgments

This report represents the work of the Demosim team, under the direction of Éric Caron-Malenfant. The following people are or were part of the Demosim team when these projections were developed: Éric Caron-Malenfant, Jonathan Chagnon, Simon Coulombe, Patrice Dion, Harry François, Nora Galbraith, Mark Knarr, Stéphanie Langlois, Samuel MacIsaac, Laurent Martel and Jean‑Dominique Morency of the Demography Division; Melanie Abeysundera, Dominic Grenier, Chantal Grondin and Soumaya Moussa of the Social Survey Methods Division; Karla Fox of the Statistical Research and Innovation Division; Martin Spielauer of the Social Analysis and Modelling Division; Jean-Pierre Corbeil and René Houle of the Social and Aboriginal Statistics Division.

These projections were developed thanks to the financial support of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC). Representatives of that department also contributed to the development of these projections, including the assumptions and scenarios used, through an interdepartmental working group and an interdepartmental steering committee.

We would also like to highlight the contribution of Demosim’s scientific committee. The committee, chaired by Michael Wolfson (University of Ottawa), is composed of Stewart Clatworthy (Four Directions Project Consultants), David Coleman (Oxford University), Eric Guimond (INAC), Peter Hicks (consultant), Jack Jedwab (Association for Canadian Studies), Don Kerr (University of Western Ontario) and Réjean Lachapelle (consultant).

A number of other people were involved in the production of this report, either directly or indirectly, by participating in reviewing the preliminary versions or helping to prepare data. These people are Daniel Bannatyne, Carol D’Aoust, Johanne Denis, Marc Lachance and André Lebel.

Highlights

Immigrant and second-generation populations

  • Based on the projection scenarios used, immigrants would represent between 24.5% and 30.0% of Canada’s population in 2036, compared with 20.7% in 2011. These would be the highest proportions since 1871.
  • In 2036, between 55.7% and 57.9% of Canada’s immigrant population could have been born in Asia, up from 44.8% estimated in 2011, while between 15.4% and 17.8% could have been born in Europe, down from 31.6% in 2011.
  • The proportion of the second-generation population, i.e., non‑immigrants with at least one parent born abroad, within the total Canadian population would also increase. In 2036, nearly one in five people would be of second generation, compared with 17.5% in 2011.
  • Together, immigrants and second-generation individuals could represent nearly one person in two (between 44.2% and 49.7%) in 2036, up from 2011 (38.2%).

Languages

  • According to all scenarios used for these projections, the population whose mother tongue is neither English nor French would be up and could account for between 26.1% and 30.6% of Canada’s population in 2036, versus 20.0% in 2011.
  • As in 2011, immigrants would make up the majority—close to 70% in all scenarios—of the population whose mother tongue is neither English nor French. However, close to 40% of these other-mother-tongue immigrants would have adopted English or French as the language spoken most often at home, either alone or with other languages.

Visible minority status

  • According to the results of these projections, in 2036, among the working-age population (15 to 64 years), of special interest for the application of the Employment Equity Act, between 34.7% and 39.9% could belong to a visible minority group, compared with 19.6% in 2011.
  • In all the projection scenarios, South Asian would still be the main visible minority group in 2036, followed by the Chinese. However, the most rapidly growing groups would be the Arab, Filipino and West Asian groups, given that they represent a higher proportion in the immigrant population than in the population as a whole.

Religion

  • The proportion of people who report having no religion in the total population would continue to increase, and could represent between 28.2% and 34.6% in 2036 (compared with 24.0% in 2011). This proportion would be similar to Catholics (between 29.2% and 32.8% in 2036, down from 2011 [38.8%]). In 2036, Catholicism would remain the religion with the largest number of followers.
  • The number of people affiliated with non-Christian religions could almost double by 2036 and could represent between 13% and 16% of Canada’s population, compared with 9% in 2011. The Muslim, Hindu and Sikh faiths, which are over-represented among immigrants compared to their demographic weight in the population as a whole, would see the number of their followers grow more quickly, even if it would continue to represent a modest share of the total Canadian population.

Regional analysis

  • The results of the different scenarios show that in all provinces and territories, the number and the proportion of immigrants in the population would increase between 2011 and 2036.
  • Based on all the projection scenarios, the geographic distribution of immigrants among the various regions in 2036 would be similar to the estimate in 2011. The vast majority (between 91.7% and 93.4%) would continue to live in a census metropolitan area (CMA). The three primary areas of residence for immigrants would remain Toronto (between 33.6% and 39.1%), Montréal (between 13.9% and 14.6%) and Vancouver (between 12.4% and 13.1%).
  • According to all the scenarios for these projections, more than one in two people in 2036 would be an immigrant or the child of an immigrant in Toronto (between 77.0% and 81.4%), Vancouver (between 69.4% and 74.0%), Calgary (between 56.2% and 63.3%) and Abbotsford – Mission (between 52.5% and 57.4%). In 2011, the corresponding proportions were 74.1% in Toronto, 65.6% in Vancouver, 48.0% in Calgary and 49.7% in Abbotsford – Mission.
  • The results of the projections show that the proportion of the working-age population (aged 15 to 64) who belong to a visible minority group would increase in all areas of the country, in all the scenarios. This proportion would surpass 40% in Toronto, Vancouver, Edmonton, Calgary, Winnipeg and Abbotsford – Mission. It would remain lower in non-metropolitan areas.
  • The results of the projections indicate that religious diversity would be up in all areas considered by 2036. The increase would be more substantial in areas that were the most homogeneous in 2011, i.e., Quebec (excluding Montréal) and in the Atlantic provinces, primarily because of the rise in the proportion of people who reported having no religion.
  • The most religiously diverse areas in 2011 would remain as such in 2036. Among them, Toronto, Vancouver, Calgary and Edmonton, which had a large proportion of immigrants among their population in 2011, would continue to be diverse, in particular as a result of the increase in the proportion of persons reporting a non-Christian religion.

Introduction

Canada’s population has long included a large proportion of immigrants. Since Canadian Confederation in 1867, the proportion of immigrants has never fallen below 13% (Statistics Canada 2010). This proportion has been continually rising over the past 30 years, to 20.7% in 2011.

This recent period was characterized by sustained immigration, increased diversification of the birthplaces of immigrants and immigrant selection intended to meet economic needs and, to a lesser extent, to promote family reunification and welcome vulnerable people (refugees). During this period, the vast majority of immigrants who settled in Canada were from Asia, with China, India and the Philippines being the main source countries (Chagnon 2013). In comparison, before the 1970s, immigrants who settled in Canada were mostly from Europe and the United States (Houle et al. 2016; Statistics Canada 2013a; McInnis 2000). As a result, the massive influx of immigrants from new immigration source countries during this 30-year period, combined with their Canadian-born progeny, transformed Canada’s ethnocultural portrait in a lasting way.

According to Coleman (2006), Canada was similar to a number of European countries, in that it began a third demographic transition in the early 1970s. Coleman (2006) noted that, in countries with high immigration and low fertility, the ethnocultural portrait of the population is destined to change substantially and permanently. Canada today is characterized by this dynamic, in which low fertility and high immigration lead to greater ethnocultural diversity within the population. As evidence of this assertion, international migratory increase surpassed natural increase in Canada in the late 1990s (Statistics Canada 2008), and international migratory increase is projected to remain the main component of this increase in the future (Statistics Canada 2014a).

In the context of these changes and their various potential public policy implications, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) asked Statistics Canada to prepare new projections of the ethnocultural composition of Canada’s population over the next 25 years. These new projections, which take into account the most recent demographic trends and data as well as the new methodological features and projected characteristics integrated into the Demosim projection model (see Caron-Malenfant [2015] for more information), are both an update and an extension of the projections published in 2010 (Statistics Canada 2010).

The main objective of these projections is to assess the sensitivity of ethnocultural diversity trends over the next 25 years to certain key aspects of immigration, such as the number of new immigrants, their geographic distribution and their origin. In addition, emphasis will be placed on how these key aspects of immigration could affect the future ethnocultural diversity of various regions of Canada.

This report consists of two main sections. The first section sets out the assumptions and scenarios chosen for this projection exercise. The second presents the key projection results in two parts: (1) an overall portrait; and (2) an analysis in the form of brief portraits of the provinces and a selection of regions (Montréal, Toronto, Vancouver and a region combining the three territories). Each portrait includes a table and one or more figures that summarize the main projection results at the regional level.  Readers and data users can refer to the tables in the appendix for more detailed results. Finally, a glossary with definitions of the more specialized terms is provided at the end of this report.

The methodological complement to this report gives an overview of the projection model, the base population, data sources and methods used. Readers interested in the methodology behind the projections are invited to consult the publication Demosim: An Overview of Methods and Data Sources, Demosim 2017 (Statistics Canada 2017a).

For more information about the other projected dimensions of the composition of the Canadian population, please consult the other two analytical reports from this Demosim projection cycle: Projections of the Aboriginal Population and Households in Canada, 2011 to 2036 (Statistics Canada 2015) and Language Projections for Canada, 2011 to 2036 (Statistics Canada 2017b).

Base population and projection model

The starting point for this projection exercise is May 10, 2011, the reference date of the 2011 Canadian Census of Population and the National Household Survey (NHS), which were conducted simultaneously. The base population was developed from the 2011 NHS microdata file. To ensure that the data would best represent Canada’s population on the NHS reference date, they were adjusted to take into account the institutional population, net census undercoverage and the population living on incompletely enumerated Indian settlements or reserves. In addition to the variables in the NHS, other variables were added to the base population through data linkage, such as immigrant admission category (economic immigrant, family reunification, refugees and other immigrants) for those who have been admitted since 1980. Following these adjustments, the Demosim base population contained close to 7.3 million records representing 34,273,000 people.

The projection results presented in this report were produced using the Demosim microsimulation projection model. In addition to the characteristics found in the usual projections developed using the cohort-component method (age, sex and place of residence), this model can be used to project many other characteristics of Canada’s population, particularly ethnocultural characteristics such as country of birth, generation status, visible minority group, religion and mother tongue. Demosim can also produce results at detailed geographic levels. These projections were developed at the CMA level. Many products have been developed using the Demosim model, including Projections of the Diversity of the Canadian Population, 2006 to 2031 (Statistics Canada 2010), Population Projections by Aboriginal Identity in Canada, 2006 to 2031 (Statistics Canada 2011) and, more recently, Projections of the Aboriginal Population and Households in Canada, 2011 to 2036 (Statistics Canada 2015).

To update the projected population characteristics during simulation, Demosim models a number of both demographic and non-demographic events. Demographic events include fertility, mortality and internal and international migration. Other events include intergenerational “transmission” of language, visible minority status and religion, as well as changes that may arise during a person’s life with regard, for example, to language spoken most often at home, self-reported religion and education.

The complete list of events modelled by Demosim as well as the data sources and methods that made up the projection model are described in a separate document (Box 1).

Start of Text Box

Box 1 – To find out more about the base population, data sources and methodology behind these projections

For more information on the content of the Demosim model, the base population, and the data sources and methods used to model the events that these projections take into account, please consult the publication Demosim: An Overview of Methods and Data Sources, Demosim 2017 (Statistics Canada 2017a), the methodological complement to this projection report.

End of Text Box

Assumptions and scenarios

Assumptions

As with every demographic projection exercise, assumptions on future trends needed to be developed for each demographic component. The assumptions for this projection exercise were chosen to meet two specific objectives: 1) to estimate the sensitivity of certain measures of ethnocultural diversity in Canada to specific aspects of immigration and other demographic and non-demographic components, and 2) to provide a plausible range of demographic trends for specific subpopulations (by visible minority group, religion, country of birth, etc.).

The assumptions were chosen by Statistics Canada in consultation with the IRCC. They were also submitted to the Advisory Committee onNote 1 Demographic Statistics and Studies, a committee of independent researchers and experts that gave some recommendations. The Demosim scientific committee also made recommendations on the choice of some assumptions.

To get the most out of existing analyses, several assumptions selected were inspired by previous projection exercises. Therefore, it was possible to draw on the analysis and consultation work done during preparation of the publication Population Projections for Canada (2013 to 2063), Provinces and Territories (2013 to 2038) (Statistics Canada 2014a), especially the assumptions relating to the key demographic components: fertility, mortality, emigration, immigration and non-permanent residents. More information about the reasons behind the selection of these assumptions can be found in the technical report for this projection exercise, Population Projections for Canada (2013 to 2063), Provinces and Territories (2013 to 2038): Technical Report on Methodology and Assumptions (Statistics Canada 2014b), which will be referred to extensively in this report. In addition, some assumptions used for the Projections of the Aboriginal Population and Households in Canada, 2011 to 2036 (Statistics Canada 2015), particularly those relating to Aboriginal populations, have been reproduced here in full.

The choice of assumptions was related to the methods used to model the different components projected. Readers will find additional information in the methodological report of these projections (Statistics Canada 2017a).

The next section presents the assumptions selected with regard to immigration, emigration, non‑permanent residents, internal migration, fertility, the attribution of characteristics to newborns, mortality, language changes and intragenerational religious mobilityNote 2 (Table 1).

Immigration

An analysis of recent immigration data shows that over the past 20 years, there have been many changes in the number of immigrants that Canada admits annually, in the composition of immigration by country of birth and where immigrants settle upon their arrival (Chagnon 2013). Given the fluctuations over time in each of these three dimensions of immigration—and therefore the uncertainty associated with them—more than one assumption was developed for each.

Annual number of immigrants

For the period from May 2011 to June 2016, the annual number of immigrants added to Canada’s population during the projection is based simply on the estimated numbers from the Demographic Estimates Program (DEP), which uses IRCC data. Starting in July 2016, three different assumptions have been used: low, medium and high immigration.

For the low-immigration assumption, the number of immigrants in 2016 corresponds to the lower limit of the range of the IRCC’s 2016 immigration plan (the most recent plan available when the report was prepared),Note 3Note 4 or 280,000 immigrants, representing an immigration rate of 8.0 immigrants per 1,000 population.Note 5 Starting in 2017, the low assumption involves a progressive decrease in the immigration rate to 5.0 immigrants per 1,000 population in 2022, which is held constant thereafter. This assumption is similar to the one used in Population Projections for Canada (2013 to 2063), Provinces and Territories (2013 to 2038) (Statistics Canada 2014a).Note 6

The medium and high assumptions were developed in a similar fashion. In 2016, the number of immigrants corresponds to the target number of immigrants in the 2016 immigration plan (300,000 immigrants, or a rate of 8.3 per 1,000 population) for the medium assumption and to the upper limit of the plan (305,000 immigrants, or a rate of 8.4 per 1,000 population) for the high assumption. Under the medium assumption, the rate is then held constant until the end of the projection, while under the high assumption, it progressively increases to 10.0 immigrants per 1,000 population by 2022 and subsequently remains constant.

The medium and high assumptions for this projection both involve slightly higher immigration rates than those used in Population Projections for Canada (2013 to 2063), Provinces and Territories (2013 to 2038) (Statistics Canada 2014a).Note 7 Since those projections were published, we have witnessed two consecutive years of increases in the federal government’s immigration targets following several years of stability.Note 8 The immigration rates selected for these two assumptions remain comparable to the average rates provided by the demographers who responded to the Opinion Survey on Future Demographic Trends.Note 9

Geographic distribution of immigrants upon arrival in Canada

Three assumptions on the geographic distribution of immigrants upon their arrival in Canada were also selected. These assumptions reflect the settlement patterns of immigrants that were observed during the following three periods: 1) July 2000 to June 2005, 2) July 2005 to June 2010 and 3) July 2010 to June 2015 (Figure 1).

Image 1 for Population Projections for Canada and its Regions

Description for Figure 1
Data table for figure 1
Provincial and territorial distribution of immigrants for three immigration periods (July to June), Canada, 2000 to 2015
Table summary
This table displays the results of Provincial and territorial distribution of immigrants for three immigration periods (July to June). The information is grouped by Region (appearing as row headers), 2000 to 2005, 2005 to 2010 and 2010 to 2015, calculated using percent units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Region 2000 to 2005 2005 to 2010 2010 to 2015
percent
N.L. 0.2 0.2 0.3
P.E.I. 0.1 0.5 0.6
N.S. 0.7 1 1
N.B. 0.3 0.7 0.9
Que. 16.7 18.4 20.2
Ont. 56.1 46.6 39
Man. 2.5 4.6 5.7
Sask. 0.8 1.8 4.1
Alta. 6.8 9.4 14.2
B.C. 15.7 16.8 13.9
Territories 0.1 0.1 0.2

Between 2000 and 2005, the distribution of immigrants upon arrival was particularly favourable to Ontario and British Colombia, but less so to Quebec and the Prairie provinces. In contrast, between 2010 and 2015, Ontario received proportionally far fewer immigrants than in the past, while Quebec and the Prairie provinces received more. As for 2005 to 2010, the provincial distribution represents a middle ground between the distributions estimated during the other two periodsNote 10 for most provinces and territories.

For 2016, an adjustment is made so that the share of immigrants received by Quebec corresponds to the share in the immigration plans of IRCC and Quebec’s Ministère de l’Immigration, de la Diversité et de l’Inclusion (MIDI).Note 11  In all cases, the proportion of immigrants received by Quebec in 2016 is lower than the proportion estimated for the three periods covered by the assumptions.

For the assumption that reflects the immigrant settlement patterns estimated during the period from July 2010 to June 2015, the adjustment for Quebec for 2016 is maintained until the end of the projection period, whereas in the other two assumptions, this adjustment is made only for 2016.

Composition of immigration by country of birthNote 12

Two assumptions, each established at the province and territory level, on the composition of immigration by country of birth were selected. The first assumption is based on the composition of the cohorts of immigrants admitted to Canada between July 2010 and June 2015. Overall, the five most significant source countries during this period were, in order, the Philippines (14.6% of all immigrants admitted to Canada), India (12.8%), China (11.3%), Iran (4.3%) and Pakistan (3.8%).

The second assumption is based on the period from July 2005 to June 2010. Under this assumption, China (13.0%) is the main source country for immigration to Canada, with a rate 1.7 percentage points higher than in the first assumption. The share of immigrants from India (12.4%), and from the Philippines in particular (9.5%), are lower under this assumption. Lastly, also in this assumption, Pakistan (3.8%) and the United States (3.4%) are ranked fourth and fifth among countries that contribute the most to immigration to Canada.

Emigration

Emigration is a demographic phenomenon that is difficult to estimate in Canada, in particular because people leaving the country have no legal obligation to report their departure. Nonetheless, we know that the number of emigrants is well below the number of immigrants. For example, between July 2015 and June 2016, a total of 321,000 immigrants settled in Canada, while the number of people who left the country was estimated at 64,000.Note 13

Three assumptions, largely inspired by those used in the publication Population Projections for Canada (2013 to 2063), Provinces and Territories (2013 to 2038) (Statistics Canada 2014a) were adopted to account for the inherent uncertainty of future emigration levels.Note 14Note 15Under the medium assumption, the risks of emigrating are in line with the average rates estimated by the Demographic Estimates Program (DEP) for the period from 2002/2003 to 2011/2012, and adjusted to account for some underestimation of the average rates in Ontario and British Colombia, in accordance with the method detailed in Bohnert et al. (2014). In this assumption, Canada’s emigration rate is approximately 1.8 emigrants per 1,000 populationNote 16. The low and high assumptions differ from the medium assumption only for the populations living in Ontario and British Colombia, in accordance with the emigration assumptions used in Population Projections for Canada (2013 to 2063), Provinces and Territories (2013 to 2038) (Statistics Canada 2014a).Note 17 Overall, the low assumption corresponds to an emigration rate of approximately 1.5 per 1,000 population and the high assumption to a rate of 2.0 per 1,000 population during the projection. Rates are held constant throughout the projection.

These assumptions of emigration levels all comprise the same assumption on the composition of emigration according to various characteristics, which is based on estimates from 1995 to 2010 calculated from a linkage of data from the Longitudinal Administrative Database (LAD) and immigration data. Analysis of these data shows that the characteristics of emigrants have remained stable over time. That is why only one assumptionNote 18 is proposed, suggesting a continuity in the differential emigration estimated from 1995 to 2010 into the future. According to this assumption, immigrants who have been in Canada for 15 years or less are more likely to emigrate than the rest of the population, with the exception of immigrants who arrived less than three years earlier and whose birthplace is not Western or Northern Europe, North America or Eastern Asia.

Net non-permanent residents

As with immigration and emigration, three assumptions were selected for future trends regarding net non-permanent residents.Note 19 These assumptions are largely consistent with those in the publication Population Projections for Canada (2013 to 2063), Provinces and Territories (2013 to 2038).

The annual number of net non-permanent residents in a given province or territory published by the DEP between May 2011 and June 2016 is used for all three assumptions.Note 20 Therefore, the three assumptions do not diverge until July 2016. For the low assumption, the net non-permanent residents is assumed to be nil for the rest of the projection. The medium and high assumptions both propose a progressive decrease in the net non-permanent residents to zero, in July 2021 for the medium assumption and in July 2031 for the high assumption.

The provincial/territorial distributions of net non-permanent residents are different under the medium and high assumptions. They are based on the ones used in the medium and high assumptions found in the publication Population Projections for Canada (2013 to 2063), Provinces and Territories (2013 to 2038) (Statistics Canada 2014a).Note 21

Internal migration

Migration between the different parts of Canada has always been one of the most unstable components over time (Willbond 2014). Given that internal migration flows are particularly sensitive to various social and economic factors, they naturally change considerably and are difficult to project (Smith 1986). This component is the main factor behind the increase in certain parts of the country (Dion and Coulombe 2008). The uncertainty surrounding the future course of this component, combined with the importance it represents from a demographic standpoint, requires special attention. For this reason, four separate assumptions were selected for internal migration.

The first assumption is similar to the one used in the publication Projections of the Aboriginal Population and Households in Canada, 2011 to 2036 (Statistics Canada 2015). In this assumption, the contribution of internal migration to population growth in the different parts of the country is a reflection of what was observed on average during the 1996-to-2001, 2001-to-2006 and 2006-to-2011 periods. The other three assumptions differ in that the contribution of migration to the increase in particular parts of the country is not based on the average of the three periods, but on only one of them: 2006 to 2011 for the second assumption, 2001 to 2006 for the third, and 1996 to 2001 for the fourth.

Only one assumption was selected for the composition of migration flows. It is similar to the one used in the publication Projections of the Aboriginal Population and Households in Canada, 2011 to 2036 (Statistics Canada 2015).Note 22 It is consistent with the average composition of migration observed during the combined periods 2000/2001, 2005/2006 and 2010/2011.Note 23 Analysis of the data from the 2001 and 2006 censuses and the 2011 NHS shows that the composition of migration flows changes little over time.

This analysis shows that, in general, well-educated people, young adults between the ages of 15 and 34 and people without children are more likely to migrate than the rest of the population when several characteristics such as immigrant status, time elapsed since immigration, generation status and knowledge of official languages are controlled.Note 24 It also shows that immigrants, and in particular those who arrived recently in Canada, migrate more than non-immigrants. Moreover, the internal migration patterns of immigrants differ from those of non-immigrants. For example, immigrants are less likely to move to a non-metropolitan area (Figures 2a and 2b). The data also reveal that people who belong to a visible minority are less likely to migrate than the rest of the population, while people who know both English and French are more likely to migrate when the above variables are controlled. These results may naturally differ from one part of the country to the next (Dion and Coulombe 2008).

Image 2a for Population Projections for Canada and its Regions

Description for Figure 2a
Data table for figure 2a
Interregional migration flows, immigrants, total for the 1996-to-2001, 2001-to-2006 and 2006-to-2011 periods, Canada
Part 1
Table summary
This table displays the results of Interregional migration flows. The information is grouped by Region (appearing as row headers), Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and Quebec, St-John's, Rest of Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, Halifax, Rest of Nova Scotia, Moncton, Saint John, Rest of New Brunswick, Saguenay, Québec, Sherbrooke, Trois-Rivières, Montréal, Ottawa - Gatineau (Quebec part) and Rest of Quebec, calculated using number units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Region Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and Quebec
St-John's Rest of Newfoundland and Labrador Prince Edward Island Halifax Rest of Nova Scotia Moncton Saint John Rest of New Brunswick Saguenay Québec Sherbrooke Trois-Rivières Montréal Ottawa - Gatineau (Quebec part) Rest of Quebec
number
St-John's - 105 10 110 25 15 25 35 0 10 15 0 85 10 0
Rest of Newfoundland and Labrador 330 - 40 135 65 0 0 30 0 0 0 0 60 0 10
Prince Edward Island 20 10 - 100 60 25 15 45 0 0 0 0 15 45 10
Halifax 50 65 85 - 760 60 60 130 0 40 0 0 370 35 20
Rest of Nova Scotia 30 85 65 1,105 - 35 25 75 0 0 0 0 105 10 50
Moncton 20 0 10 85 40 - 20 245 10 10 25 20 225 15 20
Saint John 35 40 40 80 25 50 - 170 0 0 10 0 35 0 0
Rest of New Brunswick 10 35 40 250 130 285 250 - 0 80 0 0 415 20 20
Saguenay 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - 80 40 10 310 60 160
Québec 10 10 0 25 0 25 25 130 80 - 110 125 3,075 510 1,310
Sherbrooke 0 0 0 0 0 25 0 10 0 165 - 15 1,790 180 450
Trois-Rivières 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 130 30 - 790 60 335
Montréal 35 10 65 365 100 145 75 210 155 2,115 1,005 360 - 2,265 8,425
Ottawa - Gatineau (Quebec part) 10 10 0 50 0 0 0 15 0 90 20 10 905 - 230
Rest of Quebec 15 10 15 10 35 15 10 35 65 1,165 585 250 6,865 390 -
Ottawa - Gatineau (Ontario part) 50 10 30 380 215 80 40 125 15 165 65 10 2,310 3,550 175
Kingston 75 0 0 85 35 10 20 70 0 25 0 0 220 15 20
Peterborough 0 30 0 0 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 35 0 0
Oshawa 10 10 25 15 30 0 10 25 0 0 0 0 60 0 40
Toronto 225 225 195 1,170 645 150 85 445 0 120 40 25 6,400 300 300
Hamilton 35 30 30 120 90 20 10 75 0 15 10 0 400 30 45
St. Catharines - Niagara 10 10 10 50 30 0 10 20 0 10 0 0 175 25 0
Kitchener - Cambridge - Waterloo 30 0 0 80 90 10 25 35 0 0 0 10 300 45 15
Brantford 15 0 10 0 10 10 0 10 10 0 0 0 30 0 10
Guelph 0 0 35 30 35 0 20 10 0 0 0 0 65 0 0
London 10 0 10 135 10 10 15 50 0 10 0 0 355 15 0
Windsor 0 0 0 20 10 0 10 0 0 10 0 0 220 40 0
Barrie 10 0 10 0 20 0 10 50 0 10 0 0 45 10 15
Greater Sudbury 10 0 10 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 40 45 10
Thunder Bay 0 0 10 0 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 0
Rest of Ontario 15 60 75 140 215 20 85 225 15 25 0 0 730 140 175
Winnipeg 35 25 45 110 75 10 10 25 20 20 35 0 410 145 0
Rest of Manitoba 0 15 20 20 45 0 0 45 0 0 0 0 40 0 10
Regina 0 0 0 15 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 0 40 0 0
Saskatoon 10 0 15 20 65 0 0 35 0 0 0 0 155 10 10
Rest of Saskatchewan 0 0 0 15 35 0 0 20 0 0 0 0 65 0 20
Calgary 75 35 75 280 195 35 55 110 0 15 0 0 735 55 10
Edmonton 60 0 50 185 125 15 15 50 0 15 35 0 515 55 25
Rest of Alberta 25 85 55 95 110 0 15 50 10 15 0 0 150 40 35
Kelowna 0 10 10 0 10 0 0 20 0 0 0 0 40 0 15
Vancouver 60 30 20 375 150 15 50 145 0 25 20 0 2,890 45 60
Victoria 20 10 0 65 60 0 35 15 0 0 0 10 175 10 40
Abbotsford - Mission 0 0 0 10 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 40 0 0
Rest of British Columbia 50 10 75 115 260 35 25 95 0 30 0 0 215 10 90
Territories 0 20 0 25 45 15 0 40 0 0 0 0 45 0 10
Data table for figure 2a
Interregional migration flows, immigrants, total for the 1996-to-2001, 2001-to-2006 and 2006-to-2011 periods, Canada
Part 2
Table summary
This table displays the results of Interregional migration flows. The information is grouped by Region (appearing as row headers), Ontario, Ottawa - Gatineau (Ontario part), Kingston, Peterborough, Oshawa, Toronto, Hamilton, St. Catharines - Niagara, Kitchener - Cambridge - Waterloo, Brantford, Guelph, London, Windsor, Barrie, Greater Sudbury, Thunder Bay and Rest of Ontario, calculated using number units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Region Ontario
Ottawa - Gatineau (Ontario part) Kingston Peterborough Oshawa Toronto Hamilton St. Catharines - Niagara Kitchener - Cambridge - Waterloo Brantford Guelph London Windsor Barrie Greater Sudbury Thunder Bay Rest of Ontario
number
St-John's 120 15 0 15 360 30 40 45 10 0 10 0 0 10 0 65
Rest of Newfoundland and Labrador 130 0 0 10 210 10 20 35 0 20 0 0 0 0 0 110
Prince Edward Island 65 0 0 0 240 20 0 65 10 0 45 100 15 0 0 85
Halifax 635 75 10 55 1,855 205 25 125 0 40 70 120 55 0 10 205
Rest of Nova Scotia 165 40 0 70 495 50 25 30 0 50 95 40 25 30 25 390
Moncton 75 0 0 10 210 25 20 15 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 55
Saint John 75 10 20 0 255 0 35 10 0 10 15 40 15 0 0 55
Rest of New Brunswick 260 60 55 40 585 70 25 75 0 0 45 25 25 20 0 270
Saguenay 0 10 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 25
Québec 250 30 10 45 435 90 0 45 0 0 20 35 10 0 0 100
Sherbrooke 115 0 0 10 320 85 60 25 0 50 20 10 0 0 0 35
Trois-Rivières 15 0 0 0 25 15 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 65
Montréal 4,955 400 80 290 15,585 965 160 655 120 205 485 500 160 110 40 1,750
Ottawa - Gatineau (Quebec part) 2,225 10 0 10 175 10 20 25 55 0 40 0 0 0 0 170
Rest of Quebec 235 25 10 10 360 80 30 80 0 10 40 10 55 30 0 215
Ottawa - Gatineau (Ontario part) - 390 55 230 8,550 810 195 745 40 100 375 310 110 105 105 3,170
Kingston 855 - 30 95 2,105 230 60 130 10 40 105 15 55 15 35 845
Peterborough 130 50 - 400 1,145 30 30 35 10 70 40 0 30 0 10 625
Oshawa 245 35 310 - 6,215 235 135 205 70 50 130 50 125 20 0 1,775
Toronto 8,065 1,470 1,335 15,600 - 17,700 4,580 10,225 1,030 3,410 4,665 3,355 7,435 545 355 20,985
Hamilton 670 160 55 240 14,060 - 1,585 1,020 725 360 525 360 245 45 25 3,270
St. Catharines - Niagara 360 65 25 90 4,190 1,525 - 375 80 235 190 135 75 45 25 830
Kitchener - Cambridge - Waterloo 500 125 55 210 7,465 985 175 - 450 940 590 305 45 40 25 2,800
Brantford 30 0 0 35 650 650 50 265 - 75 95 40 10 10 0 630
Guelph 250 30 0 10 2,475 435 75 1,170 60 - 115 30 20 25 20 1,090
London 615 85 30 125 6,485 820 125 820 95 305 - 475 100 50 20 2,895
Windsor 445 30 15 75 3,970 410 105 525 10 130 675 - 25 15 10 1,370
Barrie 100 60 15 155 2,550 190 100 85 70 50 130 50 - 10 0 1,515
Greater Sudbury 210 25 15 30 825 90 100 115 0 10 20 20 65 - 0 465
Thunder Bay 70 115 10 15 330 25 30 25 0 10 10 20 35 15 - 235
Rest of Ontario 2,835 975 665 1,330 10,920 2,120 940 2,245 745 760 3,400 1,890 1,345 485 455 -
Winnipeg 635 55 0 95 2,725 155 215 280 10 30 215 45 25 25 30 355
Rest of Manitoba 85 25 0 10 455 20 15 35 0 0 100 0 75 20 30 355
Regina 100 20 0 10 360 110 30 85 0 0 25 40 0 0 0 35
Saskatoon 195 25 0 15 455 40 35 45 15 30 100 50 0 0 30 30
Rest of Saskatchewan 60 0 0 35 235 50 15 65 30 0 30 20 10 20 0 170
Calgary 650 75 25 105 3,720 285 135 350 20 35 250 235 30 30 85 455
Edmonton 660 125 0 50 2,230 185 105 195 20 70 225 100 35 0 20 315
Rest of Alberta 180 40 65 35 580 50 30 120 0 0 115 65 10 15 25 525
Kelowna 20 0 0 10 70 20 15 0 0 0 15 10 0 10 0 40
Vancouver 1,835 370 30 170 11,605 545 185 750 10 170 385 325 85 40 120 725
Victoria 325 20 10 65 685 40 85 140 10 0 25 0 30 0 15 155
Abbotsford - Mission 20 15 0 0 340 25 30 30 10 0 0 10 10 0 0 55
Rest of British Columbia 370 80 20 15 575 70 125 65 20 30 150 60 55 0 75 535
Territories 150 0 0 10 140 10 25 35 0 0 25 10 20 0 10 110
Data table for figure 2a
Interregional migration flows, immigrants, total for the 1996-to-2001, 2001-to-2006 and 2006-to-2011 periods, Canada
Part 3
Table summary
This table displays the results of Interregional migration flows. The information is grouped by Region (appearing as row headers), Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta, British Columbia and territories, Winnipeg, Rest of Manitoba, Regina, Saskatoon, Rest of Saskatchewan, Calgary, Edmonton, Rest of Alberta, Kelowna, Vancouver, Victoria, Abbotsford - Mission, Rest of British Columbia and Territories, calculated using number units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Region Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta, British Columbia and territories
Winnipeg Rest of Manitoba Regina Saskatoon Rest of Saskatchewan Calgary Edmonton Rest of Alberta Kelowna Vancouver Victoria Abbotsford - Mission Rest of British Columbia Territories
number
St-John's 55 65 10 0 0 150 200 35 10 105 25 0 25 15
Rest of Newfoundland and Labrador 40 10 10 10 15 35 30 200 10 90 25 0 30 15
Prince Edward Island 0 0 0 0 0 50 0 85 0 120 0 0 45 0
Halifax 150 25 20 20 15 780 280 115 45 405 130 0 145 20
Rest of Nova Scotia 55 15 0 0 30 190 140 130 15 210 160 25 190 35
Moncton 0 10 0 0 0 75 80 10 0 20 15 10 15 0
Saint John 15 0 0 15 0 170 50 10 0 85 0 0 15 10
Rest of New Brunswick 40 45 0 15 30 135 335 200 0 95 50 0 75 20
Saguenay 0 0 0 0 0 0 50 40 0 25 0 0 0 10
Québec 30 0 30 0 0 260 120 115 20 145 10 0 35 0
Sherbrooke 15 0 10 0 10 220 85 65 0 40 0 15 25 20
Trois-Rivières 0 0 0 0 0 65 35 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Montréal 505 65 110 435 50 4,525 3,080 495 125 3,640 290 105 475 55
Ottawa - Gatineau (Quebec part) 20 0 0 0 0 95 50 15 0 25 15 0 25 10
Rest of Quebec 30 25 0 45 0 140 165 50 25 105 15 60 85 75
Ottawa - Gatineau (Ontario part) 325 65 85 80 80 1,420 1,140 185 245 1,760 465 15 430 100
Kingston 40 15 10 30 15 180 200 45 0 380 55 10 85 0
Peterborough 10 0 0 10 0 60 10 75 20 60 10 0 55 10
Oshawa 15 10 0 15 0 75 100 35 10 110 40 20 75 10
Toronto 1,785 550 1,015 1,290 270 10,645 8,520 2,875 395 11,175 1,165 340 1,675 425
Hamilton 240 35 65 100 95 435 745 310 35 735 185 40 280 35
St. Catharines - Niagara 35 15 0 35 20 425 415 230 10 325 155 20 165 20
Kitchener - Cambridge - Waterloo 115 10 70 30 0 530 335 275 15 410 150 45 150 10
Brantford 10 10 0 0 10 65 25 10 10 85 10 0 0 0
Guelph 40 0 0 90 0 115 80 30 25 205 55 30 70 0
London 100 55 45 15 25 895 630 260 60 670 205 15 205 20
Windsor 70 10 15 90 15 980 535 175 30 595 10 50 85 10
Barrie 10 0 0 0 0 65 95 30 30 75 35 10 130 15
Greater Sudbury 10 0 0 10 10 65 25 40 15 35 0 0 35 0
Thunder Bay 65 35 0 15 0 70 120 65 35 70 75 10 80 0
Rest of Ontario 275 395 50 70 215 740 690 1,365 125 765 230 30 965 85
Winnipeg - 2,155 65 205 95 2,470 2,005 480 230 2,675 290 135 640 60
Rest of Manitoba 2,905 - 25 70 210 165 310 610 120 270 35 15 465 25
Regina 130 35 - 235 555 665 225 150 65 275 45 20 90 15
Saskatoon 215 50 270 - 610 790 535 400 95 610 145 30 300 10
Rest of Saskatchewan 125 175 610 930 - 325 385 665 25 220 35 55 350 20
Calgary 520 110 295 410 295 - 3,760 6,525 685 4,845 830 250 3,020 105
Edmonton 345 80 170 210 225 4,795 - 3,900 615 3,535 805 180 1,775 255
Rest of Alberta 175 460 185 170 580 6,725 6,370 - 315 1,120 265 130 1,980 110
Kelowna 60 10 30 10 40 330 170 110 - 1,145 210 135 1,310 10
Vancouver 1,060 110 360 415 205 6,400 3,910 1,510 1,800 - 3,240 4,665 13,860 320
Victoria 65 0 30 50 15 530 260 220 235 3,285 - 125 3,085 50
Abbotsford - Mission 40 65 10 30 15 380 215 110 175 3,745 130 - 1,855 10
Rest of British Columbia 230 75 40 120 350 2,075 1,345 1,725 2,035 9,500 3,185 1,790 - 195
Territories 70 35 0 50 20 215 405 270 25 215 110 10 400 -

Image 2b for Population Projections for Canada and its Regions

Description for Figure 2b
Data table for figure 2b
Interregional migration flows, non-immigrants, total for the 1996-to-2001, 2001-to-2006 and 2006-to-2011 periods, Canada
Part 1
Table summary
This table displays the results of Interregional migration flows. The information is grouped by Region (appearing as row headers), Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and Quebec, St-John's, Rest of Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, Halifax, Rest of Nova Scotia, Moncton, Saint John, Rest of New Brunswick, Saguenay, Québec, Sherbrooke, Trois-Rivières, Montréal, Ottawa - Gatineau (Quebec part) and Rest of Quebec, calculated using number units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Region Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and Quebec
St-John's Rest of Newfoundland and Labrador Prince Edward Island Halifax Rest of Nova Scotia Moncton Saint John Rest of New Brunswick Saguenay Québec Sherbrooke Trois-Rivières Montréal Ottawa - Gatineau (Quebec part) Rest of Quebec
number
St-John's - 8,630 155 2,000 895 205 160 555 0 35 15 0 575 90 95
Rest of Newfoundland and Labrador 17,010 - 625 2,520 2,155 460 290 1,080 15 135 10 20 320 20 485
Prince Edward Island 335 490 - 1,985 1,330 690 380 1,250 0 65 20 0 355 140 250
Halifax 2,130 2,385 2,155 - 25,080 2,095 1,425 3,300 160 495 90 10 2,365 400 645
Rest of Nova Scotia 1,250 2,165 1,705 28,445 - 2,025 1,025 4,030 10 165 145 15 875 125 505
Moncton 210 245 565 2,385 1,480 - 1,060 12,270 10 300 80 35 1,105 270 400
Saint John 895 875 385 2,040 750 1,830 - 5,970 0 10 10 0 310 80 40
Rest of New Brunswick 775 1,510 1,700 4,990 4,270 16,760 6,605 - 105 1,750 155 85 3,240 780 2,885
Saguenay 0 40 0 165 75 45 0 90 - 6,130 810 445 7,910 960 9,445
Québec 40 20 130 520 175 365 65 1,660 3,500 - 2,395 2,505 28,855 5,010 49,245
Sherbrooke 25 10 0 90 65 145 15 200 320 3,590 - 625 12,290 925 19,425
Trois-Rivières 0 20 0 0 10 15 0 85 290 3,385 865 - 9,705 755 15,080
Montréal 380 115 370 1,705 995 1,130 295 3,015 4,240 25,680 11,585 6,670 - 11,305 208,085
Ottawa - Gatineau (Quebec part) 30 40 115 230 70 145 15 510 325 2,705 560 385 9,335 - 11,065
Rest of Quebec 175 220 185 435 535 605 120 2,390 10,880 64,220 23,395 18,320 138,395 13,160 -
Ottawa - Gatineau (Ontario part) 1,020 650 745 3,755 1,580 990 350 1,740 85 905 225 30 7,710 14,510 2,535
Kingston 315 160 80 1,315 435 105 120 735 45 400 0 0 875 470 120
Peterborough 30 100 60 155 290 15 20 240 0 15 0 0 200 10 35
Oshawa 155 830 325 365 480 60 180 355 0 45 30 15 525 45 380
Toronto 2,985 6,690 1,800 6,535 4,560 1,525 900 3,305 35 915 215 120 16,170 1,055 2,070
Hamilton 465 390 485 975 1,000 245 190 710 0 65 35 0 1,100 245 305
St. Catharines - Niagara 175 155 180 550 715 140 60 410 0 30 25 15 560 140 270
Kitchener - Cambridge - Waterloo 730 1,175 110 580 1,010 215 130 290 0 120 30 0 955 70 295
Brantford 10 80 55 90 250 90 120 120 15 25 0 0 135 25 145
Guelph 210 105 180 250 345 95 65 170 0 15 25 0 410 60 120
London 240 165 155 850 460 150 130 550 45 60 20 10 1,050 105 185
Windsor 70 100 60 370 150 35 95 155 0 70 45 0 420 140 230
Barrie 145 335 140 585 320 90 45 335 15 35 15 0 290 65 280
Greater Sudbury 35 55 120 285 145 50 35 165 20 60 0 0 290 330 375
Thunder Bay 105 80 15 120 155 30 35 50 0 0 0 10 160 50 125
Rest of Ontario 1,015 2,405 930 4,415 4,460 640 425 4,725 435 1,025 215 155 4,975 2,695 4,980
Winnipeg 820 705 190 980 675 115 140 565 170 185 75 20 1,300 385 220
Rest of Manitoba 175 740 120 330 485 75 65 625 0 115 0 0 335 85 340
Regina 75 70 70 240 90 30 15 120 0 80 45 10 335 55 155
Saskatoon 40 35 85 330 225 40 30 115 0 40 0 0 560 55 65
Rest of Saskatchewan 90 230 60 220 555 130 35 245 55 120 40 0 405 20 255
Calgary 1,710 980 835 2,645 2,755 690 1,000 1,750 0 390 95 20 2,905 370 800
Edmonton 1,155 1,420 720 1,890 2,200 630 460 2,195 65 480 270 70 1,965 515 920
Rest of Alberta 1,900 5,190 795 1,980 3,720 685 670 1,955 185 580 95 105 1,115 310 1,020
Kelowna 60 10 75 90 75 20 15 145 0 30 15 0 160 0 165
Vancouver 600 355 285 2,235 1,170 310 285 765 40 490 60 55 6,130 345 825
Victoria 175 85 160 1,440 755 40 40 220 30 180 20 0 900 285 245
Abbotsford - Mission 30 30 110 90 115 15 25 110 0 10 10 0 170 0 80
Rest of British Columbia 545 935 430 1,385 2,040 360 400 1,135 180 205 150 20 1,630 230 1,000
Territories 420 820 160 370 920 80 40 465 15 55 25 10 270 190 360
Data table for figure 2b
Interregional migration flows, non-immigrants, total for the 1996-to-2001, 2001-to-2006 and 2006-to-2011 periods, Canada
Part 2
Table summary
This table displays the results of Interregional migration flows. The information is grouped by Region (appearing as row headers), Ontario, Ottawa - Gatineau (Ontario part), Kingston, Peterborough, Oshawa, Toronto, Hamilton, St. Catharines - Niagara, Kitchener - Cambridge - Waterloo, Brantford, Guelph, London, Windsor, Barrie, Greater Sudbury, Thunder Bay and Rest of Ontario, calculated using number units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Region Ontario
Ottawa - Gatineau (Ontario part) Kingston Peterborough Oshawa Toronto Hamilton St. Catharines - Niagara Kitchener - Cambridge - Waterloo Brantford Guelph London Windsor Barrie Greater Sudbury Thunder Bay Rest of Ontario
number
St-John's 1,220 345 55 235 2,025 245 110 435 40 45 305 80 150 100 50 990
Rest of Newfoundland and Labrador 745 205 35 320 2,645 205 245 835 105 175 215 60 205 80 65 1,820
Prince Edward Island 805 155 45 120 1,260 260 120 210 55 85 180 30 140 25 10 795
Halifax 6,440 885 165 585 7,355 965 255 810 95 180 630 240 505 140 125 3,645
Rest of Nova Scotia 2,235 545 150 445 2,830 700 325 720 170 245 565 105 220 140 150 4,350
Moncton 1,075 140 30 110 980 205 100 65 10 45 120 55 40 30 10 635
Saint John 505 75 10 125 910 330 115 80 15 45 165 60 65 10 0 720
Rest of New Brunswick 2,565 855 240 405 2,660 305 225 495 110 105 425 135 460 335 70 4,955
Saguenay 140 55 0 0 85 10 0 0 20 0 20 0 30 15 0 530
Québec 1,655 490 55 75 1,290 115 60 110 30 20 60 60 95 25 0 1,340
Sherbrooke 370 65 0 20 485 55 55 60 0 60 30 20 15 20 10 435
Trois-Rivières 60 30 0 10 105 0 15 35 0 10 20 0 0 0 0 90
Montréal 12,135 1,230 270 1,015 23,155 1,850 525 1,415 200 585 1,250 695 360 370 175 7,830
Ottawa - Gatineau (Quebec part) 10,495 130 15 65 685 65 90 150 70 10 165 35 15 115 20 2,605
Rest of Quebec 2,175 335 65 330 1,485 300 175 345 25 40 200 150 130 280 115 5,780
Ottawa - Gatineau (Ontario part) - 4,640 960 1,365 20,255 2,545 1,295 2,305 395 725 2,220 825 1,115 1,420 730 41,465
Kingston 5,815 - 385 615 8,225 1,035 395 770 105 280 910 160 325 200 110 13,100
Peterborough 1,680 780 - 2,160 4,710 565 315 465 225 260 610 140 420 145 130 9,890
Oshawa 1,760 450 2,840 - 22,060 1,210 740 985 260 540 885 370 1,045 350 215 20,660
Toronto 21,600 6,490 6,880 53,720 - 51,420 12,385 22,660 3,560 12,395 14,265 5,100 30,895 3,920 1,735 110,815
Hamilton 2,950 815 620 1,310 34,140 - 9,060 5,140 6,605 2,535 3,345 755 1,435 635 245 24,615
St. Catharines - Niagara 1,655 665 345 1,015 10,885 8,230 - 2,135 745 785 1,995 525 590 300 395 10,855
Kitchener - Cambridge - Waterloo 2,740 765 455 895 19,220 4,405 1,225 - 3,935 5,030 3,685 800 1,095 550 410 27,640
Brantford 270 145 120 240 2,520 3,155 480 2,325 - 280 1,110 205 330 140 40 8,105
Guelph 1,405 350 230 290 9,455 2,220 500 6,705 505 - 1,100 290 380 335 115 9,890
London 3,230 1,070 535 915 17,995 2,890 1,310 4,290 1,030 1,280 - 2,180 955 565 235 29,070
Windsor 1,120 325 165 620 8,555 1,065 655 1,395 285 455 3,655 - 305 250 100 13,975
Barrie 1,105 590 375 820 12,395 1,225 640 820 235 290 1,055 315 - 680 140 18,335
Greater Sudbury 2,795 355 175 575 4,110 590 600 795 100 205 760 310 1,085 - 270 11,550
Thunder Bay 800 310 90 200 1,900 310 275 230 160 150 335 80 350 320 - 5,860
Rest of Ontario 36,535 15,185 11,520 13,995 53,585 16,945 10,775 22,915 7,225 8,250 32,720 13,795 17,290 13,945 9,340 -
Winnipeg 3,215 615 50 290 5,785 690 420 555 50 260 735 200 365 145 800 4,605
Rest of Manitoba 765 175 30 50 985 145 115 200 80 65 185 85 120 250 295 2,730
Regina 705 35 10 30 765 155 45 120 10 120 125 40 40 20 20 510
Saskatoon 675 160 50 45 1,065 150 200 120 20 80 150 165 70 40 85 645
Rest of Saskatchewan 380 60 60 70 635 445 225 230 85 45 115 85 125 90 80 1,810
Calgary 3,400 680 275 730 10,010 1,645 680 1,455 215 310 1,375 515 320 250 600 5,235
Edmonton 3,480 1,055 160 345 5,350 750 390 610 130 230 1,055 280 415 295 460 4,245
Rest of Alberta 1,880 645 290 420 2,530 740 690 630 120 215 745 280 580 380 355 6,475
Kelowna 315 15 50 65 530 85 180 95 30 15 205 30 15 65 90 565
Vancouver 5,545 780 235 735 17,985 1,870 955 1,360 175 480 1,365 615 495 285 545 4,245
Victoria 2,620 385 90 170 2,255 300 215 370 40 125 325 60 120 30 270 1,745
Abbotsford - Mission 105 40 10 50 565 120 70 110 10 15 45 35 15 35 30 335
Rest of British Columbia 2,470 555 335 420 3,010 760 645 510 160 415 820 315 435 455 540 6,470
Territories 1,080 150 20 110 430 120 175 150 30 0 50 45 50 110 110 1,485
Data table for figure 2b
Interregional migration flows, non-immigrants, total for the 1996-to-2001, 2001-to-2006 and 2006-to-2011 periods, Canada
Part 3
Table summary
This table displays the results of Interregional migration flows. The information is grouped by Region (appearing as row headers), Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta, British Columbia and territories, Winnipeg, Rest of Manitoba, Regina, Saskatoon, Rest of Saskatchewan, Calgary, Edmonton, Rest of Alberta, Kelowna, Vancouver, Victoria, Abbotsford - Mission, Rest of British Columbia and Territories, calculated using number units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Region Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta, British Columbia and territories
Winnipeg Rest of Manitoba Regina Saskatoon Rest of Saskatchewan Calgary Edmonton Rest of Alberta Kelowna Vancouver Victoria Abbotsford - Mission Rest of British Columbia Territories
number
St-John's 220 260 80 55 85 1,655 2,085 2,400 70 1,180 270 25 490 575
Rest of Newfoundland and Labrador 310 340 160 90 610 1,615 2,645 11,715 45 325 195 10 980 1,305
Prince Edward Island 100 175 75 20 50 1,080 885 1,415 120 340 170 15 485 210
Halifax 865 370 200 250 260 4,520 3,510 3,430 150 2,400 1,470 75 1,265 830
Rest of Nova Scotia 865 465 165 150 855 3,590 3,665 6,965 330 1,355 660 85 2,465 825
Moncton 180 85 10 30 55 835 640 900 50 195 85 20 230 155
Saint John 120 100 60 85 60 885 1,105 865 0 270 115 35 225 80
Rest of New Brunswick 470 870 190 150 415 2,400 3,115 5,160 75 800 470 35 1,525 440
Saguenay 65 0 0 0 10 45 160 175 10 90 30 0 135 20
Québec 240 135 80 50 105 895 925 855 60 625 150 55 540 185
Sherbrooke 25 55 10 20 35 340 235 165 35 225 55 25 80 30
Trois-Rivières 0 20 0 10 0 215 105 70 0 50 30 0 100 25
Montréal 1,240 355 270 870 450 7,480 5,130 1,855 295 7,670 1,170 150 2,065 575
Ottawa - Gatineau (Quebec part) 175 65 40 20 130 280 395 180 0 200 85 15 285 140
Rest of Quebec 230 310 45 125 255 1,030 1,340 1,530 180 855 220 185 1,640 350
Ottawa - Gatineau (Ontario part) 1,500 430 505 480 380 4,120 3,155 2,105 705 6,180 2,480 180 2,465 885
Kingston 320 200 90 190 150 1,225 1,125 755 75 1,200 600 45 665 185
Peterborough 80 60 35 75 85 345 255 515 100 420 100 0 410 125
Oshawa 160 140 0 105 80 1,000 720 765 90 895 175 75 475 110
Toronto 3,550 1,115 1,630 2,285 1,085 19,550 13,250 7,305 1,480 22,050 3,930 585 6,490 1,195
Hamilton 755 215 125 210 285 1,870 2,005 1,575 320 2,390 585 255 1,600 190
St. Catharines - Niagara 545 105 100 195 175 1,250 1,370 1,225 105 1,185 355 110 955 100
Kitchener - Cambridge - Waterloo 475 200 390 200 225 1,970 1,030 1,125 215 1,385 550 60 995 210
Brantford 65 90 10 15 15 255 285 275 40 350 110 0 280 20
Guelph 150 35 75 180 35 950 495 355 55 940 155 45 215 75
London 465 200 105 220 170 2,565 1,890 1,590 205 2,515 835 120 1,405 110
Windsor 225 90 90 285 195 2,135 1,440 935 75 1,415 285 75 570 50
Barrie 85 235 125 30 75 815 510 630 80 515 295 0 685 85
Greater Sudbury 130 150 0 65 120 435 480 595 25 325 125 15 365 100
Thunder Bay 935 350 25 75 235 1,410 995 1,060 240 545 155 110 685 150
Rest of Ontario 4,600 3,240 560 1,000 2,400 6,885 7,265 12,980 825 4,940 2,880 360 9,310 1,350
Winnipeg - 33,085 1,215 1,240 1,750 8,625 6,670 5,310 1,405 6,850 1,865 460 3,900 660
Rest of Manitoba 37,470 - 915 1,590 5,290 3,100 2,895 6,405 480 1,325 460 265 2,935 390
Regina 1,280 840 - 4,185 14,100 4,890 2,695 3,795 515 1,500 560 175 1,550 175
Saskatoon 1,340 1,525 4,910 - 22,185 6,085 4,995 5,840 685 1,900 805 255 3,160 315
Rest of Saskatchewan 1,790 4,235 18,525 27,810 - 5,115 5,775 21,030 675 1,455 395 310 4,435 665
Calgary 4,315 2,355 2,785 5,150 6,650 - 19,250 63,480 6,700 15,450 6,090 1,120 25,185 1,000
Edmonton 2,950 1,880 1,785 2,590 5,495 23,575 - 56,790 4,430 12,585 4,545 1,020 18,350 1,965
Rest of Alberta 2,280 4,395 2,020 4,495 16,940 50,355 74,220 - 3,795 6,215 3,000 925 28,125 2,010
Kelowna 395 245 285 405 620 3,775 2,175 2,665 - 6,410 1,845 795 13,335 270
Vancouver 3,440 1,165 1,240 1,770 1,550 16,205 10,400 7,140 10,785 - 14,395 22,580 82,080 1,520
Victoria 855 285 320 450 640 3,855 2,895 2,800 1,425 14,780 - 565 23,745 485
Abbotsford - Mission 515 515 110 275 265 1,465 1,300 1,525 1,635 15,190 850 - 15,490 90
Rest of British Columbia 2,125 1,925 950 1,705 5,720 19,185 17,265 33,980 18,660 50,270 26,175 9,830 - 2,570
Territories 630 640 155 535 570 1,435 2,915 3,490 190 1,160 585 160 3,410 -

Fertility

A key determinant of population growth, fertility—along with mortality—also plays a key role in the evolution of the population’s age structure. For this projection exercise, three assumptions on the average number of children per woman were selected. These assumptions, which reflect the ones used in the publication Population Projections for Canada (2013 to 2063), Provinces and Territories (2013 to 2038) (Statistics Canada 2014a),Note 25 highlight the uncertainty behind the future trends of this component. These three assumptions are based on a target for the average number of children per woman (total fertility rate, or TFR) being reached in 2021. Under the low assumption, the TFR of 1.61 children per woman estimated in 2011 progressively decreases to 1.53 children per woman in 2021. The medium and high assumptions involve the progressive attainment of a TFR of 1.67 and 1.88 children per woman, respectively, in 2021. Fertility rates by age are adjusted proportionally over time to reach the target annual TFR.Note 26

Only one assumption was retained with regard to differential fertility based on various characteristics (visible minority group, religion, birthplace, time elapsed since immigration, etc.) of women of child-bearing age: that fertility differences between the projected groups, as estimated in 2010/2011, are maintained. The decision to use only one assumption was based on an analysis of past trends that reveals that fertility differences between the groups are exceptionally persistent over time (Morency and Caron-Malenfant 2014). It is noteworthy that people in relationships, recent immigrants and people of Muslim and Jewish faith are more likely to give birth to a child than people who are not in a relationship, members of the Chinese, Japanese or Korean visible minority groups, and Orthodox Christians and unaffiliated people (Bélanger and Gilbert 2003; Caron-Malenfant and Bélanger 2006).

Assigning ethnocultural characteristics to newborns

Increases in specific population subgroups depend not only on the fertility of the women who belong to the groups, but also on the “transmission” of characteristics to children, since newborns do not necessarily have the same characteristics as their mother.Note 27 This is particularly true for visible minority group, religion and language variables, for which the probability of transmission is the subject of a separate assumption in each case.Note 28

Assigning each of these characteristics to newborns is based on assumptions that are similar in every case. Visible minority group, religion, mother tongue and language spoken most often at homeNote 29 are assigned by supposing that transmission patterns are identical to those estimated for the youngest children and their mother in the 2011 NHS.

The decision to use only one assumption to assign each of these characteristics was based on an analysis of recent trends between the 2001 and 2006 censuses and the 2011 NHS (for religion, only the 2001 Census and the 2011 NHS), which shows a high level of stability in the transmission rates of visible minority group, religion, mother tongue and language spoken most often at home.Note 30 For example, Figure 3 presents the proportion of children under the age of one with the same visible minority group as their mother for three different periods.

Image 3 for Population Projections for Canada and its Regions

Description for Figure 3
Data table for figure 3
Proportion of children under the age of one belonging to the same visible minority group as their mother, Canada, 2001, 2006 and 2011
Table summary
This table displays the results of Proportion of children under the age of one belonging to the same visible minority group as their mother. The information is grouped by Visible minority group (appearing as row headers), 2001, 2006 and 2011, calculated using percent units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Visible minority group 2001 2006 2011
percent
Chinese 95 93 93
South Asian 95 95 95
Black 93 93 95
Arab 92 90 91
West Asian 87 86 88
Southeast Asian 86 83 79
Korean 86 84 86
Filipino 83 83 86
Japanese 68 74 74
Latin American 57 59 62

Mortality

As with fertility, three assumptions were selected for mortality rates by age and sex at the national level. These rates by age and sex change in the same way as those used in Population Projections for Canada (2013 to 2063), Provinces and Territories (2013 to 2038) (Statistics Canada 2014a).Note 31 These assumptions reflect major increases in life expectancy from 1981 to 2010 (Martel 2013; Greenberg and Normandin 2011), but also the uncertainty associated with its growth rate in the future.

In the low assumption, the life expectancy at birth of 79.2 years for men and 83.5 years for women that were seen in 2011 would rise to 83.5 yearsNote 32 for men and 86.1 years for women in 2036 under the low growth scenario.Note 33 In the medium assumption, they would be 84.6 years for men and 87.2 years for women in 2036 in the reference scenario, and finally, 86.2 years for men and 89.0 years for women in the high assumption in the high growth scenario.

Only one assumption was selected to take into account differential mortality between the various groups that make up the population. Using data from the Canadian census mortality follow-up study, 1991 through 2006, it assumes, among other things, that the mortality of immigrants—and of recent immigrants in particular—is lower than for people born in Canada (Figure 4), and that this difference tends to decrease with the years since immigration. These results are consistent with those observed in the literature (Vang et al. 2015; Omariba et al. 2014; Trovato and Odynak 2011). It is also assumed that mortality is lower for both men and women among the most highly educated (Tjepkema et al. 2012) and members of a visible minority group. In this assumption, differential mortality would remain unchanged throughout the projected period.

Image 4 for Population Projections for Canada and its Regions

Description for Figure 4
Data table for figure 4
Life expectancy at birth by immigrant status and sex, reference scenario, Canada, 2011 (estimated) to 2036 (projected)
Table summary
This table displays the results of Life expectancy at birth by immigrant status and sex. The information is grouped by Year (appearing as row headers), Non-immigrant, Immigrant, Total, Males and Females, calculated using in years units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Year Non-immigrant Immigrant
Total Males Females Total Males Females
in years
2011 80.9 78.5 83.1 83.3 81.5 85.0
2012 81.1 78.8 83.3 83.5 81.6 85.1
2013 81.3 79.0 83.4 83.6 82.0 85.1
2014 81.5 79.3 83.6 84.0 82.2 85.5
2015 81.6 79.4 83.7 83.5 82.0 84.9
2016 81.8 79.7 83.9 84.3 82.7 85.8
2017 82.0 79.8 84.1 84.3 82.7 85.8
2018 82.3 80.3 84.2 84.3 82.7 85.8
2019 82.4 80.4 84.3 84.6 83.2 85.9
2020 82.6 80.6 84.5 84.8 83.3 86.2
2021 82.8 80.8 84.6 84.8 83.3 86.3
2022 83.0 81.1 84.8 85.1 83.7 86.4
2023 83.2 81.3 85.0 85.1 83.5 86.6
2024 83.3 81.4 85.2 85.6 84.1 86.9
2025 83.5 81.7 85.3 85.8 84.3 87.1
2026 83.7 82.0 85.4 86.0 84.8 87.0
2027 83.8 82.1 85.5 86.0 84.8 87.1
2028 84.0 82.3 85.7 86.2 85.0 87.3
2029 84.2 82.6 85.8 86.4 85.1 87.5
2030 84.3 82.7 85.9 86.5 85.1 87.7
2031 84.5 82.9 86.0 86.5 85.3 87.7
2032 84.7 83.1 86.2 86.7 85.4 87.8
2033 84.8 83.3 86.3 86.9 85.6 88.1
2034 85.0 83.5 86.4 87.1 86.0 88.2
2035 85.1 83.7 86.5 87.2 86.2 88.1
2036 85.3 83.8 86.7 87.2 86.2 88.1

Intragenerational language changesNote 34

It has been observed over time that some people change their language spoken most often at home and that the resulting intragenerational language changes affect the relative size of the country’s language groups. To take into account these language changes during a person’s lifetime, one assumption was selected for changes in the language spoken most often at home.

The assumption retained is based on the data from the micromatched file of the 2001 and 2006 censuses. It supposes that changes can occur up to 50 years of age. The probabilities of changing the language spoken most often at home are measured separately by mother tongue and the language spoken most often in the original home, place of residence (Quebec or outside Quebec) and immigrant status (immigrant or non-immigrant). These characteristics are critical in the change models. Analyses have shown that the people most likely to see a change in their language spoken most often at home are immigrants who arrived at a young age and second-generation persons whose mother tongue is neither English nor French. Corbeil and Houle (2014) have shown that, among immigrants in Quebec, transfers of the language spoken most often at home generally take place within the first five years following their arrival in Canada, while for second-generation persons, transfers generally occur before the age of 10. In Canada outside Quebec, most transfers of the language spoken most often at home are toward English, but in Quebec, these transfers are toward French and, to a lesser extent, English (Corbeil and Houle 2014; Sabourin and Bélanger 2015).Note 35

Intragenerational religious mobility

In recent decades, a substantial portion of the changes in the size of some religious groups, particularly Catholic, certain Protestant groups and unaffiliated, has not been attributable to the factors of population growth, i.e., fertility, mortality and migration. In fact, these changes appear to be tied to changes in religion that could occur during an individual’s lifetime; in other words, intragenerational religious mobilityNote 36 (Caron-Malenfant et al. forthcoming; Statistics Canada 2010).

An analysis using the residual method applied to censuses and the NHS revealed that levels of intragenerational religious mobility for certain religions were not constant over time (Caron-Malenfant et al. forthcoming), and as a result, future trends for this component were highly uncertain. For this reason, two assumptions were selected. The first involves maintaining the trends in intragenerational religious mobility estimated between the 2001 Census and the 2011 NHS throughout the projection. These trends were particularly unfavourable to the growth of the Catholic and Protestant groups, but particularly favourable to the growth of the “other Christian” group (other than Catholic, Protestant and Orthodox Christian) and people who are unaffiliated. The second assumption consists of maintaining the trends observed between the 1991 and 2001 censuses, which are less unfavourable to the growth of the Catholic and Protestant populations and thus less favourable to the “other Christian” group and unaffiliated people.

Other assumptions

Other assumptions that relate to specific components in the background of the projection model (level of education, marital status) or that are more specifically related to the Aboriginal populations (ethnic mobility of Aboriginal people) were also used for this projection exercise. The assumptions for the Aboriginal populations are the same as the ones used for the constant fertility scenario in Projections of the Aboriginal Population and Households, 2011 to 2036 (Statistics Canada 2015). The assumptions relating to level of education and marital status are also identical to the ones used in the Aboriginal projections (Statistics Canada 2015).

These assumptions are as follows:

  • A gradual levelling-off of the upward trend in education of the population and maintenance of the differences between the projected groups;
  • A gradual slowdown of the upward trend in the probability of not being in a union and, among people in a union, the upward trend in the probability of living common-law;
  • Maintenance of the fertility differences between the Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal populations until 2036;
  • Maintenance of the differences in life expectancy between the Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal populations until 2036;
  • Nil international migration for the Aboriginal population;
  • Maintenance of the intergenerational transmission rates for the Aboriginal group, estimated in 2011, until 2036;
  • Maintenance of the intragenerational ethnic mobility rates of Aboriginal people, estimated from 1996 to 2011, until 2036.

Scenarios

This section shows how the assumptions relating to each component were combined to create the scenarios used for this projection exercise. Although many scenarios can be constructed, only 12 were used. Of that number, seven are analyzed in this report. The other five are only used to provide data users with an assessment of the sensitivity of the results to certain factors aside from those explicitly considered in the analysis.

Scenarios analyzed in this report

The seven scenarios analyzed in this report were chosen on the basis of their plausibility and relevance to the purpose of the analysis: to assess the influence of various characteristics of immigration on the future ethnocultural diversity of Canada’s population. Below is a description of each scenario analyzed in the report (Table 2).Note 37

The reference scenario combines the following: a medium immigration level of 8.3 immigrants per 1,000 population, a provincial or territorial distribution of new immigrants upon arrival representative of the distribution estimated between July 2010 and June 2015, medium emigration, a progressive decrease in the net change in the number of non-permanent residents to 0 by 2021, a medium fertility rate of 1.67 children per woman, medium growth in life expectancy, internal migration patterns representative of the average estimated during the 1996-to-2001, 2001-to-2006 and 2006-to-2011 periods and, finally, net intragenerational religious mobility based on the period from 2001 to 2011.

The reference scenario is designated as such not because of its better predictive capacity (see the “Cautionary note” section), but because it is a central scenario on which the other scenarios were constructed. The six other scenarios in the analysis differ from the reference scenario by only one component: immigration level (scenarios 2 and 3), geographic distribution of immigrants in Canada at the time of arrival (scenarios 4 and 5), geographic origin of immigrants (scenario 6) and intragenerational religious mobility (scenario 7). This last scenario is slightly apart from the others since it is not designed to assess the sensitivity of ethnocultural diversity to a characteristic of immigration. It was included here because projection results for religion will be presented in the analysis, and because failing to take into account the sensitivity of the results to intragenerational religious mobility would overlook the high level of uncertainty associated with this component.

Other scenarios

The main purpose of the scenarios presented above is to produce plausible variations in the components that affect the future composition of Canada’s population. However, aside from the ones that propose different immigration levels (low and high immigration), these scenarios can provide only a fairly limited range of results with regard to the size and future geographic distribution of the population. Therefore, it is also important to produce variations with regard to the components of population growth (fertility, mortality and, at the regional level, internal migration). That is precisely the rationale behind the following five scenarios presented in Table 3Note 38. The results of these five additional scenarios are presented in the appendix.

Two scenarios (8 and 9)Note 39 differ from the reference scenario for all demographic components (immigration, emigration, net change in the number of non-permanent residents, fertility and mortality) in order to provide a maximum range of the future trends in population size. The other three scenarios (10, 11 and 12) differ from the reference scenario only insofar as they assume that net interregional migration contributes to population growth in different regions to reflect different historical periods. The last three scenarios are meant to highlight the sensitivity of the results to different levels of internal migration on the future geographic distribution of the regions’ populations.

Cautionary note

Readers are reminded that this projection exercise comprises two objectives: 1) to assess the future sensitivity of the composition of Canada’s population, using various indicators of ethnocultural diversity, to certain aspects relating mainly to immigration, and 2) to provide a plausible range of the possible growth of Canada’s population and its regions.

The “Analysis of results” section addresses the first objective, and seven scenarios have been selected to that end. Sometimes the results of the five additional scenarios—which are only presented in the appendix and seek to achieve the second objective—are outside the range of the seven scenarios analyzed. In the vast majority of the cases, there is virtually no impact on the range of results and the broad conclusions still apply.

Moreover, the choice of assumptions and scenarios is not intended to predict the future, but rather to provide data users with a portrait of the Canadian population if certain conditions were met. Because it is impossible to know the future, several scenarios were developed to identify a broad range of plausible possibilities in light of the data and past trends, among others. For this reason, users of these projections are encouraged to consider the entire range of results rather than to look for a more likely scenario.

As with any prospective exercise, these projections have certain limitations with regard to, for example, data sources, adjustments to the base population and the methods chosen. These limitations are documented in greater detail in Demosim: An Overview of Methods and Data Sources, Demosim 2017 (Statistics Canada 2017a).

Other sources of uncertainty, including those relating to the variance associated with certain projection parameters as well as the albeit low variability associated with the random processes inherent to microsimulation, could affect the projection results. For these reasons, and to avoid giving the impression of too high an accuracy level, the results presented below have been rounded to the nearest thousand.

Lastly, for the purposes of consistency with other Statistics Canada products, the concepts used in this report are based on those used in the 2011 National Household Survey. They therefore reflect the most recent changes in the choice of definitions.

Analysis of results

The analysis in this section is intended to assess the sensitivity of the evolution, up to 2036, of certain ethnocultural diversity indicators (related to immigrant’s birthplace, generation status, languages, visible minority status and religion) in Canada to various aspects of immigration. The analysis is in two parts. First, an overall portrait is proposed. Second, a similar analysis is presented in the form of brief provincial/regional portraits as well as Montréal, Toronto and Vancouver.

International migratory increase would be the main source of increase of Canada’s population over the next 25 years

For most of the 20th century, Canada’s population growth was based primarily on natural increase. However, from the late 1990s (Figure 5), international migratory increase became the main source of the growth of the country’s population, largely owing to a sustained immigration, a progressive increase in the number of deaths and relatively low fertility during this period. This change in the situation highlights the significance of immigration (the main source of migratory increase) in the rise of the Canadian population in the recent period. Between 2000 and 2011, 65% of the total increase came from net international migration.

Image 5 for Population Projections for Canada and its Regions

Description for Figure 5
Data table for figure 5
International migratory increase and natural increase, Canada, 1972 to 2011 (estimated) and 2012 to 2036 (projected according to three scenarios)
Table summary
This table displays the results of International migratory increase and natural increase. The information is grouped by Year (appearing as row headers), Natural increase, International migratory increase, Estimated, Projected, low-immigration scenario, Reference scenario and High immigration scenario, calculated using thousands units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Year Natural increase International migratory increase
Estimated Projected Estimated Projected
low-immigration scenario Reference scenario High immigration scenario low-immigration scenario Reference scenario High immigration scenario
thousands
1972 185 - - - 99 - - -
1973 179 - - - 151 - - -
1974 184 - - - 174 - - -
1975 192 - - - 162 - - -
1976 193 - - - 118 - - -
1977 194 - - - 84 - - -
1978 191 - - - 52 - - -
1979 198 - - - 96 - - -
1980 199 - - - 141 - - -
1981 200 - - - 134 - - -
1982 199 - - - 87 - - -
1983 199 - - - 62 - - -
1984 201 - - - 59 - - -
1985 194 - - - 68 - - -
1986 189 - - - 116 - - -
1987 185 - - - 164 - - -
1988 187 - - - 246 - - -
1989 202 - - - 232 - - -
1990 214 - - - 180 - - -
1991 207 - - - 135 - - -
1992 202 - - - 174 - - -
1993 183 - - - 143 - - -
1994 178 - - - 152 - - -
1995 167 - - - 162 - - -
1996 153 - - - 167 - - -
1997 133 - - - 154 - - -
1998 124 - - - 117 - - -
1999 118 - - - 158 - - -
2000 110 - - - 199 - - -
2001 114 - - - 242 - - -
2002 105 - - - 213 - - -
2003 109 - - - 195 - - -
2004 110 - - - 198 - - -
2005 112 - - - 216 - - -
2006 127 - - - 220 - - -
2007 133 - - - 235 - - -
2008 139 - - - 273 - - -
2009 142 - - - 272 - - -
2010 137 - - - 255 - - -
2011 136 - - - 250 - - -
2012 - 134 134 134 - 251 252 251
2013 - 136 136 135 - 245 245 245
2014 - 135 135 136 - 201 201 201
2015 - 134 135 135 - 229 229 229
2016 - 136 136 136 - 247 264 272
2017 - 137 137 137 - 206 244 262
2018 - 139 141 141 - 205 255 279
2019 - 139 142 143 - 187 255 288
2020 - 137 142 145 - 168 253 297
2021 - 135 142 146 - 151 253 305
2022 - 131 141 146 - 134 253 317
2023 - 123 136 143 - 128 257 325
2024 - 119 136 144 - 128 258 328
2025 - 111 130 140 - 130 262 332
2026 - 102 124 135 - 131 264 336
2027 - 92 117 130 - 132 268 340
2028 - 85 112 126 - 134 270 344
2029 - 75 105 120 - 135 272 346
2030 - 66 97 115 - 136 275 350
2031 - 57 91 109 - 139 277 355
2032 - 47 84 103 - 139 281 359
2033 - 39 77 98 - 139 281 361
2034 - 31 70 92 - 142 286 367
2035 - 24 65 87 - 143 289 369
2035 - 18 61 85 - 144 291 372

According to the results of the different projection scenarios, international migratory increase would continue to be the main growth component of Canada’s population until 2036, even in the low-immigration scenario. It is projected that on average, between 62% (low-immigration scenario) and 71% (high-immigration scenario) of the total increase between 2012 and 2036 would stem from migratory increase. In 2036, in all the scenarios used, over 80% of the increase in Canada’s population would be due to migratory increase, of which immigration would be the main component. Sustained immigration, an increase in the number of deaths projected and continued low fertility throughout the projection would explain these results.

The proportion of immigrants in Canada’s population would continue to increase up to 2036

In light of the foregoing, it is not surprising that Canada is one of the developed countries with the highest proportions of foreign-born individuals in its population. In 2011, this proportion was over one in five people (20.9%),Note 40 higher than in the United States (13.0%), the United Kingdom (11.7%) and the majority of OECD countries.Note 41

Since Confederation in 1867, Canada’s population has always comprised a large proportion of immigrants (Figure 6) (Box 2) on account of the successive waves of immigrants who played an important role in the country’s history. Data from Canadian censuses since 1871 show that this proportion has never fallen below 13.0% (in 1901) and it even reached 22.3% in 1921. Although the proportion of immigrants remained fairly stable between 1951 and 1991 (between 14.7% and 16.1%), it has risen rapidly since then to reach 20.7% in 2011.

Image 6 for Population Projections for Canada and its Regions

Description for Figure 6
Data table for figure 6
Proportion of immigrants, Canada, 1871 to 2011 (estimated) and 2016 to 2036 (projected in three scenarios)
Table summary
This table displays the results of Proportion of immigrants. The information is grouped by Year (appearing as row headers), Estimated, Projected, Reference, low-immigration and High immigration, calculated using percent units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Year Estimated Projected
Reference low-immigration High immigration
percent
1871 16.5 - - -
1876 15.2 - - -
1881 13.9 - - -
1886 13.6 - - -
1891 13.3 - - -
1896 13.2 - - -
1901 13.0 - - -
1906 17.5 - - -
1911 22.0 - - -
1916 22.1 - - -
1921 22.3 - - -
1926 22.2 - - -
1931 22.2 - - -
1936 19.9 - - -
1941 17.5 - - -
1946 16.1 - - -
1951 14.7 - - -
1956 15.1 - - -
1961 15.6 - - -
1966 15.4 - - -
1971 15.3 - - -
1976 15.6 - - -
1981 16.0 - - -
1986 16.0 - - -
1991 16.1 - - -
1996 17.4 - - -
2001 18.4 - - -
2006 19.8 - - -
2011 20.6 - - -
2016 - 22.1 22.1 22.1
2021 - 23.7 23.1 24.0
2026 - 25.2 23.5 26.1
2031 - 26.7 24.0 28.1
2036 - 28.2 24.5 30.0

The results of all the projection scenarios show that this proportion would continue to increase over the next 25 years to between 24.5% in the low-immigration scenario and 30.0% in the high-immigration scenario, proportions above the record observed in 1921. In numbers, this would represent between 10.0 million and 13.6 million immigrants (all immigration periods combined) in 2036, a strong increase compared with the number estimated in 2011 (7.1 million).

Start of Text Box

Box 2. Definitions: immigrant population and generation status

Immigrant population

People who hold or once held landed immigrant status in Canada. This population does not include non‑permanent residents and Canadians born abroad (who are considered to be Canadians at birth or non-immigrants).

Generation status

Refers to the rank of the respondent’s generation since the settlement of his or her family (or direct ascendants) in Canada. In this report, generation status is defined on the basis of immigrant status rather than birthplace, as is usually done at Statistics Canada (for more information, see Statistics Canada 2013b). Immigrants are the first generation—this report will always refer to immigrant population rather than first-generation population. Non-immigrants with at least one parent born abroad are the second generation. In this document, they will be referred to as the second generation. Subsequent generations (third or more) consist of non‑immigrants with both parents born in Canada. They will be referred to as the third generation or higher. According to this definition, non-permanent residents are not included in the first generation since they are not immigrants. A separate category has been created for them.

End of Text Box

Immigrants would continue to be concentrated in Montréal, Toronto and Vancouver

The immigrant population living in Canada is not distributed evenly among the country’s different regions. One of its characteristics is its strong concentration in census metropolitan areas (CMAs), and in Montréal, Toronto and Vancouver in particular. In 2011, 90.9% of the immigrant population was living in a CMA, and close to two in three immigrants (63.2%) resided in either Montréal (12.4%), Toronto (37.4%) or Vancouver (13.4%) (Figure 7). In comparison, 69.1% of Canada’s entire population was living in a CMA in 2011, and just over one in three people (35.0%) were living in one of the country’s three largest metropolitan areas.

Image 7 for Population Projections for Canada and its Regions

Description for Figure 7
Data table for figure 7
Geographic distribution of the immigrant population by region, Canada, 2011 (estimated) and 2036 (projected according to six scenarios)
Table summary
This table displays the results of Geographic distribution of the immigrant population by region. The information is grouped by Region (appearing as row headers), Estimated, Projected - Reference scenario, Difference between the maximum and the reference scenario and Difference between the minimum and the reference scenario, calculated using percent units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Region Estimated Projected - Reference scenario Difference between the maximum and the reference scenario Difference between the minimum and the reference scenario
percent
St-John's 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Rest of Newfoundland and Labrador 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Prince Edward Island 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1
Halifax 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.1
Rest of Nova Scotia 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Moncton 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Saint John 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Rest of New Brunswick 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.1
Saguenay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Québec 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0
Sherbrooke 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Trois-Rivières 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Montréal 12.4 13.9 0.7 0.0
Ottawa - Gatineau (Quebec part) 0.4 0.7 0.0 0.0
Rest of Quebec 0.7 0.6 0.0 0.0
Ottawa - Gatineau (Ontario part) 3.0 2.8 0.4 0.1
Kingston 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Peterborough 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Oshawa 0.8 0.7 0.1 0.0
Toronto 37.4 33.9 5.2 0.2
Hamilton 2.5 1.9 0.2 0.0
St. Catharines - Niagara 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0
Kitchener - Cambridge - Waterloo 1.6 1.5 0.2 0.0
Brantford 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Guelph 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
London 1.3 0.9 0.1 0.0
Windsor 1.0 0.8 0.1 0.0
Barrie 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
Greater Sudbury 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Thunder Bay 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Rest of Ontario 3.0 1.6 0.2 0.1
Winnipeg 2.2 3.4 0.1 1.2
Rest of Manitoba 0.6 0.8 0.2 0.3
Regina 0.3 0.8 0.0 0.4
Saskatoon 0.4 0.9 0.0 0.5
Rest of Saskatchewan 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.3
Calgary 4.7 7.3 0.1 1.8
Edmonton 3.5 5.2 0.1 1.3
Rest of Alberta 1.5 2.0 0.0 0.6
Kelowna 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
Vancouver 13.4 12.4 0.7 0.1
Victoria 0.9 0.7 0.0 0.0
Abbotsford - Mission 0.6 0.5 0.0 0.0
Rest of British Columbia 2.3 1.4 0.1 0.0
Territories 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0

In all the projection scenarios, the geographic distribution of immigrants among the various regions in 2036 would be similar to the 2011 estimate. The vast majority (between 91.7% and 93.4%) would continue to live in a CMA, and Montréal (between 13.9% and 14.6%), Toronto (between 33.6% and 39.1%) and Vancouver (between 12.4% and 13.1%) would remain the three major regions of residence of immigrants. In comparison, approximately one in four people in Canada would live outside a metropolitan area in 2036 based on all the scenarios, while roughly 40% of the population would reside in one of the country’s three major CMAs.

At the provincial and territorial level, the immigrant population was overrepresented in 2011 in Ontario (53.3% of all immigrants in Canada were living there, compared with 38.6% of the country’s population) and British Columbia (17.5% compared with 13.1%). In every other province, particularly Quebec and the Atlantic provinces, the immigrant population was underrepresented in relation to the demographic weight of these provinces in Canada as a whole.

At the end of the projection period, the immigrant population would still be overrepresented in Ontario and British Columbia. As in 2011, Ontario would still have the highest proportion of immigrants residing in Canada (between 45.4% and 52.4%), followed by Quebec (between 16.0% and 16.8%) and British Columbia (between 15.3% and 16.2%).

The proportion of immigrants would increase in almost all parts of Canada

In 2011, immigrants’ weight in the population varied somewhat from one region to the next. In general, the proportion of immigrants in the Atlantic regions and Quebec (aside from Montréal) and in non-CMAs across the country was far below the Canadian average (20.7%) (Figure 8). At the other end of the spectrum, the proportion of immigrants in 2011 was highest in Toronto (46.0%), Vancouver (40.0%), Calgary (26.2%), Hamilton (23.6%) and Abbotsford – Mission (23.5%).

Image 8 for Population Projections for Canada and its Regions

Description for Figure 8
Data table for figure 8
Proportion of immigrants by region, Canada, 2011 (estimated) and 2036 (projected according to six scenarios)
Table summary
This table displays the results of Proportion of immigrants by region. The information is grouped by Region (appearing as row headers), Estimated, Projected - Reference scenario, Difference between the maximum and the reference scenario and Difference between the minimum and the reference scenario, calculated using percent units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Region Estimated Projected - Reference scenario Difference between the maximum and the reference scenario Difference between the minimum and the reference scenario
percent
Canada 20.7 28.2 1.8 3.7
St-John's 3.1 6.6 0.9 1.6
Rest of Newfoundland and Labrador 1 1.8 0.3 0.4
Prince Edward Island 5.1 17.3 2.1 9.4
Halifax 8.2 15.2 1.6 3
Rest of Nova Scotia 3.3 4.5 0.4 0.8
Moncton 4.4 9.4 1.2 4
Saint John 4.3 10.8 1.3 3.7
Rest of New Brunswick 3.6 7.8 1 2.6
Saguenay 1.1 2.9 0.4 0.8
Québec 4.4 7.9 0.9 1.6
Sherbrooke 6.2 10.5 1.2 2.1
Trois-Rivières 2.8 5.2 0.7 1.2
Montréal 22.7 32.2 2.1 3.8
Ottawa - Gatineau (Quebec part) 10 19 1.6 2.8
Rest of Quebec 1.9 3.2 0.3 0.5
Ottawa - Gatineau (Ontario part) 22.7 28.2 2.6 3.8
Kingston 11.8 12 0.9 1.6
Peterborough 8.3 7.4 0.4 0.7
Oshawa 16.1 17.4 1.2 1.5
Toronto 46 50 2.8 4.1
Hamilton 23.6 26.5 2.2 3.1
St. Catharines - Niagara 16.9 17 1.6 2
Kitchener - Cambridge - Waterloo 23.3 29 2.3 3.6
Brantford 11.4 9.8 0.5 0.8
Guelph 19.7 22.3 1.6 2.5
London 18.8 21.1 1.9 2.8
Windsor 22.4 27.7 2.1 3.3
Barrie 12.2 12.9 1.1 1.3
Greater Sudbury 6.3 4.9 0.5 0.7
Thunder Bay 9.3 7.5 0.5 1
Rest of Ontario 8 7 0.5 0.7
Winnipeg 20.7 37.9 2.6 8.7
Rest of Manitoba 8.2 15.8 3 4.7
Regina 10.5 32.6 3 13.6
Saskatoon 10.7 29 2.7 12.3
Rest of Saskatchewan 3.7 11.5 1.8 5.8
Calgary 26.2 38.6 2.2 5.9
Edmonton 20.5 31.7 2.1 5.6
Rest of Alberta 8 13.5 1.3 3.4
Kelowna 13.8 16.8 1 2.1
Vancouver 40 46.5 1.9 4.4
Victoria 17.9 19.9 1.1 2.4
Abbotsford - Mission 23.5 30.1 1.6 3.4
Rest of British Columbia 11.4 11.7 0.8 1.4
Territories 6.8 11.7 1.1 3.3

Between 2011 and 2036, the proportion of immigrants in the population of most regions would increase according to all the projection scenarios. As in 2011, the proportion of immigrants in the Atlantic regions, Quebec (outside Montréal) and in non-CMA regions would be lower than the Canadian average in 2036. However, in all these areas, except for the rest of Ontario (in all scenarios) and the rest of British Columbia (in one scenario), the proportion of immigrants would be higher than the estimated proportion in 2011.

At the end of the projection period, the five CMAs with the highest proportions of immigrants in their populations would be Toronto (between 46.0% and 52.8%), Vancouver (between 42.1% and 48.5%), Calgary (between 32.7% and 40.8%), Montréal (between 28.4% and 34.2%) and Winnipeg (between 29.2% and 40.5%). For all these regions, with the exception of Toronto in the low-immigration scenario (in which it would remain stable), the proportion of immigrants in the population would increase in 25 years.

According to the projection results, many areas could see their proportion of immigrants increase or decrease, depending on the scenario considered: Kingston, Oshawa, Hamilton, St. Catharines – Niagara, London, Barrie, Greater Sudbury, Victoria and the rest of British Colombia.

The proportion of immigrants in the populations of Regina and Saskatoon would especially be influenced by where immigrants settle upon their arrival in Canada. It could either increase very slightly if the geographic distribution of immigrants during the projection were similar to the estimate between 2000 and 2005, or almost triple if it were similar to the estimate between 2010 and 2015.

According to all the scenarios, the proportion of immigrants in Winnipeg’s population would increase particularly rapidly between 2011 (20.7%) and 2036 (between 29.2% and 40.5%). This proportion would increase more slowly if the geographic distribution of immigrants upon arrival in Canada were similar to the estimate between 2000 and 2005, and much more quickly if it were similar to the estimate between 2010 and 2015.

In all scenarios, the proportion of immigrants would be lower in Brantford, Peterborough, Greater Sudbury, Thunder Bay and the rest of Ontario by 2036.

Comparisons with the reference scenario reveal that the scenarios with an alternative geographic distribution of immigrants between the provinces and territories—as opposed to scenarios with a different total number of immigrants at the national level—have the greatest effect on the projected proportion of immigrants in Prince Edward Island, New Brunswick, the Prairie provinces and the territories, although differences may also exist at the regional level.

The immigrant population would continue to grow in absolute number in all provinces and territories according to all scenarios, but the rate of increase would slow down (for the Atlantic provinces, the Prairie provinces and the territories) or accelerate (Ontario) substantially if the geographic distribution of immigrants upon their arrival in Canada was similar to what was observed in the early 2000s. For British Columbia, the immigration level in Canada would actually be the factor with the greatest impact on how quickly the number of immigrants would increase, rather than where immigrants settle upon arrival. In Quebec, it would be more the share of immigrants that the province would receive out of the Canadian total than the volume of immigrants admitted to Canada that would have the greatest influence on the speed of growth of the number of immigrants.

The evolving composition of the immigrant population by continent of birth

As noted earlier, the portrait of the immigrant population has changed a great deal over the past 25 years, mostly because of differences in the geographic origin of immigrants. In 1986, 62.2% of immigrants living in Canada were born in Europe and only 18.4% were born in Asia. In 2011, the portrait was very different, with people born in Asia (Chinese, Indian and Filipino being the three main groups) accounting for most of the immigrants living in Canada (44.8%), while immigrants born in Europe represented no more than 31.6% of the total (Figure 9). Furthermore, the proportion of immigrants from Africa also rose between 1986 and 2011 (from 2.3% to 7.2%).

Image 9 for Population Projections for Canada and its Regions

Description for Figure 9
Data table for figure 9
Distribution (in percent) of immigrants living in Canada by region of birth, 2011 (estimated) and 2036 (projected according to six scenarios)
Table summary
This table displays the results of Distribution (in percent) of immigrants living in Canada by region of birth. The information is grouped by Region of birth (appearing as row headers), Estimated, Projected, Minimum in 2036 and Maximum in 2036, calculated using percent units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Region of birth Estimated Projected
Minimum in 2036 Maximum in 2036
percent
North America 3.9 2.9 3.2
Central America 2.2 2.3 2.5
Caribbean and Bermuda 5.2 4.1 4.9
South America 4.3 4.3 4.8
Western Europe 5.9 3.2 3.6
Eastern Europe 7.5 5.2 6.4
Northern Europe 9.0 4.0 4.5
Southern Europe 9.2 3.0 3.7
Western Africa 1.1 2.1 2.5
Eastern Africa 2.3 2.6 3.1
Northern Africa 2.7 4.4 4.6
Central Africa 0.5 1.0 1.1
Southern Africa 0.6 0.6 0.6
West Central Asia and the Middle East 6.7 9.5 11.0
Eastern Asia 14.2 14.0 15.0
Southeast Asia 10.7 13.6 15.2
Southern Asia 13.2 17.5 18.5
Oceania and others 0.8 0.7 0.9

The results of the projections indicate that the transformations in the composition of the immigrant population by region of birth would continue over the next 25 years. In 2036, between 55.7% and 57.9% of immigrants would be born in Asia—mainly in China, India and the Philippines—while between 15.4% and 17.8% would be born in Europe. This would be a reversal of the situation observed in 1986. The proportion of immigrants from Africa would continue to increase to between 11.0% and 11.9% in 2036.

Close to one in five people would be second generation in 2036

The second-generation population, or non-immigrants with at least one parent born abroad (Box 2), also plays a role making the Canadian population a diverse one. This role was extensively analyzed in the Projections of the Diversity of the Canadian Population, 2006 to 2031 (Statistics Canada 2010). This population was close to 6 million in 2011.

Over the next 25 years, according to all the scenarios used, this population would increase to between 8.1 million (low-immigration scenario) and 8.9 million (high-immigration scenario) by 2036. It would represent nearly one in five people in 2036 in all scenarios, up from 2011 (17.5%). The increase would be strongly tied to higher demographic weight of the immigrant population.

In 2011, 55% of the second-generation population had two parents born abroad (compared with 45% with only one parent born abroad). Based on all scenarios, this proportion would increase in 2036 to between 58.8% and 62.4%. One of the underlying factors of this increase would be the replacement of older cohorts, who are more likely to have only one parent born abroad, by cohorts more likely to have two parents born abroad (Figure 10). This process which was already under way in 2011 and is associated with a likelihood to enter into exogamous unions, would continue until 2036.

Image 10 for Population Projections for Canada and its Regions

Description for Figure 10
Data table for figure 10
Age and sex structure of the second-generation population, Canada, 2011 (estimated) and 2036 (projected according to the reference scenario)

Table summary
This table displays the results of Age and sex structure of the second-generation population. The information is grouped by Age (appearing as row headers), 2011, 2036, Males, Females, Two parents born abroad and One parent born abroad, calculated using thousands units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Age 2011 2036
Males Females Males Females
Two parents born abroad One parent born abroad Two parents born abroad One parent born abroad Two parents born abroad One parent born abroad Two parents born abroad One parent born abroad
thousands
0 year 40 21 37 21 69 34 66 32
1 year 39 21 37 20 68 33 65 31
2 years 39 21 36 19 67 32 64 31
3 years 37 20 37 19 65 32 63 30
4 years 35 19 34 18 65 31 62 30
5 years 34 20 32 18 64 31 61 29
6 years 33 18 31 18 63 31 60 29
7 years 31 19 29 18 62 30 59 29
8 years 30 18 28 17 61 30 58 28
9 years 31 18 28 17 60 29 57 28
10 years 30 18 28 18 58 29 56 27
11 years 29 18 27 17 57 28 55 27
12 years 28 19 27 17 57 28 53 27
13 years 29 18 27 18 55 27 52 26
14 years 29 20 27 18 54 27 51 26
15 years 31 21 29 19 52 27 50 25
16 years 30 21 30 19 51 26 49 25
17 years 30 21 27 21 50 25 47 24
18 years 28 21 27 21 48 25 46 23
19 years 28 22 27 20 47 24 44 23
20 years 26 21 25 21 45 23 43 22
21 years 24 21 25 21 43 23 41 22
22 years 24 19 23 20 42 23 40 22
23 years 22 19 21 19 41 22 39 21
24 years 21 20 21 18 40 21 38 21
25 years 20 20 20 19 39 20 36 20
26 years 22 19 21 19 38 20 36 19
27 years 21 18 20 18 37 20 35 19
28 years 23 19 22 19 36 19 35 19
29 years 22 19 21 18 34 19 33 18
30 years 24 18 21 18 32 19 31 18
31 years 24 18 21 18 31 18 29 17
32 years 23 16 21 17 30 18 28 17
33 years 23 17 21 17 29 17 27 17
34 years 24 17 22 16 29 17 26 16
35 years 23 17 21 16 28 17 26 16
36 years 23 16 20 16 27 17 26 17
37 years 21 15 20 16 26 17 25 16
38 years 20 15 19 14 27 17 25 16
39 years 21 16 19 15 27 18 26 17
40 years 22 16 21 15 28 19 27 17
41 years 21 14 20 14 28 19 27 18
42 years 21 14 20 14 27 19 26 19
43 years 21 13 19 14 26 19 25 20
44 years 20 13 20 14 25 19 25 19
45 years 21 15 19 14 23 19 23 19
46 years 21 15 20 16 23 19 23 19
47 years 21 16 20 15 21 18 21 18
48 years 22 16 21 16 20 17 19 18
49 years 22 15 20 15 19 18 19 17
50 years 21 15 21 15 19 18 19 17
51 years 21 15 20 16 20 17 19 17
52 years 20 16 19 15 20 17 19 17
53 years 18 15 17 15 20 17 20 17
54 years 16 15 15 15 20 17 19 17
55 years 14 16 14 16 21 17 20 16
56 years 12 16 13 15 21 16 20 17
57 years 12 17 11 17 21 15 19 16
58 years 9 16 9 16 21 15 20 15
59 years 8 16 8 16 21 15 20 15
60 years 7 16 6 16 21 15 20 15
61 years 6 17 6 17 21 14 19 15
62 years 5 18 5 17 19 14 18 14
63 years 5 19 5 20 18 14 17 14
64 years 5 18 5 19 18 14 18 14
65 years 5 13 5 14 19 14 18 14
66 years 5 13 5 14 19 13 18 13
67 years 5 13 5 14 18 13 18 13
68 years 6 13 5 14 18 12 17 12
69 years 5 12 6 13 18 12 17 12
70 years 6 11 6 12 17 12 17 12
71 years 7 11 7 12 18 13 18 13
72 years 7 11 8 12 18 13 17 14
73 years 7 11 8 11 18 13 18 14
74 years 8 10 8 11 18 12 17 13
75 years 8 10 9 11 17 12 18 13
76 years 9 9 10 11 16 12 17 13
77 years 8 8 10 10 15 12 16 13
78 years 9 8 11 11 14 11 14 13
79 years 10 8 12 10 11 11 12 12
80 years 10 7 12 9 10 11 11 12
81 years 9 6 12 8 8 11 10 12
82 years 8 6 11 8 8 10 8 12
83 years 8 5 10 7 6 10 6 12
84 years 7 5 10 6 5 9 6 11
85 years 6 4 9 7 4 8 4 10
86 years 5 3 9 5 3 8 4 10
87 years 5 3 8 5 3 8 3 10
88 years 4 2 7 4 2 7 3 10
89 years 3 2 7 4 2 7 3 10
90 years 3 1 6 3 2 5 2 7
91 years 3 1 5 2 1 3 2 5
92 years 2 1 4 2 1 3 2 5
93 years 1 0 4 1 1 2 2 4
94 years 1 0 3 1 1 2 1 3
95 years 1 0 2 1 1 1 1 3
96 years 0 0 2 1 1 1 1 2
97 years 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1
98 years 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1
99 years 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
100 years 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
101 years 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
102 years 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
103 years 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
104 years 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
105 years 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
106 years 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
107 years 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
108 years 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
109 years 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
110 years and over 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

More than one in two people in Toronto, Vancouver, Calgary and Abbotsford – Mission would be an immigrant or a second-generation individual in 2036

The results of the projections show that, when combined, the immigrant and second‑generation populations could represent between 44.2% (low-immigration scenario) and 49.7% (high-immigration scenario) of the entire Canadian population in 2036, up from 2011 (38.2%).

However, the proportion that these two populations combined would represent would remain very different from one region to the next at the end of the projection period (Figure 11). More than one in two people would be either an immigrant or a second‑generation individual in 2036, based on all scenarios, in Toronto (between 77.0% and 81.4%), Vancouver (between 69.4% and 74.0%), Calgary (between 56.2% and 63.3%) and Abbotsford – Mission (between 52.5% and 57.4%), up over 2011 in all cases. However, the immigrant and second-generation populations would represent less than 1 in 10 people in Saguenay (between 5.0% and 6.4%), in non-CMA parts of Newfoundland and Labrador (between 3.8% and 4.7%) and Quebec (between 6.5% and 7.6%). Some areas, including Victoria, St. Catharines – Niagara, Thunder Bay, Brantford, Peterborough, Greater Sudbury and the non-CMA parts of Ontario and British Columbia, would see this proportion decrease over the next 25 years in all scenarios.

Image 11 for Population Projections for Canada and its Regions

Description for Figure 11
Data table for figure 11
Proportion of immigrants and second-generation people combined, Canada, 2011 (estimated) and 2036 (projected according to six scenarios)
Table summary
This table displays the results of Proportion of immigrants and second-generation people combined. The information is grouped by Region (appearing as row headers), Estimated, Projected - Reference scenario, Difference between the maximum and the reference scenario and Difference between the minimum and the reference scenario, calculated using percent units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Region Estimated Projected - Reference scenario Difference between the maximum and the reference scenario Difference between the minimum and the reference scenario
percent
Toronto 74.1 79.7 1.7 2.7
Vancouver 65.6 72.7 1.4 3.3
Abbotsford - Mission 49.7 55.9 1.4 3.4
Hamilton 48.8 51.5 1.9 2.9
Calgary 48.0 61.4 1.9 5.2
Windsor 43.9 51.7 1.9 3.3
Kitchener - Cambridge - Waterloo 43.6 52.1 2.0 3.5
Ottawa - Gatineau (Ontario part) 42.8 50.7 2.3 3.8
Victoria 42.7 40.6 1.1 2.4
Edmonton 41.2 53.1 2.1 5.2
Guelph 41.2 45.2 1.5 2.5
Winnipeg 40.5 56.5 2.4 8.0
St. Catharines - Niagara 39.7 38.1 1.4 2.1
London 39.4 41.9 1.7 2.9
Canada 38.2 47.9 1.7 3.8
Oshawa 38.1 41.4 1.1 1.8
Montréal 37.8 53.6 2.0 3.9
Kelowna 35.8 35.4 1.0 2.3
Barrie 32.1 34.3 1.1 1.7
Rest of British Columbia 31.8 28.3 0.8 1.6
Thunder Bay 30.0 24.3 0.5 1.1
Brantford 29.6 27.2 0.5 1.2
Kingston 28.2 28.7 0.9 1.8
Saskatoon 25.1 43.4 2.7 12.5
Regina 24.9 45.3 2.9 13.7
Rest of Alberta 23.9 27.4 1.4 3.6
Peterborough 23.5 22.3 0.5 1.0
Rest of Ontario 22.1 21.4 0.5 0.9
Rest of Manitoba 21.3 27.6 3.2 5.2
Ottawa - Gatineau (Quebec part) 17.6 30.9 1.8 3.2
Greater Sudbury 17.6 16.8 0.5 0.9
Halifax 17.4 26.0 1.6 3.3
Rest of Saskatchewan 17.1 20.0 1.8 6.3
Territories 15.7 20.3 1.2 3.5
Prince Edward Island 11.4 25.3 2.2 9.6
Saint John 11.2 19.1 1.3 3.6
Moncton 10.6 16.9 1.3 4.1
Sherbrooke 10.6 16.7 1.3 2.5
Rest of New Brunswick 9.3 14.4 1.0 2.7
Rest of Nova Scotia 9.3 11.2 0.4 1.0
Québec 7.5 13.5 1.1 2.0
St-John's 6.7 12.1 1.0 1.8
Trois-Rivières 5.3 9.2 0.9 1.5
Rest of Quebec 4.4 7.2 0.4 0.7
Rest of Newfoundland and Labrador 2.6 4.3 0.3 0.5
Saguenay 2.3 6.0 0.5 1.0

These results for the size of the population of immigrants and their progeny born in Canada point to rapid changes in other aspects of the composition of Canada’s population. These changes are the subject of the next section.

Immigration and ethnocultural diversity of the population: languages, visible minority groups and religions

The arrival of many individuals born abroad affects not only population growth, but also the ethnocultural and ethnolinguistic composition of that population. As we have seen, the recent immigrant population comes mainly from non-European countries, and therefore has characteristics that are different from the rest of the population.

Among immigrants who settled in Canada between 2001 and 2011, more than three-quarters had a mother tongue other than English or French, over three-quarters were also members of a visible minority group and more than one-third reported a religion other than Christian. These proportions were all much lower for the population as a whole, as Figure 12 shows.

Image 12 for Population Projections for Canada and its Regions

Description for Figure 12
Data table for figure 12
Proportion of the population with a mother tongue other than English or French, belonging to a visible minority group and with a religion other than Christian within the population of recent immigrants (2001 to 2011) and the total population, Canada, 2011
Table summary
This table displays the results of Proportion of the population with a mother tongue other than English or French. The information is grouped by Category (appearing as row headers), Recent immigrants
(2001 to 2011) and Total population, calculated using percent units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Category Recent immigrants
(2001 to 2011)
Total population
percent
Mother tongue other than English or French 77.4 20.0
Belonging to a visible minority group 77.4 18.4
Non-Christian religion 34.6 8.8

This section gives a concise presentation of the results of a projection of certain dimensions of the ethnocultural diversity of Canada’s population (Box 3) and the role of immigration in future trends in this regard.

Start of Text Box

Box 3 – Ethnocultural diversity

The notion of ethnocultural diversity in a population can have multiple meanings. Insofar as the notion of diversity is the opposite of homogeneity, in a context of analysis of a population’s composition, it can refer to the absolute number of subgroups therein as well as to the relative demographic weight of some of those subgroups. Moreover, the ethnocultural dimension of diversity can be defined based on a wide variety of criteria, from geographic origin to identification with predefined ethnic groups, cultural practices, shared sociohistorical referents and languages spoken.

In light of the objectives of this analytical report, the ethnocultural diversity of the population is defined here on the basis of certain of its aspects most likely to undergo changes as a direct or indirect result of immigration in the coming year: place of birth, languages other than English or French, visible minority status and religion. Given that the number of groups that make up the population for the purposes of these projections is predetermined using the variables available in the 2011 NHS, we will refer to the relative weight of the projected groups when discussing the diversification of the population. In addition, the limits on the number of characteristics that can be projected also place limits on the level of sophistication with which the concept of ethnocultural diversity could be operationalized. In this vein, it should be remembered that the indicators used here do not exhaust the notion of ethnocultural diversity. Moreover, although the groups selected for analytical purposes comprise people who share certain characteristics, they do not in themselves represent homogeneous entities.

End of Text Box

Languages

Immigration is a major vector of change in the language composition of the population. On account of the increase in the proportion of immigrants in the population in recent decades and because the majority of them have a mother tongue other than English or French at the time of arrival (Figure 12), we have observed an increase in the proportion of people with an other mother tongue. However, the resulting increase has been limited by the rapid integration to English and, to a lesser extent, to French of immigrants, their children and their grandchildren. Already as of the second generation, the mother tongue of only one in five people (one in three for the youngest, according to the 2011 NHS) is neither English nor French. Furthermore, adoption of the majority languages is mostly generalized by the third generation (97.9% in 2011).

In all scenarios used for these projections, the population with an other mother tongueNote 42 would see their numbers rise to between 10.7 million (low-immigration scenario) and 13.8 million (high-immigration scenario) by 2036. The members of this group would therefore represent between 26.1% and 30.6% of the Canadian population (Figure 13). By way of comparison, this proportion was 20.0% in 2011 and 15.1% 20 years earlier in 1991.

Image 13 for Population Projections for Canada and its Regions

Description for Figure 13
Data table for figure 13
Population whose mother tongue is neither English nor French as a percentage of the population, Canada, 2011 (estimated) to 2036 (projected according to three scenarios)
Table summary
This table displays the results of Population whose mother tongue is neither English nor French as a percentage of the population. The information is grouped by Year (appearing as row headers), Reference, low-immigration and High immigration, calculated using percent units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Year Reference low-immigration High immigration
percent
2011 20.0 20.0 20.0
2016 22.0 22.0 22.0
2021 23.8 23.4 24.0
2026 25.6 24.3 26.2
2031 27.4 25.2 28.4
2036 29.1 26.1 30.6

As was the case in 2011, immigrants would make up the bulk of the other-mother-tongue population in 2036, with close to 70% in all scenarios. However, almost 40% of these other-mother-tongue immigrants would have adopted English or French as the language spoken most often at home, either alone or in combination with other languages.

This language integration would occur differently in Quebec and in Canada outside Quebec (Figure 14). In Quebec, French would be the language spoken most often at home by immigrants whose mother tongue is neither English nor French and who made a language transfer to or substitution for one of the two official languages. It is projected that between 34.0% and 34.1% of immigrants whose mother tongue is neither English nor French and who settled in Quebec would speak French most often at home in 2036, versus between 11.1% and 11.9% who would have adopted English. Immigrants born in North Africa, the Caribbean and Bermuda and in South America would make up just over 50% of the transfers to French projected for Quebec.

In the rest of the country, the vast majority of other-mother-tongue immigrants who made a language transfer would have adopted English as their language spoken most often at home. Transfers to French among these immigrants would remain very low.Note 43

Image 14 for Population Projections for Canada and its Regions

Description for Figure 14
Data table for figure 14
Distribution of the immigrant population whose mother tongue is neither English nor French by language spoken most often at home, Quebec, Canada outside Quebec and Canada, 2036 (projected according to nine scenarios)
Table summary
This table displays the results of Distribution of the immigrant population whose mother tongue is neither English nor French by language spoken most often at home. The information is grouped by Region and scenario (appearing as row headers), English and French or English and French and non-official language(s), English or English and non-official language(s), French or French and non-official language(s) and Non-official language(s) only, calculated using percent units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Region and scenario English and French or English and French and non-official language(s) English or English and non-official language(s) French or French and non-official language(s) Non-official language(s) only
percent
Canada  
Reference scenario 0.1 34.5 5.7 59.7
Minimum of the nine scenarios 0 0.6 0.2 1.5
Maximum of the nine scenarios 0 1.4 0.3 0.6
Quebec  
Reference scenario 0.5 11.4 34.0 54.0
Minimum of the nine scenarios 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.6
Maximum of the nine scenarios 0.0 0.5 0.2 1.0
Canada outside Quebec  
Reference scenario 0.1 38.5 0.7 60.7
Minimum of the nine scenarios 0.0 0.7 0.1 1.6
Maximum of the nine scenarios 0.0 1.6 0.3 0.7

In the non-immigrant population, the vast majority of people with an other mother tongue would belong to the second generation (between 83.1% and 85.5% in 2036, compared with 77.3% in 2011)Note 44; in other words, at least one of their parents would have been born abroad. In all scenarios, approximately 70% of second-generation individuals would have English or French as their mother tongue, meaning that approximately 3 in 10 (between 29.0% and 30.4%) of these people would have a mother tongue other than English or French. This proportion would be up from 2011 (20.8%) given that this generation of descendants of mainly European immigrants is being progressively replaced by descendants of recent immigrants whose mother tongue is more likely to be neither English nor French. Most of this increase would take place outside Quebec. In addition, among the second-generation population with an other mother tongue, the vast majority (close to 90%) would be people whose two parents were born abroad.

Despite the linguistic integration of both the immigrant and the second-generation populations, the demolinguistic balance between English and French would be different by 2036, both in and outside Quebec. If we use the indicator of first official language spokenNote 45 (Table 4)—a concept whose definition of official language community is more inclusive than mother tongue or language spoken most often at homeNote 46—the percentage of French-speaking people in Canada is projected to decrease to between 20.2% and 20.9% of the population by 2036, compared with 22.9% in 2011. This decrease, which would occur both in Quebec (the proportion would reach between 82.0% and 83.0% in 2036 compared with 85.4% in 2011) and outside Quebec (between 3.0% and 3.6% in 2036 compared with 3.9% in 2011), would see an almost equivalent increase in the proportion of people whose first official language spoken is English, in all of the scenarios.

Some of these changes would stem from the growing share of newcomers in official language communities, combined with the fact that these immigrants predominantly adopt English. However, the demolinguistic dynamic leading to these changes comprises a number of other dimensions, such as including linguistic transitions, population aging and internal migration. Thus, immigration is obviously not the only factor at play. The results in Table 4 indicate that the demographic weight of the official language communities would hardly change compared with the reference scenario by 2036 in the event of an increase or decrease in immigration, a change in its geographic distribution or a return to an immigration involving birthplaces similar to those of the 2005-to-2010 period. Those scenarios, however, all assume a similar composition of newcomer cohorts from a language point of view.Note 47 Therefore, a change in this regard—depending on its magnitude—could affect the respective weights of the official language communities. The relationship between immigration and official language communities is analyzed in depth in the report Language Projections for Canada, 2011 to 2036 (Statistics Canada 2017b)Note 48 (Box 4).

Start of Text Box

Box 4 – For more information on language projections in Canada

Readers interested in learning more about the possible changes in language groups in the coming years are invited to read the report Language Projections for Canada, 2011 to 2036 (Statistics Canada 2017b). This report proposes several scenarios pertaining specifically to the language situation. It also looks at other aspects of the language situation (e.g., bilingualism, language transfers, etc.) as well as factors that could change its portrait by 2036. The relationship between immigration and official languages is also dealt with in greater detail.

End of Text Box

In all cases, however, we would witness a diversification of the country’s official languages communities. In the French-language community, as defined on the basis of first official language spoken, the proportion of immigrants could more than double, to between 15.4% and 19.8%, by 2036, compared with 9.2% in 2011. This increase would be due to both the rapid growth of the immigrant population itself and the fact that the non-immigrant French-speaking population would see its growth come to halt and then reverse by the 2030s, particularly as a result of population aging and the incomplete transmission of French to the subsequent generationsNote 49. The proportion of immigrants would also be higher in the population whose first official language spoken is English, which is projected to be between 25.8% and 31.4% by 2036, compared with 22.8% in 2011. In both cases, an increase in the proportion of immigrants would also see more diverse characteristics of the official language communities.

Visible minority groups

In Canada, the concept of visible minorities is used primarily for application of the Employment Equity Act. This Act, which primarily aims to combat discrimination when hiring members of designated groups, including visible minority groups, has provisions relating to the representation of visible minorities in the labour force. For the purposes of implementing this Act, population censuses since 1996 have been collecting information on self-reported visible minority group. From 1996 to 2011, the proportion of Canadians who reported belonging to a visible minority group rose from 11% to 19%, largely because of overrepresentation of this population among immigrants.

According to the projection results, the population with visible minority status could more than double by 2036 to between 12.8 million (low-immigration scenario) and 16.3 million (high-immigration scenario), compared with 6.5 million in 2011 (Table 5). This increase would be more rapid than that of the rest of the population, and as a result, the population belonging to a visible minority group would represent a growing share of the total Canadian population. Between 31% and 36% of the population would belong to a visible minority group in 2036. This proportion would vary by generation status, totalling between 74% and 77% of the immigrant population, between 50% and 52% of the second‑generation population and between 3% and 4% of the third-generation or higher population.

Readers should be reminded that the visible minority population, like the rest of the population, is not homogeneous. It is made up of a number of groups that, defined for the purposes of the Employment Equity Act, are themselves diversified in many respects, in particular with regard to the proportion of people born in Canada or abroad. Among these groups, South Asian would remain the group with the largest population in 2036, with over 3 million in all the scenarios selected, followed by Chinese, Black and Filipino. If the overrepresentation of Arab, Filipino and West Asian immigrants in relation to their demographic weight in the total population were to continue, it could triple their population in Canada. These three groups were already among the ones with the most rapid increases in the country.

According to the projection results, the composition of immigration by country of birth would have a significant impact on the relative size of specific visible minority groups in the population at the end of the projection period. The share that the Southeast Asian, Korean and Japanese visible minority groups would represent in the total population in 2036 would be highest under the alternative composition scenario of immigration by country of birth based on the period from 2005 to 2010.

While immigration is a key determinant of the changes that have just been discussed, progeny born in Canada to members of a visible minority group is also a factor. In fact, it is projected that the number of births to people who belong to a visible minority group would continue to rise in the coming years, totaling between 36.3% and 43.4% of all births in 2036. These children, many of whom would be born to the cohorts of immigrants who settled in Canada in recent decades, would contribute to the increase in the relative share of people born in Canada within the visible minority population, which would rise to between 33.3% and 38.0% by 2036, versus 30.7% in 2011. These births would also be the main reason why the proportion of visible minorities would be higher among the youngest generations, totaling between 35.7% and 41.9% among people under the age of 15 (Figures 15a and 15b).

Image 15a for Population Projections for Canada and its Regions

Description for Figure 15a
Data table for figure 15a
Age and sex structure of the population by visible minority status, Canada, 2036 (low-immigration scenario)
Table summary
This table displays the results of Age and sex structure of the population by visible minority status. The information is grouped by Age (appearing as row headers), Rest of the population: 68.8% of the population, Visible minority: 31.2% of the population, Males and Females, calculated using thousands units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Age Rest of the population: 68.8% of the population Visible minority: 31.2% of the population
Males Females Males Females
thousands
0 year 126 121 83 79
1 year 127 121 83 79
2 years 128 122 83 80
3 years 130 123 84 80
4 years 130 125 84 80
5 years 133 126 84 81
6 years 135 128 85 81
7 years 137 130 85 81
8 years 139 132 86 81
9 years 142 134 87 82
10 years 144 136 87 84
11 years 146 138 88 83
12 years 147 140 88 83
13 years 148 141 89 84
14 years 150 142 90 85
15 years 150 143 90 85
16 years 151 144 90 85
17 years 150 143 90 85
18 years 151 143 90 85
19 years 151 142 91 85
20 years 150 142 92 86
21 years 151 143 93 87
22 years 150 143 92 88
23 years 151 144 93 88
24 years 150 144 93 89
25 years 150 143 92 90
26 years 151 146 93 91
27 years 154 146 94 94
28 years 152 146 94 95
29 years 151 143 93 96
30 years 147 139 93 95
31 years 146 138 92 94
32 years 145 138 92 93
33 years 144 137 91 93
34 years 145 138 92 93
35 years 146 137 92 94
36 years 151 142 94 96
37 years 152 145 92 95
38 years 156 150 93 96
39 years 162 153 94 98
40 years 170 161 97 99
41 years 176 168 97 100
42 years 178 172 96 99
43 years 181 176 95 99
44 years 186 182 94 99
45 years 189 185 92 97
46 years 189 185 92 98
47 years 182 179 89 96
48 years 177 174 87 95
49 years 177 173 86 93
50 years 181 176 85 91
51 years 182 178 85 91
52 years 178 177 83 91
53 years 178 174 82 89
54 years 176 173 80 88
55 years 178 175 79 87
56 years 176 171 78 84
57 years 170 168 74 81
58 years 168 165 71 79
59 years 167 166 69 77
60 years 167 165 69 76
61 years 166 164 67 74
62 years 160 159 65 70
63 years 161 160 64 68
64 years 164 162 63 66
65 years 170 170 62 66
66 years 168 169 60 63
67 years 165 167 59 61
68 years 165 167 55 58
69 years 167 172 53 56
70 years 175 180 54 55
71 years 188 193 52 55
72 years 194 200 50 52
73 years 192 201 47 49
74 years 188 198 44 47
75 years 188 198 43 45
76 years 181 194 41 43
77 years 174 188 37 40
78 years 167 183 34 36
79 years 159 177 32 34
80 years 150 167 29 32
81 years 142 162 27 30
82 years 131 152 24 27
83 years 119 140 21 24
84 years 107 130 19 22
85 years 99 121 17 20
86 years 88 113 16 19
87 years 79 105 14 17
88 years 71 97 12 15
89 years 64 90 10 13
90 years 47 70 9 11
91 years 36 57 7 9
92 years 29 48 5 7
93 years 22 40 4 6
94 years 16 31 3 4
95 years 12 24 2 3
96 years 8 18 1 3
97 years 5 13 1 2
98 years 4 10 1 1
99 years 2 7 0 1
100 years 2 5 0 1
101 years 1 3 0 0
102 years 1 2 0 0
103 years 0 1 0 0
104 years 0 1 0 0
105 years 0 0 0 0
106 years 0 0 0 0
107 years 0 0 0 0
108 years 0 0 0 0
109 years 0 0 0 0
110 years and over 0 0 0 0

Image 15b for Population Projections for Canada and its Regions

Description for Figure 15b
Data table for figure 15b
Age and sex structure of the population by visible minority status, Canada, 2036 (high immigration scenario)
Table summary
This table displays the results of Age and sex structure of the population by visible minority status. The information is grouped by Âge (appearing as row headers), Rest of the population: 64.0% of the population, Visible minority: 36.0% of the population, Hommes and Femmes, calculated using milliers units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Age Rest of the population: 64.0% of the population Visible minority: 36.0% of the population
Males Females Males Females
thousands
0 year 134 127 102 98
1 year 134 128 102 98
2 years 135 129 103 99
3 years 137 130 103 100
4 years 138 131 103 100
5 years 140 133 104 99
6 years 142 135 104 99
7 years 144 136 104 99
8 years 146 138 104 99
9 years 148 140 104 99
10 years 151 142 104 100
11 years 152 144 104 99
12 years 153 145 104 98
13 years 154 146 104 99
14 years 155 147 104 99
15 years 155 148 104 98
16 years 155 148 104 98
17 years 154 147 103 98
18 years 155 146 104 98
19 years 154 146 105 99
20 years 154 146 107 101
21 years 154 146 109 104
22 years 154 147 109 106
23 years 154 148 110 106
24 years 154 148 110 109
25 years 154 147 110 111
26 years 155 151 111 114
27 years 159 151 113 118
28 years 158 151 114 122
29 years 157 149 115 125
30 years 153 145 115 126
31 years 153 145 116 128
32 years 152 145 117 128
33 years 151 145 117 129
34 years 152 145 119 130
35 years 154 145 120 132
36 years 160 151 121 134
37 years 161 153 121 133
38 years 165 158 122 135
39 years 171 162 124 136
40 years 179 170 126 138
41 years 185 176 126 138
42 years 187 180 125 135
43 years 190 184 123 134
44 years 195 189 121 132
45 years 197 192 119 130
46 years 197 192 118 129
47 years 189 186 115 127
48 years 184 180 112 123
49 years 184 179 110 119
50 years 187 182 108 116
51 years 188 183 106 114
52 years 183 181 103 112
53 years 183 178 100 108
54 years 181 177 97 106
55 years 182 179 94 103
56 years 180 174 91 99
57 years 174 171 87 96
58 years 171 168 82 92
59 years 170 168 79 89
60 years 170 167 78 87
61 years 169 167 75 84
62 years 162 161 73 81
63 years 163 162 71 79
64 years 166 164 69 76
65 years 171 172 69 75
66 years 170 171 67 73
67 years 166 168 65 72
68 years 166 169 62 67
69 years 168 173 59 63
70 years 176 181 59 62
71 years 189 195 58 62
72 years 195 201 56 60
73 years 193 202 54 57
74 years 189 199 49 53
75 years 188 199 46 51
76 years 182 195 45 49
77 years 175 189 40 45
78 years 168 184 38 41
79 years 159 178 36 39
80 years 150 168 33 37
81 years 142 163 31 34
82 years 131 152 27 31
83 years 119 141 24 28
84 years 107 130 23 26
85 years 99 121 21 25
86 years 89 113 19 23
87 years 79 105 17 20
88 years 72 97 14 18
89 years 64 90 12 16
90 years 47 70 10 13
91 years 36 57 8 11
92 years 29 48 6 8
93 years 22 40 4 7
94 years 16 31 3 5
95 years 12 24 2 4
96 years 8 18 2 3
97 years 5 13 1 2
98 years 4 10 1 2
99 years 2 7 0 1
100 years 2 5 0 1
101 years 1 3 0 1
102 years 1 2 0 0
103 years 0 1 0 0
104 years 0 1 0 0
105 years 0 0 0 0
106 years 0 0 0 0
107 years 0 0 0 0
108 years 0 0 0 0
109 years 0 0 0 0
110 years and over 0 0 0 0

In 2036, among the working-age population (15 to 64 years)—a population of interest for application of the Employment Equity Act—between 34.7% and 39.9% would belong to a visible minority group. This is a sharp increase over 2011 (19.6%). While the youngest members of the working-age population would have a higher proportion of visible minority members, those aged 45 to 64 years would see the most rapid increase in this share. This is because this age group would see its many baby boomersNote 50 turn 65 by 2031, who would be largely replaced by cohorts that include larger proportions of recent immigrants and people belonging to a visible minority group. This proportion would remain below the national average for the 65-and-older population.

The proportion of the working-age population that belongs to a visible minority group would be up in all parts of the country, in all the scenarios used (Figure 16). It would remain lower outside CMAs and would be highest in regions where immigrants represent the largest percentage of the population. It would be over 40% in all scenarios in the CMAs of Toronto, Vancouver, Edmonton, Calgary, Winnipeg and Abbotsford – Mission, in 2036.

Image 16 for Population Projections for Canada and its Regions

Description for Figure 16
Data table for figure 16
Proportion of the working-age population that belongs to a visible minority group by place of residence, Canada, 2011 (estimated) and 2036 (projected according to six scenarios)
Table summary
This table displays the results of Proportion of the working-age population that belongs to a visible minority group by place of residence. The information is grouped by Place of residence (appearing as row headers), Estimated, Projected - Reference scenario, Difference between the maximum and the reference scenario and Difference between the minimum and the reference scenario, calculated using percent units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Place of residence Estimated Projected - Reference scenario Difference between the maximum and the reference scenario Difference between the minimum and the reference scenario
percent
Toronto 47.6 68.6 1.7 2.5
Vancouver 45.8 64.9 1.2 2.9
Calgary 27.4 51.9 1.9 5.3
Abbotsford - Mission 25.4 46.0 1.5 3.3
Ottawa - Gatineau (Ontario part) 22.5 40.9 2.3 3.4
Edmonton 22.2 45.5 2.0 5.5
Montréal 20.5 40.4 1.6 2.9
Winnipeg 20.1 50.9 2.5 8.9
Canada 19.6 38.3 1.7 3.6
Windsor 17.1 38.4 2.0 3.4
Kitchener - Cambridge - Waterloo 16.5 35.8 2.1 3.4
Hamilton 14.8 30.3 1.8 2.7
Guelph 14.3 30.2 1.6 2.6
London 13.4 25.6 1.8 2.9
Victoria 11.5 21.2 0.9 2.0
Saskatoon 11.4 39.6 2.5 12.5
Oshawa 11.3 26.2 1.0 1.4
Regina 10.7 43.2 2.9 14.4
Halifax 9.0 20.9 1.4 2.6
Ottawa - Gatineau (Quebec part) 8.6 24.7 1.6 2.8
St. Catharines - Niagara 7.3 17.1 1.7 2.1
Barrie 6.5 14.7 0.9 1.2
Kingston 6.4 12.2 0.8 1.5
Kelowna 6.3 14.9 0.6 1.4
Brantford 5.7 9.5 0.5 0.8
Rest of Alberta 5.5 15.5 1.3 3.3
Territories 5.3 13.3 1.2 3.4
Rest of British Columbia 4.6 9.1 0.5 1.0
Sherbrooke 4.5 11.5 1.1 2.0
Peterborough 3.7 6.5 0.4 0.6
Moncton 3.5 12.1 1.4 4.5
Saint John 3.5 14.3 1.6 4.4
Prince Edward Island 3.3 20.1 2.5 11.6
Québec 3.1 8.3 0.8 1.3
Thunder Bay 3.0 8.7 0.6 1.3
Rest of Manitoba 3.0 13.1 1.2 3.7
Greater Sudbury 2.9 5.6 0.6 0.7
St-John's 2.6 9.5 0.9 1.6
Rest of Saskatchewan 2.5 14.1 1.5 6.3
Trois-Rivières 2.4 8.2 0.9 1.3
Rest of Nova Scotia 2.3 5.2 0.2 0.5
Rest of Ontario 2.2 4.6 0.3 0.5
Rest of New Brunswick 1.8 7.6 0.9 2.3
Rest of Quebec 0.9 3.2 0.2 0.4
Saguenay 0.8 3.5 0.4 0.6
Rest of Newfoundland and Labrador 0.6 2.1 0.3 0.4

The data in Figure 16 show that, in several regions, the increase in the proportion of people belonging to a visible minority group among the working-age population would be influenced more by where immigrants settle upon their arrival in Canada than by the total number of immigrants admitted at the national level. In 13 regions, the most unfavourable assumption to an increase in the proportion of visible minorities in the population aged 15 to 64 would be a similar geographical distribution of immigrants throughout Canada upon their arrival as in the early 2000s (alternative geographic distribution scenario based on the 2000-to-2005 period). Conversely, this same scenario would produce the strongest growth in the number of visible minority members aged 15 to 64 years in all Ontario CMAs, except Kingston, Brantford and Thunder Bay.

ReligionsNote 51

The religious profile of the country’s population has undergone some profound changes in recent decades. In the 1981 Census, approximately 90% of Canadians self-identified as Christians. Thirty years later, in 2011, this proportion had decreased to 67%. During this period, the proportion of people with no religious affiliation rose from 7% to 24% and the proportion of people who reported a non‑Christian religion increased from 3% to 9%. While the trend toward disaffiliation among Christians—and Protestants in particular—has been a factor in the increase of the unaffiliated population, immigration from countries with diverse traditions will have played a large part in the increased proportion of people with a non-Christian religion.

According to the scenarios developed for these projections, these trends should continue until 2036 (Figures 17a and 17b). At that time, the proportion of Christians in the population would have continued to decline to between 52% and 56%. Protestants, who were in the majority until the mid-20th century, would then compose less than 14% of the population. Catholicism would remain the religion with the largest number of followers (between 12.2 million and 14.4 million), compared with 13.3 million in 2011. However, Catholics would account for only 29.2% to 32.8% of the population (compare with 38.8% in 2011).

Image 17a for Population Projections for Canada and its Regions

Description for Figure 17a
Data table for figure 17a
Population of religious groups (no religious affiliation, Catholic, Protestant, Christian Orthodox and other Christian) as a percentage of the population, Canada, 2011 (estimated) and 2036 (projected according to seven scenarios)

Table summary
This table displays the results of Population of religious groups (no religious affiliation. The information is grouped by Year (appearing as row headers), No religious affiliation, Catholic, Protestant, Orthodox Christian, Other Christian , Maximum and Minimum, calculated using percent units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Year No religious affiliation Catholic Protestant Orthodox Christian Other Christian
Maximum Minimum Maximum Minimum Maximum Minimum Maximum Minimum Maximum Minimum
percent
2011 24.0 24.0 38.8 38.8 21.9 21.9 1.7 1.7 4.8 4.8
2016 26.8 25.3 37.5 36.6 19.8 19.3 1.7 1.7 5.7 5.4
2021 29.1 26.3 36.3 34.5 17.9 17.1 1.8 1.7 6.4 5.9
2026 31.1 27.1 35.1 32.6 16.4 15.2 1.8 1.6 7.1 6.4
2031 32.9 27.7 34.0 30.8 15.0 13.7 1.9 1.6 7.8 6.8
2036 34.6 28.2 32.9 29.1 13.7 12.3 1.9 1.6 8.4 7.2

Image 17b for Population Projections for Canada and its Regions

Description for Figure 17b
Data table for figure 17b
Population of religious groups (Buddhist, Hindu, Jewish, Muslim, Sikh and other religions) as a percentage of the population, Canada, 2011 (estimated) and 2036 (projected according to seven scenarios)
Table summary
This table displays the results of Population of religious groups (Buddhist. The information is grouped by Year (appearing as row headers), Buddhist, Hindu, Jewish , Muslim, Sikh, Other religions, Maximum and Minimum, calculated using percent units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Year Buddhist Hindu Jewish Muslim Sikh Other religions
Maximum Minimum Maximum Minimum Maximum Minimum Maximum Minimum Maximum Minimum Maximum Minimum
percent
2011 1.1 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 3.2 3.2 1.4 1.4 0.6 0.6
2016 1.3 1.2 1.8 1.8 1.0 1.0 4.0 3.9 1.6 1.6 0.6 0.6
2021 1.4 1.2 2.1 2.0 1.0 0.9 4.8 4.4 1.9 1.8 0.7 0.6
2026 1.5 1.2 2.4 2.2 1.0 0.9 5.6 4.8 2.1 2.0 0.7 0.6
2031 1.7 1.2 2.7 2.3 0.9 0.9 6.4 5.2 2.4 2.2 0.7 0.6
2036 1.8 1.3 2.9 2.5 0.9 0.9 7.2 5.6 2.7 2.3 0.7 0.6

The number of unaffiliated people would continue to increase and could represent between 28.2% and 34.6% of all Canadians in 2036. Insofar as the unaffiliated population is underrepresented among immigrants, the trend toward religious disaffiliation, among Protestants and Catholics born in Canada in particular, would be the main driver of this increase. By 2036, the unaffiliated population could be larger than the population of Catholic followers. Based on these projections, only a slowing of the trend toward disaffiliation (as suggested in the alternative religious mobility scenario using the trends from 1991 to 2001) would put Catholics ahead.

However, non-Christian religions would see the most rapid increase, their population doubling in almost all the scenarios selected from 2011 to 2036. Non-Christian religions combined would comprise between 13% and 16% of Canadians in 2036. Among them, the Muslim, Hindu and Sikh faiths, overrepresented among immigrants compared with their weight in the total population, would see a quicker increase in the number of their followers, although they would still represent only a modest share of the total Canadian population. Moreover, the population of Christians other than Catholics, Protestants and Orthodox Christians, which is also overrepresented among immigrants, could more than double.Note 52

Immigration, combined with the trend toward disaffiliation, would thus contribute to the development of a more religiously diverse Canada in 2036. This diversity can be measured through the Pew Research Center’s Religious Diversity Index, which was adapted to the Canadian data for this projection exercise (Box 5). This index has a value of 0 when the entire population is part of the same group (lack of diversity) and a value of 10 when the population can be broken down evenly among the religious groups that compose it (maximum diversity). The index is used to compare religious diversity over time and from one region to another. The results are presented in Figure 18.

Start of Text Box

Box 5 – Religious Diversity Index

The Religious Diversity Index used for these projections is an adaptation, geared to the situation in Canada, of the index used by the Pew Research Center in an article entitled Global Religious Diversity: Half of the Most Religiously Diverse Countries are in Asia-Pacific Region (Pew Research Center 2014), which was itself based on the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (Johnson and Grim 2013). In this report, the religious groups selected for calculating the index are Christian, Muslim, Hindu, Buddhist, Sikh, Jewish, other religion and unaffiliated. For more information on the methodology used to calculate the Religious Diversity Index, please see the Pew Research Center article (2014).

End of Text Box

Image 18 for Population Projections for Canada and its Regions

Description for Figure 18
Data table for figure 18
Religious Diversity Index by place of residence, Canada, 2011 (estimated) and 2036 (projected in seven scenarios)
Table summary
This table displays the results of Religious Diversity Index by place of residence. The information is grouped by Region (appearing as row headers), Estimated, Projected - Reference scenario, Difference between the maximum and the reference scenario and Difference between the minimum and the reference scenario, calculated using percent units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Region Estimated Projected - Reference scenario Difference between the maximum and the reference scenario Difference between the minimum and the reference scenario
percent
Vancouver 7.4 7.7 0.2 0.1
Toronto 7.1 8.1 0.1 0.1
Calgary 6.7 7.5 0.0 0.1
Edmonton 6.3 7.3 0.1 0.1
Rest of British Columbia 6.3 6.3 0.2 0.1
Territories 5.3 6.1 0.0 0.2
Rest of Alberta 5.3 6.2 0.0 0.1
Ottawa - Gatineau 5.3 6.8 0.1 0.2
Manitoba 5.3 6.6 0.0 0.2
Rest of Ontario 4.9 6.3 0.0 0.2
Saskatchewan 4.8 6.6 0.0 0.3
Montréal 4.8 6.7 0.1 0.2
Nova Scotia 4.3 5.8 0.0 0.4
New Brunswick 3.1 5.3 0.0 0.6
Prince Edward Island 3.1 6.0 0.1 0.6
Rest of Quebec 2.0 4.4 0.0 0.8
Newfoundland and Labrador 1.5 4.3 0.0 0.9

The results in Figure 18 show that, based on the scenarios used in these projections, there would be greater religious diversity in all regions by 2036. This increase would stem from two primary factors that act together in most regions: an increase in the proportion of the population that did not report a religion and an increase in the proportion of the population that belongs to a non-Christian religion. While the first factor has more to do with the changes within the Canadian-born population and the second more to do with immigration, the two of them together lead to a decline in the proportion of the population that is Christian.

Religious diversification would be more pronounced in the regions that were the most homogeneous from a religious point of view in 2011, mainly the regions in eastern Canada (Quebec and Atlantic), where the vast majority of the population was Christian. In these regions, religious diversification of the population stems in large part from disaffiliation, and to a lesser extent, from an increase in the proportion of non-Christian religions. Despite this diversification, Quebec and Atlantic Canada would still have the lowest levels of religious diversity in Canada in 2036.

The situation would be different in the regions that were already more religiously diverse in 2011, particularly the Vancouver, Toronto, Calgary and Edmonton CMAs (all of which had a large proportion of immigrants in their populations in 2011). These regions would continue to become more diversified, particularly due to the rise in the proportion of persons reporting a non-Christian religion. At the end of the projection period, these four CMAs would remain the most religiously diverse.

The rest of British Colombia—in other words the entire province outside Vancouver—is an exception in that the Religious Diversity Index would remain relatively stable (very slight increase) by 2036. In 2011, this region had the highest proportions of people who reported having no religion in the country (47%). The proportion of individuals with a non-Christian religion would be up, as would people who reported having no religion. As the population with no religion becomes the majority, the increase in its weight would become a homogenizing factor, thus running counter to the increase in the proportion of non-Christian people.

Overview of the provinces, territories and census metropolitan areas

This section presents a selection of indicators that summarize the key results for each region in the projection. These indicators are presented by province and by selected region (Montréal, Toronto, Vancouver and a region comprising the three territories) in tables and figures and include a brief description. This section complements the main analytical section in this report, which comprises multiple interregional comparisons. Readers interested in more projection results on the impacts of various aspects of immigration on the composition of the population and an analysis of the factors involved in the changes they could undergo in the coming years are invited to consult the previous section. They can also refer to the appendices in this document.

In this section, the results presented cover only the seven scenarios analyzed in the report. At the regional level, it is quite frequent for the scenarios presented only in the appendix—especially the alternative internal migration scenarios—to have values outside the ranges shown in this section. However, in the vast majority of cases, this only very slightly extends the range of results and therefore does not affect the broad conclusions.

Newfoundland and Labrador

  • In 2011, immigrants represented 1.8% of the total population of Newfoundland and Labrador. In 2036, this proportion would increase to between 3.1% and 4.6% of the province’s population, far below the Canadian average (between 24.5% and 30.0%). The increase in the proportion of immigrants would be influenced almost as much by where immigrants settle upon their arrival in Canada as by the change in the number of immigrants at the national level.
  • At the end of the projection period, between 39.2% and 44.4% of immigrants of Newfoundland and Labrador would be of Asian origin, while European immigrants would represent between 22.7% and 26.0% of the immigrant population. The main birthplaces of immigrants at the end of the projection period would be Northern Europe and South Asia.
  • Despite an increase in all the diversity indicators by 2036, Newfoundland and Labrador would remain the least diversified Canadian province from an ethnocultural standpoint, at least according to the indicators used.
  • The St. John’s CMA would be home to the majority of the province’s immigrants at the end of the projection period (between 75.4% and 76.2%), as was observed in 2011 (64.8%).

Image 19 for Population Projections for Canada and its Regions

Description for Figure 19
Data table for figure 19
Immigrant population by continent of birth and place of residence, Newfoundland and Labrador, 2011 (estimated) and 2036 (projected according to six scenarios)
Table summary
This table displays the results of Immigrant population by continent of birth and place of residence. The information is grouped by Region / Scenario (appearing as row headers), Americas, Europe, Asia, Africa and Oceania and others, calculated using thousands units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Region / Scenario Americas Europe Asia Africa Oceania and others
thousands
St-John's  
2011 Estimated 1 3 2 0 0
2036 Reference 2 3 6 2 0
2036 low-immigration 2 2 4 2 0
2036 High immigration 2 3 7 2 0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010 2 2 5 2 0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005 2 2 5 2 0
2036 Alternative immigration composition 3 3 6 2 0
Rest of Newfoundland and Labrador  
2011 Estimated 1 2 1 0 0
2036 Reference 1 1 1 1 0
2036 low-immigration 1 1 1 0 0
2036 High immigration 1 2 2 1 0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010 1 1 1 0 0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005 1 1 1 0 0
2036 Alternative immigration composition 1 2 1 1 0

Prince Edward Island

  • In 2011, 5.1% of Prince Edward Island’s population was composed of immigrants, a proportion far below the Canadian average (20.7%). By 2036, this proportion would increase in all scenarios to between 7.9% and 19.5% of the population. The increase in the proportion of immigrants would be influenced more by where immigrants settle upon their arrival in Canada than by the change in the number of immigrants at the national level.
  • In 2036, between 55.9% and 73.9% of the province’s immigrants would come from Asia, while immigrants from Europe would account for between 15.3% and 25.8% of the immigrant population. The main birthplaces of immigrants would be Eastern Asia, West Central Asia and the Middle East.
  • Although the ethnocultural diversity of Prince Edward Island’s population would increase between 2011 and 2036 according to all the indicators analyzed, the province would continue to be one of the least diversified among all Canadian provinces at the end of the projection period.

Image 20 for Population Projections for Canada and its Regions

Description for Figure 20
Data table for figure 20
Immigrant population by continent of birth, Prince Edward Island, 2011 (estimated) and 2036 (projected according to six scenarios)
Table summary
This table displays the results of Immigrant population by continent of birth. The information is grouped by Region / Scenario (appearing as row headers), Americas, Europe, Asia, Africa and Oceania and others, calculated using thousands units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Region / Scenario Americas Europe Asia Africa Oceania and others
thousands
2011 Estimated 2 3 3 0 0
2036 Reference 2 5 21 1 0
2036 low-immigration 2 4 14 1 0
2036 High immigration 2 5 25 1 0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010 2 4 17 1 0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005 2 3 7 0 0
2036 Alternative immigration composition 3 5 20 1 0

Nova Scotia

  • In 2011, Nova Scotia’s immigrant population represented 5.3% of the total population, a proportion well below the Canadian average (20.7%). By 2036, the proportion of immigrants in the province’s population would rise to between 7.7% and 10.7%. The increase in the proportion of immigrants would be influenced both by where immigrants settle upon their arrival in Canada and by the change in the number of immigrants at the national level.
  • In 2036, between 38.4% and 41.7% of the province’s immigrants would come from Asia, while immigrants from Europe would account for no more than 27.1% to 29.1% of the immigrant population. The main birthplaces of immigrant would be Northern Europe, and West and Central Asia and the Middle East.
  • As with the other Atlantic provinces, Nova Scotia would see greater ethnocultural diversity by 2036, according to all the diversity indicators analyzed. However, it would still be less diversified than the Canadian average in 2036.
  • As in 2011 (64.9%), Halifax would be the place of residence of the majority of immigrants living in Nova Scotia at the end of the projection period (between 74.7% and 76.3%).

Image 21 for Population Projections for Canada and its Regions

Description for Figure 21
Data table for figure 21
Immigrant population by continent of birth and place of residence, Nova Scotia, 2011 (estimated) and 2036 (projected according to six scenarios)
Table summary
This table displays the results of Immigrant population by continent of birth and place of residence. The information is grouped by Region / Scenario (appearing as row headers), Americas, Europe, Asia, Africa and Oceania and others, calculated using thousands units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Region / Scenario Americas Europe Asia Africa Oceania and others
thousands
Halifax  
2011 Estimated 6 12 12 3 0
2036 Reference 10 15 32 10 0
2036 low-immigration 8 12 23 8 0
2036 High immigration 11 17 36 12 0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010 10 15 31 10 0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005 9 13 25 8 0
2036 Alternative immigration composition 10 16 32 9 1
Rest of Nova Scotia  
2011 Estimated 6 9 2 0 0
2036 Reference 6 9 4 2 0
2036 low-immigration 5 8 3 1 0
2036 High immigration 6 10 5 2 0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010 6 9 4 1 0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005 5 8 4 1 0
2036 Alternative immigration composition 6 10 4 1 0

New Brunswick

  • In 2011, New Brunswick’s immigrant population represented 3.9% of the total population. By 2036, this proportion would increase to between 5.6% and 9.7%, still well below the Canadian average (between 24.5% and 30.0%). The increase in the proportion of immigrants would be influenced both by where immigrants settle upon their arrival in Canada and by the change in the number of immigrants nationally.
  • At the end of the projection period, between 43.2% and 51.2% of the province’s immigrants would be from Asia, while immigrants from Europe would account for between 22.3% and 24.9% of the immigrant population. The main birthplaces of immigrants would be East Asia and Southeast Asia.
  • Despite an increase in all diversity indicators by 2036, New Brunswick would remain one of the least ethnoculturally diverse provinces in Canada, at least according to the indicators used.
  • As opposed to what has been observed in other provinces, the majority of New Brunswick’s immigrants (between 54.0% and 58.3% in 2036) would live outside the province’s CMAs. This proportion was 59.9% in 2011. In 2036, the Moncton and Saint John CMAs would each comprise one-fifth to one-quarter of the province’s immigrants in all projection scenarios.
  • The proportion of immigrants in the populations of Moncton and Saint John would increase in all scenarios. In 2036, between 5.4% and 10.6% of the population of Moncton and between 7.1% and 12.0% of that of Saint John would be immigrants.

Image 22 for Population Projections for Canada and its Regions

Description for Figure 22
Data table for figure 22
Immigrant population by continent of birth and place of residence, New Brunswick, 2011 (estimated) and 2036 (projected according to six scenarios)
Table summary
This table displays the results of Immigrant population by continent of birth and place of residence. The information is grouped by Region / Scenario (appearing as row headers), Americas, Europe, Asia, Africa and Oceania and others, calculated using thousands units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Region / Scenario Americas Europe Asia Africa Oceania and others
thousands
Moncton  
2011 Estimated 2 2 2 1 0
2036 Reference 2 2 7 3 0
2036 low-immigration 1 2 4 2 0
2036 High immigration 2 2 8 3 0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010 2 2 5 2 0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005 1 1 3 2 0
2036 Alternative immigration composition 2 2 7 3 0
Saint John  
2011 Estimated 1 2 2 0 0
2036 Reference 2 2 9 0 0
2036 low-immigration 1 2 6 0 0
2036 High immigration 2 2 11 0 0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010 2 2 7 0 0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005 1 2 5 0 0
2036 Alternative immigration composition 2 2 9 0 0
Rest of New Brunswick  
2011 Estimated 7 6 3 1 0
2036 Reference 7 10 14 3 0
2036 low-immigration 6 7 10 2 0
2036 High immigration 7 11 16 3 0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010 6 8 12 2 0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005 5 6 8 2 0
2036 Alternative immigration composition 8 10 12 3 0

Quebec

  • In 2011, the proportion of immigrants in the population of Quebec was 12.7%, or 8 percentage points below the Canadian average. In 2036, immigrants’ share would rise to between 17.8% and 22.4%. The increase in the proportion of immigrants in Quebec would be influenced more by the share of immigrants that Quebec would receive out of the Canadian total than by the total volume of immigrants admitted to Canada.
  • The origin and composition—particularly the linguistic composition—of its immigrants sets Quebec apart from the other provinces. This is because Quebec is responsible for selecting its economic immigrants under the Canada-Quebec Accord Relating to Immigration and Temporary Admission of Aliens. In general, Quebec would continue to have the highest proportion of immigrants from Africa and the Americas of any province. In 2036, between 28.7% and 30.4% of immigrants residing in Quebec would be from Africa (compared with between 7.6% and 8.4% for Canada excluding Quebec) and between 21.6% and 22.4% from the Americas (versus 12.6% to 13.2% for Canada excluding Quebec).
  • Overall, although all the diversity indicators analyzed point to greater ethnocultural diversity by 2036, Quebec would continue to be less diversified from an ethnocultural standpoint than Canada as a whole.
  • In 2036, 19.1% to 22.4% of people would have neither English nor French as their mother tongue (12.9% in 2011) and 9.4% to 12.1% would report a non-Christian religion (5.6% in 2011). Among the population aged 15 to 64, between 24.4% and 28.5% would belong to a visible minority group in 2036 (11.2% in 2011).
  • The Montréal CMA would continue to be the place of residence for the majority of the province’s immigrants. Close to 9 out of 10 immigrants in Quebec would live there in 2036, as in 2011.
  • The projection results also show that the proportion of immigrants born in Africa would increase in all Quebec CMAs and that they would be the largest immigrant group in all these CMAs, except in the Montréal CMA (on par with Asian-born immigrants) and the Québec CMA (on par with immigrants born in Europe).

Montréal

  • In 2011, the proportion of immigrants in the Montréal CMA was 22.7%. Between 2011 and 2036, this proportion would increase to between 28.4% and 34.2%. As with Quebec, the increase in the proportion of immigrants in the population of Montréal would be influenced more by the share of immigrants that Quebec would receive out of the Canadian total than by the total volume of immigrants admitted to Canada.
  • At the end of the projection period, between 28.9% and 30.3% of immigrants in Montréal would be from Africa, between 29.6% and 30.3% from Asia, between 21.2% and 22.2% from the Americas and between 17.5% and 19.8% from Europe.
  • In 2036, between 30.6% and 34.5% of people would have neither English nor French as their mother tongue (23.2% in 2011) and between 15.4% and 19.3% would report a non-Christian religion (10.6% in 2011). Among the population aged 15 to 64 between 37.5% and 42.0% would belong to a visible minority group in 2036 (20.5% in 2011).
  • Of all regions in Quebec, the Montréal CMA would by far remain the most ethnoculturally diverse at the end of the projection period. It would be the only CMA in the province with a greater ethnocultural diversity than the Canadian average at the end of the projection period, according to the indicators used.

Image 23a for Population Projections for Canada and its Regions

Description for Figure 23a
Data table for figure 23a
Immigrant population by continent of birth and place of residence, Quebec, 2011 (estimated) and 2036 (projected according to six scenarios) - Montréal
Table summary
This table displays the results of Immigrant population by continent of birth and place of residence. The information is grouped by Region / Scenario (appearing as row headers), Americas, Europe, Asia, Africa and Oceania and others, calculated using thousands units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Region / Scenario Americas Europe Asia Africa Oceania and others
thousands
2011 Estimated 196 264 256 163 1
2036 Reference 378 306 520 516 2
2036 low-immigration 313 260 428 409 2
2036 High immigration 419 334 578 580 3
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010 396 318 543 543 3
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005 379 306 520 515 2
2036 Alternative immigration composition 364 341 508 497 9

Image 23b for Population Projections for Canada and its Regions

Description for Figure 23b
Data table for figure 23b
Immigrant population by continent of birth and place of residence, Quebec, 2011 (estimated) and 2036 (projected according to six scenarios) - Other regions of Quebec - part 1
Table summary
This table displays the results of Immigrant population by continent of birth and place of residence. The information is grouped by Region / Scenario (appearing as row headers), Americas, Europe, Asia, Africa and Oceania and others, calculated using thousands units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Region / Scenario Americas Europe Asia Africa Oceania and others
thousands
Rest of Quebec  
2011 Estimated 13 25 6 5 0
2036 Reference 18 31 12 17 0
2036 low-immigration 16 27 10 14 0
2036 High immigration 20 33 14 19 0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010 19 32 13 18 0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005 18 31 12 17 0
2036 Alternative immigration composition 19 32 12 16 2
Québec  
2011 Estimated 8 13 5 7 0
2036 Reference 14 20 9 20 0
2036 low-immigration 11 16 7 15 0
2036 High immigration 16 22 10 23 0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010 15 21 9 21 0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005 14 20 9 20 0
2036 Alternative immigration composition 16 22 9 18 0
Ottawa - Gatineau (Quebec part)  
2011 Estimated 7 10 7 8 0
2036 Reference 19 14 19 29 0
2036 low-immigration 16 12 15 23 0
2036 High immigration 22 15 21 33 0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010 21 14 19 31 0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005 20 14 19 30 0
2036 Alternative immigration composition 19 15 18 27 0

Image 23c for Population Projections for Canada and its Regions

Description for Figure 23c
Data table for figure 23c
Immigrant population by continent of birth and place of residence, Quebec, 2011 (estimated) and 2036 (projected according to six scenarios) - Other regions of Quebec - part 2
Table summary
This table displays the results of Immigrant population by continent of birth and place of residence. The information is grouped by Region / Scenario (appearing as row headers), Americas, Europe, Asia, Africa and Oceania and others, calculated using thousands units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Region / Scenario Americas Europe Asia Africa Oceania and others
thousands
Sherbrooke  
2011 Estimated 4 4 2 3 0
2036 Reference 6 6 4 7 0
2036 low-immigration 5 5 3 5 0
2036 High immigration 6 6 5 8 0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010 6 6 5 7 0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005 6 6 4 7 0
2036 Alternative immigration composition 6 6 4 6 0
Trois-Rivières  
2011 Estimated 1 1 0 1 0
2036 Reference 2 1 1 2 0
2036 low-immigration 2 1 1 2 0
2036 High immigration 3 2 1 3 0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010 3 2 1 3 0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005 2 1 1 3 0
2036 Alternative immigration composition 3 2 1 2 0
Saguenay  
2011 Estimated 0 1 0 0 0
2036 Reference 0 1 1 2 0
2036 low-immigration 0 1 0 1 0
2036 High immigration 0 1 1 2 0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010 0 1 1 2 0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005 0 1 1 2 0
2036 Alternative immigration composition 0 1 0 1 0

Ontario

  • In 2011, Ontario was the province with the largest proportion (28.5%) of immigrants in its population. In 2036, this proportion would increase to between 29.7% and 36.1%. The increase in the proportion of immigrants would be influenced both by where immigrants settle upon their arrival in Canada and by the change in the number of immigrants at the national level.
  • In 2036, if the composition of immigration remained similar to what has been observed in recent periods, approximately three out of five immigrants—between 58.6% and 61.2%—would have been born in Asia, while fewer than one in five would be from Europe (between 15.3% and 17.8%). The main birthplaces of immigrants living in Ontario would be Southern Asia and Eastern Asia.
  • As in 2011, Ontario would be the most diversified Canadian province in 2036, according to the ethnocultural indicators used. Between 2011 and 2036, all the diversity indicators would be up in all scenarios.
  • In 2036, between 31.0% and 36.2% people in Ontario would have neither English nor French as their mother tongue (25.9% in 2011) and between 17.2% and 20.8% would report a non-Christian religion (12.3% in 2011). Among the population aged 15 to 64, between 42.4% and 48.2% would belong to a visible minority group in 2036 (26.5% in 2011).
  • At the end of the projection period, between 73.4% and 74.5% of Ontario immigrants would be living in the Toronto CMA, compared with 70.1% in 2011.
  • With the exception of Toronto, Ottawa – Gatineau (Ontario part), Kitchener – Cambridge – Waterloo and Windsor, all regions of Ontario would have a less diverse ethnocultural portrait than the Canadian average in 2036, according to the indicators used. Diversity would be lowest at the end of the projection period in Greater Sudbury, the rest of Ontario, Peterborough and Thunder Bay, as in 2011.

Toronto

  • In 2036, Toronto would still be the Canadian CMA with the largest proportion of immigrants in all scenarios. At the end of the projection period, between 46.0% and 52.8% of its population would have immigrant status, compared with 46.0% in 2011. It would also remain the most diversified CMA in Canada in 2036, according to the indicators projected.
  • At the end of the projection period, between 65.0% and 67.3% of immigrants in Toronto would be born in Asia, between 13.4% and 14.1% in the Americas and between 11.8% and 13.5% in Europe.
  • In 2036, between 48.4% and 53.4% of people would have neither English nor French as their mother tongue (42.5% in 2011) and between 27.8% and 32.3% would report a non-Christian religion (22.2% in 2011). Among the population aged 15 to 64, between 66.1% and 70.2% would belong to a visible minority group in 2036 (47.6% in 2011).
  • The Toronto CMA would continue to be the most ethnoculturally diverse region in Canada at the end of the projection period.

Image 24a for Population Projections for Canada and its Regions

Description for Figure 24a
Data table for figure 24a
Immigrant population by continent of birth and place of residence, Ontario, 2011 (estimated) and 2036 (projected according to six scenarios) - Toronto
Table summary
This table displays the results of Immigrant population by continent of birth and place of residence. The information is grouped by Region / Scenario (appearing as row headers), Americas, Europe, Asia, Africa and Oceania and others, calculated using thousands units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Region / Scenario Americas Europe Asia Africa Oceania and others
thousands
2011 Estimated 417 690 1,390 142 7
2036 Reference 571 520 2,781 302 14
2036 low-immigration 486 465 2,238 244 12
2036 High immigration 615 548 3,064 333 16
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010 599 537 2,950 319 15
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005 646 566 3,239 348 16
2036 Alternative immigration composition 583 564 2,733 278 18

Image 24b for Population Projections for Canada and its Regions

Description for Figure 24b
Data table for figure 24b
Immigrant population by continent of birth and place of residence, Ontario, 2011 (estimated) and 2036 (projected according to six scenarios) - Other Ontario regions - part 1
Table summary
This table displays the results of Immigrant population by continent of birth and place of residence. The information is grouped by Region / Scenario (appearing as row headers), Americas, Europe, Asia, Africa and Oceania and others, calculated using thousands units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Region / Scenario Americas Europe Asia Africa Oceania and others
thousands
Ottawa - Gatineau (Ontario part)  
2011 Estimated 34 62 92 27 1
2036 Reference 57 47 170 68 1
2036 low-immigration 46 42 136 53 1
2036 High immigration 63 49 188 76 2
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010 60 48 180 72 2
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005 66 50 196 79 2
2036 Alternative immigration composition 55 50 165 62 2
Hamilton  
2011 Estimated 22 96 47 9 1
2036 Reference 38 73 104 22 1
2036 low-immigration 31 66 84 17 1
2036 High immigration 41 76 114 24 2
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010 40 75 109 23 2
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005 43 78 119 25 2
2036 Alternative immigration composition 39 77 101 20 2
Kitchener - Cambridge - Waterloo  
2011 Estimated 17 55 36 6 0
2036 Reference 26 43 93 20 1
2036 low-immigration 22 39 73 15 1
2036 High immigration 28 45 103 22 1
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010 27 44 98 20 1
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005 29 46 107 22 1
2036 Alternative immigration composition 27 46 91 18 1
London  
2011 Estimated 16 45 26 4 0
2036 Reference 26 29 52 8 1
2036 low-immigration 21 26 41 7 1
2036 High immigration 29 30 58 9 1
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010 28 29 55 9 1
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005 30 30 60 10 1
2036 Alternative immigration composition 29 30 52 8 1

Image 24c for Population Projections for Canada and its Regions

Description for Figure 24c
Data table for figure 24c
Immigrant population by continent of birth and place of residence, Ontario, 2011 (estimated) and 2036 (projected according to six scenarios) - Other Ontario regions - part 2
Table summary
This table displays the results of Immigrant population by continent of birth and place of residence. The information is grouped by Region / Scenario (appearing as row headers), Americas, Europe, Asia, Africa and Oceania and others, calculated using thousands units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Region / Scenario Americas Europe Asia Africa Oceania and others
thousands
Windsor  
2011 Estimated 11 31 28 4 0
2036 Reference 17 20 56 12 0
2036 low-immigration 14 19 45 9 0
2036 High immigration 18 21 61 14 0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010 18 20 58 13 0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005 20 21 62 14 0
2036 Alternative immigration composition 17 21 53 11 0
St. Catharines - Niagara  
2011 Estimated 13 42 10 3 0
2036 Reference 16 23 21 7 1
2036 low-immigration 14 22 17 6 1
2036 High immigration 18 24 23 8 1
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010 17 24 22 8 1
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005 19 24 24 9 1
2036 Alternative immigration composition 16 24 20 7 1
Oshawa  
2011 Estimated 13 31 12 2 0
2036 Reference 20 23 35 8 1
2036 low-immigration 18 22 30 7 1
2036 High immigration 21 24 38 9 1
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010 21 23 37 9 1
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005 22 24 39 9 1
2036 Alternative immigration composition 20 24 35 8 1
Guelph  
2011 Estimated 3 13 11 1 0
2036 Reference 5 10 23 2 0
2036 low-immigration 5 9 19 2 0
2036 High immigration 6 10 25 3 0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010 6 10 24 3 0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005 6 10 25 3 0
2036 Alternative immigration composition 5 10 23 2 0

Image 24d for Population Projections for Canada and its Regions

Description for Figure 24d
Data table for figure 24d
Immigrant population by continent of birth and place of residence, Ontario, 2011 (estimated) and 2036 (projected according to six scenarios) - Other Ontario regions - part 3
Table summary
This table displays the results of Immigrant population by continent of birth and place of residence. The information is grouped by Region / Scenario (appearing as row headers), Americas, Europe, Asia, Africa and Oceania and others, calculated using thousands units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Region / Scenario Americas Europe Asia Africa Oceania and others
thousands
Barrie  
2011 Estimated 4 14 4 1 0
2036 Reference 8 15 13 3 0
2036 low-immigration 7 14 11 2 0
2036 High immigration 9 15 14 3 0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010 9 15 14 3 0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005 9 16 15 3 0
2036 Alternative immigration composition 8 15 13 3 0
Kingston  
2011 Estimated 3 11 4 1 0
2036 Reference 4 7 8 1 0
2036 low-immigration 4 7 7 1 0
2036 High immigration 5 8 9 2 0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010 4 8 9 2 0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005 5 8 9 2 0
2036 Alternative immigration composition 4 8 8 1 0
Brantford  
2011 Estimated 2 10 3 0 0
2036 Reference 3 6 5 1 0
2036 low-immigration 3 6 4 1 0
2036 High immigration 3 6 5 1 0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010 3 6 5 1 0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005 3 6 5 1 0
2036 Alternative immigration composition 3 6 5 1 0

Image 24e for Population Projections for Canada and its Regions

Description for Figure 24e
Data table for figure 24e
Immigrant population by continent of birth and place of residence, Ontario, 2011 (estimated) and 2036 (projected according to six scenarios) - Other Ontario regions - part 4
Table summary
This table displays the results of Immigrant population by continent of birth and place of residence. The information is grouped by Region / Scenario (appearing as row headers), Americas, Europe, Asia, Africa and Oceania and others, calculated using thousands units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Region / Scenario Americas Europe Asia Africa Oceania and others
thousands
Thunder Bay  
2011 Estimated 1 8 2 0 0
2036 Reference 1 3 4 0 0
2036 low-immigration 1 3 3 0 0
2036 High immigration 1 3 4 0 0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010 1 3 4 0 0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005 1 3 4 0 0
2036 Alternative immigration composition 1 3 4 0 0
Greater Sudbury  
2011 Estimated 1 7 1 0 0
2036 Reference 1 3 2 1 0
2036 low-immigration 1 3 2 1 0
2036 High immigration 2 3 2 1 0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010 2 3 2 1 0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005 2 3 2 1 0
2036 Alternative immigration composition 1 3 2 1 0
Peterborough  
2011 Estimated 2 6 2 0 0
2036 Reference 1 4 3 1 0
2036 low-immigration 1 4 3 0 0
2036 High immigration 1 4 4 1 0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010 1 4 3 1 0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005 2 4 4 1 0
2036 Alternative immigration composition 1 4 3 1 0

Manitoba

  • In 2011, Manitoba’s immigrant population represented 15.7% of the total population. At the end of the projection period, this proportion would increase to between 22.4% and 32.6%. In 2036, the proportion of immigrants in Manitoba would be close to the Canadian average. The increase in the proportion of immigrants in Manitoba would be influenced more by where immigrants settle upon their arrival in Canada than by the change in the number of immigrants at the national level.
  • At the end of the projection period, between 60.7% and 66.6% of Manitoba immigrants would be of Asian origin, while those from Europe would represent between 12.3% and 19.1% of the immigrant population. The main birthplaces of these immigrants would be Southeast Asia and Southern Asia.
  • By 2036, according to all the diversity indicators used, there would be an increase in ethnocultural diversity in Manitoba in all scenarios. However, this increase would be much slower if the geographic distribution of immigrants upon their arrival in Canada over the next 25 years were similar to the estimate between 2000 and 2005.
  • In 2036, the vast majority of immigrants in Manitoba would be concentrated in Winnipeg (between 77.1% and 81.8%), as in 2011 (79.5%).
  • The proportion of immigrants in the population of Winnipeg would increase in all scenarios to between 29.2% and 40.5% in 2036 (20.7% in 2011), surpassing the Canadian average in all scenarios.

 

Image 25 for Population Projections for Canada and its Regions

Description for Figure 25
Data table for figure 25
Immigrant population by continent of birth and place of residence, Manitoba, 2011 (estimated) and 2036 (projected according to six scenarios)
Table summary
This table displays the results of Immigrant population by continent of birth and place of residence. The information is grouped by Region / Scenario (appearing as row headers), Americas, Europe, Asia, Africa and Oceania and others, calculated using thousands units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Region / Scenario Americas Europe Asia Africa Oceania and others
thousands
Winnipeg  
2011 Estimated 18 44 81 10 1
2036 Reference 28 37 299 51 1
2036 low-immigration 24 31 221 37 1
2036 High immigration 31 39 340 59 1
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010 26 34 253 43 1
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005 23 29 187 31 1
2036 Alternative immigration composition 31 47 271 41 2
Rest of Manitoba  
2011 Estimated 14 17 7 1 0
2036 Reference 19 28 37 9 0
2036 low-immigration 15 22 26 6 0
2036 High immigration 21 31 43 10 0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010 17 24 31 7 0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005 14 20 22 5 0
2036 Alternative immigration composition 22 50 37 6 0

Saskatchewan

  • In 2011, immigrants represented 6.9% of the population of Saskatchewan. By 2036, this proportion would increase to between 11.6% and 23.8%, still below the Canadian average. The increase in the proportion of immigrants would be influenced more by where immigrants settle upon their arrival in Canada than by the variation in the number of immigrants at the national level.
  • At the end of the projection period, between 62.1% and 72.2% of immigrants in Saskatchewan would be of Asian origin, while immigrants from Europe would account for between 12.4% and 20.2%. As in the other Prairie provinces, the main birthplaces of immigrants to Saskatchewan would be Southeast Asia and Southern Asia.
  • By 2036, according to all the diversity indicators used, there would be an increase in ethnocultural diversity in Saskatchewan in all scenarios. However, as in Manitoba, this increase would be much slower if the geographic distribution of immigrants upon their arrival in Canada throughout the projection were similar to the estimate between 2000 and 2005. At the end of the projection period, Saskatchewan would remain the least ethnoculturally diverse Prairie province.
  • In 2036, Saskatchewan would continue to be one of the provinces where a significant proportion of immigrants would live outside a CMA. Close to one in four immigrants (between 25.5% and 30.1%) would live outside a CMA in 2036, compare to 29.2% in 2011.
  • The proportion of immigrants in the Saskatoon and Regina CMAs could increase either very slowly or very rapidly (and even triple in 25 years), depending on the scenario. The rate of increase would depend largely on where immigrants settle in Canada upon their arrival.

Image 26 for Population Projections for Canada and its Regions

Description for Figure 26
Data table for figure 26
Immigrant population by continent of birth and place of residence, Saskatchewan, 2011 (estimated) and 2036 (projected according to six scenarios)
Table summary
This table displays the results of Immigrant population by continent of birth and place of residence. The information is grouped by Region / Scenario (appearing as row headers), Americas, Europe, Asia, Africa and Oceania and others, calculated using thousands units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Region / Scenario Americas Europe Asia Africa Oceania and others
thousands
Saskatoon  
2011 Estimated 3 7 16 2 0
2036 Reference 8 13 84 10 1
2036 low-immigration 6 10 59 7 0
2036 High immigration 9 14 97 11 1
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010 6 8 51 6 0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005 5 7 37 5 0
2036 Alternative immigration composition 10 22 73 10 1
Regina  
2011 Estimated 3 6 12 2 0
2036 Reference 7 8 81 8 0
2036 low-immigration 5 7 58 6 0
2036 High immigration 7 9 94 9 0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010 5 6 49 5 0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005 4 5 35 4 0
2036 Alternative immigration composition 7 12 65 8 0
Rest of Saskatchewan  
2011 Estimated 4 9 7 1 0
2036 Reference 7 16 46 7 0
2036 low-immigration 5 12 33 5 0
2036 High immigration 7 18 54 8 0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010 5 11 27 4 0
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005 4 8 19 3 0
2036 Alternative immigration composition 8 27 47 8 1

Alberta

  • In 2011, the proportion of immigrants in the Alberta population as a whole was 18.1%. This proportion was 2.6 percentage points lower than the Canadian average. By 2036, the proportion of immigrants would increase to between 23.6% and 31.0% of the province’s population. As with the other Prairie provinces, the increase in the proportion of immigrants would be influenced more by where immigrants settle upon their arrival in Canada than by the variation in the number of immigrants at the national level.
  • At the end of the projection period, between 59.4% and 63.4% of immigrants in Alberta would be of Asian origin, while European immigrants would account for between 12.4% and 16.2% of the immigrant population. The main immigrant birthplaces would be Southeast Asia and Southern Asia.
  • According to all the diversity indicators used, there would be an increase in ethnocultural diversity in Alberta in all scenarios by 2036. As in 2011, Alberta would remain the most ethnoculturally diverse Prairie province in 2036. Generally speaking, the ethnocultural diversity of Alberta would be very similar to the diversity projected for Canada at the end of the projection period.
  • In 2036, between 25.5% and 31.6% of people would have neither English nor French as their mother tongue (19.1% in 2011) and between 12.5% and 15.5% would report a non-Christian religion (8.1% in 2011). Among the population aged 15 to 64, between 34.3% and 41.6% would belong to a visible minority group (18.3% in 2011).
  • The vast majority of immigrants in Alberta would still be concentrated in the province’s two CMAs (between 86.1% and 86.7% in 2036, compared with 84.5% in 2011). In 2036, roughly half of all immigrants in Alberta would live in Calgary and approximately one-third in Edmonton.
  • The proportion of immigrants in the populations of Calgary and Edmonton would increase in all scenarios. In 2036, Calgary’s population would have between 32.7% and 40.8% of immigrants and Edmonton’s between 26.1% and 33.8%.

Image 27 for Population Projections for Canada and its Regions

Description for Figure 27
Data table for figure 27
Immigrant population by continent of birth and place of residence, Alberta, 2011 (estimated) and 2036 (projected according to six scenarios)
Table summary
This table displays the results of Immigrant population by continent of birth and place of residence. The information is grouped by Region / Scenario (appearing as row headers), Americas, Europe, Asia, Africa and Oceania and others, calculated using thousands units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Region / Scenario Americas Europe Asia Africa Oceania and others
thousands
Calgary  
2011 Estimated 39 80 179 28 4
2036 Reference 96 106 601 96 8
2036 low-immigration 78 89 468 74 6
2036 High immigration 106 114 670 107 8
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010 83 93 493 79 7
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005 76 86 439 70 6
2036 Alternative immigration composition 104 132 573 89 8
Edmonton  
2011 Estimated 27 66 126 23 4
2036 Reference 64 69 412 89 7
2036 low-immigration 52 59 316 69 6
2036 High immigration 71 74 462 100 8
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010 56 61 335 74 6
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005 52 57 295 66 5
2036 Alternative immigration composition 67 85 385 82 8
Rest of Alberta  
2011 Estimated 26 45 26 7 2
2036 Reference 43 56 118 28 3
2036 low-immigration 35 47 87 21 2
2036 High immigration 47 60 135 31 3
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010 36 49 92 22 3
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005 33 45 78 19 2
2036 Alternative immigration composition 46 72 100 27 3

 

British Columbia

  • In 2011, immigrants accounted for 27.5% of British Columbia’s population. By 2036, this proportion would increase to between 29.5% and 35.1%. The increase in the proportion of the province’s immigrants would be influenced more by the change in the number of immigrants at the national level than by where immigrants settle upon their arrival in Canada.
  • In 2036, if the composition of immigration by country of birth remained similar to what has been observed recently throughout the projection, the proportion of immigrants of Asian origin in the immigrant population would be between 68.9% and 70.6%, while immigrants of European origin would represent between 14.6% and 16.0%. The main birthplaces of immigrants in this province at the end of the projection period would be Eastern Asia and Southeast Asia.
  • As in 2011, British Columbia would remain one of the most diversified Canadian provinces in 2036 according to the ethnocultural indicators used. Between 2011 and 2036, all diversity indicators would be higher in all scenarios.
  • In 2036, between 32.1% and 36.7% of people would have neither English nor French as their mother tongue (26.4% in 2011) and between 14.3% and 17.3% would report a non-Christian religion (11.2% in 2011). Among the population aged 15 to 64, between 42.0% and 46.9% would belong to a visible minority group (28.4% in 2011).
  • In 2036, between 80.0% and 81.0% of all of the province’s immigrants would be living in Vancouver, a proportion similar to 2011 (76.5%).
  • With the exception of Vancouver and Abbotsford – Mission, all regions in British Columbia would have a less diversified ethnocultural portrait than the Canadian average in 2036, according to the ethnocultural indicators used.

Vancouver

  • In 2011, the proportion of immigrants in the Vancouver CMA was 40.0%. Between 2011 and 2036, it would increase to between 42.1% and 48.5%. As with British Columbia as a whole, the increase in the proportion of immigrants in Vancouver’s population would be influenced more by the change in the number of immigrants at the national level than by where immigrants settle upon their arrival in Canada.
  • At the end of the projection period, between 76.7% and 77.8% of immigrants in Vancouver would be from Asia, while immigrants from Europe would represent between 10.2% and 11.1% of the immigrant population.
  • In 2036, between 48.1% and 52.9% of people would have neither English nor French as their mother tongue (40.7% in 2011) and between 20.3% and 23.8% would report a non-Christian religion (16.9% in 2011). Among the population aged 15 to 64, between 62.0% and 66.2% would belong to a visible minority group (45.8% in 2011).
  • Along with Toronto, Vancouver would remain one of the two most ethnoculturally diverse CMAs in Canada at the end of the projection period.

Image 28a for Population Projections for Canada and its Regions

Description for Figure 28a
Data table for figure 28a
Immigrant population by continent of birth and place of residence, British Columbia, 2011 (estimated) and 2036 (projected according to six scenarios) - Vancouver
Table summary
This table displays the results of Immigrant population by continent of birth and place of residence. The information is grouped by Region / Scenario (appearing as row headers), Americas, Europe, Asia, Africa and Oceania and others, calculated using thousands units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Region / Scenario Americas Europe Asia Africa Oceania and others
thousands
2011 Estimated 63 180 650 29 24
2036 Reference 113 157 1,190 50 27
2036 low-immigration 93 135 962 41 23
2036 High immigration 122 168 1,308 54 29
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010 118 163 1,260 52 28
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005 115 159 1,214 50 28
2036 Alternative immigration composition 115 164 1,180 46 27

Image 28b for Population Projections for Canada and its Regions

Description for Figure 28b
Data table for figure 28b
Immigrant population by continent of birth and place of residence, British Columbia, 2011 (estimated) and 2036 (projected according to six scenarios) - British Columbia regions
Table summary
This table displays the results of Immigrant population by continent of birth and place of residence. The information is grouped by Region / Scenario (appearing as row headers), Americas, Europe, Asia, Africa and Oceania and others, calculated using thousands units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Region / Scenario Americas Europe Asia Africa Oceania and others
thousands
Rest of British Columbia  
2011 Estimated 28 98 26 5 4
2036 Reference 34 77 49 12 7
2036 low-immigration 30 69 40 10 6
2036 High immigration 37 81 55 13 7
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010 36 79 51 12 7
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005 35 77 49 12 7
2036 Alternative immigration composition 35 79 47 11 7
Victoria  
2011 Estimated 10 32 18 3 1
2036 Reference 15 26 33 5 2
2036 low-immigration 13 24 27 4 2
2036 High immigration 16 28 36 6 3
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010 16 27 34 6 2
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005 15 26 33 5 2
2036 Alternative immigration composition 15 27 32 5 2
Abbotsford - Mission  
2011 Estimated 4 10 25 1 1
2036 Reference 5 9 49 3 1
2036 low-immigration 4 8 39 2 1
2036 High immigration 5 9 53 3 1
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010 5 9 51 3 1
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005 5 9 49 3 1
2036 Alternative immigration composition 5 9 49 2 1
Kelowna  
2011 Estimated 3 16 5 1 1
2036 Reference 7 18 14 2 1
2036 Low immigration 6 15 12 2 1
2036 High immigration 7 19 16 2 1
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2005/2010 7 18 15 2 1
2036 Alternative geographic distribution 2000/2005 7 18 14 2 1
2036 Alternative immigration composition 7 18 14 2 1

Territories

  • In 2011, the immigrant population accounted for 6.8% of the total population of the territories, which are populated largely by people of Aboriginal identity. In 2036, the proportion of immigrants in the population of the territories could total between 8.4% and 12.8%. The results of the different scenarios show that the increase in the proportion of immigrants in the territories would be influenced more by where immigrants settle upon their arrival in Canada than by the change in the number of immigrants at the national level.
  • In 2036, the proportion of immigrants from Asia could range from 50.2% to 55.8%, while immigrants of European origin would represent between 20.0% and 21.7% of the territories’ immigrant population at the end of the projection period. The main birthplaces of immigrants living in the territories in 2036 would be Southeast Asia and Western Europe.
  • At the end of the projection period, between 12.7% and 22.4% of Yukon’s population (11.2% in 2011), between 9.6% and 13.1% of the Northwest Territories’ population (7.1% in 2011) and between 3.3% and 4.4% of the Nunavut population (1.9% in 2011) would be immigrants.

Conclusion

The purpose of this report was to produce projection results from 2011 to 2036 in order to assess the influence of various aspects of immigration–the number of immigrants, the composition by country of birth, and the geographic distribution of immigrants upon their arrival in Canada–on ethnocultural diversity in Canada and its regions. Ethnocultural diversity is measured using various indicators such as birthplace, visible minority status, religion and mother tongue.

The different projection scenarios developed for this exercise indicate that the proportion of immigrants, people with a mother tongue other than English or French, people who reported having a non‑Christian religion, and people who belong to a visible minority group within Canada’s population would increase by 2036. In other words, Canada and all its regions would be more diversified in 2036 than in 2011, at least according to the indicators used.

Although the level of immigration would have a direct effect on how quickly Canada’s population becomes more diversified in coming years, the speed of this diversification in some regions would be influenced more by where immigrants settle upon their arrival in Canada than by the number of immigrants admitted nationally each year. For example, the projection results show that if a more important proportion of immigrants arriving in Canada settled in Ontario throughout the projections, as observed during the 2000-to-2005 period, ethnocultural diversity in all the Atlantic and Prairie provinces (Saskatchewan in particular) would increase much less quickly. Conversely, if these regions were to receive a larger proportion of the immigrants settling in Canada, as has been observed recently, they would become more ethnoculturally diverse more quickly.

Furthermore, according to the scenarios developed for these projections, if immigration by country of birth were to return to its 2005–2010 levels, there would be little impact on how quickly the population of Canada and its regions become more diverse in the coming years since the composition of immigration has basically remained Asian in recent years.

Readers are reminded that these projections are subject to a number of sources of uncertainty, particularly data sources and estimation of components and assumptions with regard to the evolution of the components considered, which could affect the results.

Lastly, the choice of assumptions and scenarios is not intended to predict the future, but rather to provide data users with a portrait of the Canadian population if certain conditions were met. Because it is impossible to know the future, several scenarios were developed to identify a broad range of plausible possibilities in light of the data and past trends, among others. For this reason, users of these projections are encouraged to consider the entire range of results rather than to look for a more likely scenario.

Appendices

Table A1. Population by generation status and continent of birth of immigrants, place of residence and projection scenario, Canada, 2011 and 2036

2011 - Base population (estimated)

2036 - Projected according to the reference scenario

2036 - Projected according to the low-immigration scenario

2036 - Projected according to the high-immigration scenario

2036 - Projected according to the alternative geographic distribution of immigrants upon arrival scenario (2005/2006 to 2009/2010)

2036 - Projected according to the alternative geographic distribution of immigrants upon arrival scenario (2000/2001 to 2004/2005)

2036 - Projected according to the alternative composition of immigration by country of birth scenario (2005/2006 to 2009/2010)

2036 - Projected according to the low-growth scenario

2036 - Projected according to the high-growth scenario

2036 - Projected according to the alternative internal migration scenario (2006 to 2011)

2036 - Projected according to the alternative internal migration scenario (2001 to 2006)

2036 - Projected according to the alternative internal migration scenario (1996 to 2001)

Table A2. Population by visible minority group, place of residence and projection scenario, Canada, 2011 and 2036

2011 - Base population (estimated)

2036 - Projected according to the reference scenario

2036 - Projected according to the low-immigration scenario

2036 - Projected according to the high-immigration scenario

2036 - Projected according to the alternative geographic distribution of immigrants upon arrival scenario (2005/2006 to 2009/2010)

2036 - Projected according to the alternative geographic distribution of immigrants upon arrival scenario (2000/2001 to 2004/2005)

2036 - Projected according to the alternative composition of immigration by country of birth scenario (2005/2006 to 2009/2010)

2036 - Projected according to the low-growth scenario

2036 - Projected according to the high-growth scenario

2036 - Projected according to the alternative internal migration scenario (2006 to 2011)

2036 - Projected according to the alternative internal migration scenario (2001 to 2006)

2036 - Projected according to the alternative internal migration scenario (1996 to 2001)

Table A3. Population by religion, place of residence and projection scenario, Canada, 2011 and 2036

2011 - Base population (estimated)

2036 - Projected according to the reference scenario

2036 - Projected according to the low-immigration scenario

2036 - Projected according to the high-immigration scenario

2036 - Projected according to the alternative geographic distribution of immigrants upon arrival scenario (2005/2006 to 2009/2010)

2036 - Projected according to the alternative geographic distribution of immigrants upon arrival scenario (2000/2001 to 2004/2005)

2036 - Projected according to the alternative composition of immigration by country of birth scenario (2005/2006 to 2009/2010)

2036 - Projected according to the alternative religious mobility scenario (1991 to 2001)

2036 - Projected according to the low-growth scenario

2036 - Projected according to the high-growth scenario

2036 - Projected according to the alternative internal migration scenario (2006 to 2011)

2036 - Projected according to the alternative internal migration scenario (2001 to 2006)

2036 - Projected according to the alternative internal migration scenario (1996 to 2001)

Table A4. Age structure indicators by generation status and continent of birth of immigrants, visible minority group and religion, Canada, 2011 and 2036

2011 - Base population (estimated)

2036 - Projected according to the reference scenario

2036 - Projected according to the low-immigration scenario

2036 - Projected according to the high-immigration scenario

2036 - Projected according to the alternative geographic distribution of immigrants upon arrival scenario (2005/2006 to 2009/2010)

2036 - Projected according to the alternative geographic distribution of immigrants upon arrival scenario (2000/2001 to 2004/2005)

2036 - Projected according to the alternative composition of immigration by country of birth scenario (2005/2006 to 2009/2010)

2036 - Projected according to the low-growth scenario

2036 - Projected according to the high-growth scenario

2036 - Projected according to the alternative internal migration scenario (2006 to 2011)

2036 - Projected according to the alternative internal migration scenario (2001 to 2006)

2036 - Projected according to the alternative internal migration scenario (1996 to 2001)

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GlossaryNote 53

Aboriginal people

Person who reported belonging to at least one Aboriginal group (North American Indian, Métis or Inuit) and/or reported being a Treaty or Registered Indian, as defined by the Canadian Indian Act, and/or reported belonging to an Indian band and/or a First Nation in the census.

Age pyramid

Histogram (column diagram) that shows population distribution by age and sex.

Base population

The population used as the starting point for population projections.

Canadian citizenship

A person’s legal status as a Canadian citizen, whether by birth or by naturalization.

Canadian population

Population whose usual place of residence is Canada. It includes Canadian citizens by birth, naturalized and non-naturalized immigrants and non-permanent residents.

Census metropolitan area

Area consisting of one or more adjacent municipalities centered on a population core. It has a population of at least 100,000, of which 50,000 or more live in the core.

Cohort

Represents a group of people who experienced a specific demographic event during a given period that may be one year in length. For example, the married cohort of 1966 consists of the people who married in 1966. In the case of births, people born within a specified year are referred to as a generation.

Cohort-component method

Method used for population estimates or projections that is based on the components of demographic change and a base population as input. The phrase "cohort-component method" is usually restricted to methods projecting the future evolution of cohorts by age and sex, as opposed to other methods, such as microsimulation, that also use components of population growth but that project the demographic destiny of individuals.

Components of population growth

Any class of event that generates population changes. For example, births, deaths and migration are components that modify either the size of the total population or its composition by age and sex.

Emigrant

Canadian citizen or immigrant who left Canada to establish permanent residence in another country.

Ethnocultural diversity

In this document, the notion of ethnocultural diversity refers to diversity as it relates to visible minority groups, generation status, religion, birthplace and mother tongue. Clearly, this operational definition does not cover all forms of ethnocultural diversity, which could therefore be defined through other variables.

Fertility

A demographic phenomenon related to live births that can be considered from the point of view of women, the couple and, very occasionally, men.

First official language spoken

Refer to a variable specified within the framework of the Official Languages Act used to identify the first official language spoken by a person (i.e., English or French). This information is derived from three linguistic questions from the census (in order): knowledge of the official languages, the language first learned at home and still understood, and the language spoken most often at home.

Generation status based on immigration status

The respondent’s generation rank since the settlement of his/her family (meaning direct ascendants) in Canada. In the context of Demosim, immigrants are the first generation; the second generation refers to non-immigrants born in Canada to at least one foreign-born parent; the generations that follow (third or more) comprise non-immigrants born in Canada to two Canadian-born parents. A more detailed version of this variable split the first and second generations into two distinct groups: generations 1 and 1.5; and generations 2 and 2.5. According to this version of the variable, generation 1 refers to immigrants admitted at age 15 or more, while generation 1.5 refers to immigrants admitted at age 14 or less. Generation 2 refers to non-immigrants born in Canada to two foreign-born parents, while generation 2.5 refers to non-immigrants born in Canada to one foreign-born parent and to one parent born in Canada. This definition of generation status differs slightly from the one used in the census, which is based only on the place of birth (without regard to immigrant status).

Highest level of education

A person's most advanced certificate, diploma or degree.

Immigrant

A person who has been granted the right to live in Canada permanently by immigration authorities.

Immigrant category of admission

An administrative category under which a person is admitted to Canada as a permanent resident under the Immigration and Refugee Protection Act. At the aggregate level, classes are composed of economic immigrants, immigrants admitted as members of a family, immigrants admitted as protected people (refugees) and other immigrants.

Immigration

The sum of all immigrants from other countries landing in Canada, involving a change in usual place of residence.

Immigration rate

The number of immigrants divided by the size of the population during a given period.

Internal migration

The sum of all population movements between the geographic units within Canada's geographical boundaries, involving a change in usual place of residence.

International migration

The sum of all movements between Canada and other countries, involving a change in usual place of residence.

Interregional migration

The sum of all movements among the 50 main geographic entities defined in Demosim, namely the 35 regions derived from the census metropolitan areas and the 15 regions derived from elsewhere in the provinces and territories.

Intraregional migration

The sum of all movements within one of the 50 main geographic entities defined in Demosim, namely one of the 35 regions derived from the census metropolitan areas or one of the 15 regions derived from elsewhere in the provinces and territories.

Language most often spoken at home

The language spoken most often by the respondent at home.

Language substitution

See “language transfer”.

Language transfer

Refer to the phenomenon that occurs when a person adopts a language other than his or her mother tongue as the language spoken most often at home.

Life expectancy

A statistical measure derived from the life table, indicating the average number of years of life remaining for a population at a specific age "x", calculated on the basis of the mortality rates estimated in a given year.

Linguistic mobility

A generic term that, in the context of Demosim, refers to both the transmission of languages from parents to children (intergenerational linguistic mobility) and the changes that can occur over an individual’s lifetime with respect to the languages spoken at home or the languages known (intragenerational linguistic mobility).

Median age

An age "x", such that exactly one half of the population is older than "x" and the other half is younger than "x".

Microsimulation

Unlike population estimates and projections produced using the cohort-component method, microsimulation simulates the demographic destiny of each individual. The method is based on multiple random drawing at the individual level rather than on aggregated data applied at the population group level.

Migratory increase

The change in the size of a population owing to the difference between the number of migrants who settle within a geographic area and the number of migrants who leave that same area during a given period.

Mother tongue

The first language learned at home in childhood and still understood.

Natural increase

The change in the size of a population owing to the difference between the number of births and the number of deaths during a given period.

Net non-permanent residents

Variation in the number of non-permanent residents between two dates.

Net temporary emigration

Variation in the number of temporary emigrants between two dates.

Net undercoverage

Difference between the number of people who were targeted by the census but who were not enumerated (undercoverage), and the number of people who were enumerated when they should not have been, or who were enumerated more than once (overcoverage).

Non-Christian religions

In the context of this study, people with a non-Christian religion include people who have a religion (excluding people with no religious affiliation) other than Catholic, Protestant, Christian orthodox, or Christian not included elsewhere. The non-Christian religion groups projected are Islam, Judaism, Buddhism, Hinduism, Sikhism and other non-Christian religions.

Non-permanent resident

People who have a work or study permit or who are refugee claimants, and the family members living in Canada with them.

Person-years

The total number of years lived in a given state by the people who make up the population from January 1 to December 31 of a given year. In this study, projected population figures are presented in person-years, while the figures for the base population are as of May 10, 2011 (Census and NHS Day).

Population increase or total increase

The change in the size of a population between two dates.

Population projection

The future population size resulting from a set of assumptions regarding the demographic and non-demographic components of growth.

Projection scenario

A set of assumptions relating to the components, demographic or otherwise, used to make a population projection.

Religion

Self-reported affiliation with a religious denomination, group, body, sect, cult or other religiously defined community or system of belief. This concept differs from the concepts of religious practice (e.g., prayer or participation in religious ceremonies) and religiosity (devotion, importance of religion in daily life, etc.).

Religious mobility

A change in religious affiliation, whether between parents and their children (intergenerational religious mobility) or over an individual’s lifetime (intragenerational religious mobility).

Returning emigrant

Canadian citizen or immigrant who previously emigrated from Canada and subsequently returned to the country.

Temporary emigrant

Canadian citizen or immigrant who left Canada to establish temporary residence in a foreign country.

Total emigration

The number of emigrants minus the number of returning emigrants plus net temporary emigration.

Total fertility rate

The sum of age-specific fertility rates during a given year. It indicates the average number of children that a generation of women would have if, over the course of their reproductive life, they experienced the age-specific fertility rates observed during the year considered.

Visible minority groups

The Employment Equity Act defines visible minorities as "persons, other than Aboriginal peoples, who are non-Caucasian in race or non-white in colour."

 

 


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