Introduction

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During the 1980s and the 1990s, about one-third of Canadian communities¹ experienced continuous demographic growth, while another third experienced continuous population decline (Mwansa and Bollman 2005). The pattern suggests a divergent trend, with some communities steadily moving along a path of population and employment expansion, while others are progressively downsizing. A map of community level changes reveals the most striking feature of this spatial restructuring (Mwansa and Bollman 2005). Steadily declining communities are concentrated in peripheral and core rural regions, while steadily growing communities are highly concentrated in core urban regions. There has been considerable debate about the forces causing these changes and, even more so, to what extent these are inescapable forces of change (see for instance Polèse and Shearmur 2006).

The analysis presented in this bulletin suggests that there are two main forces that shape community population trajectories: sector restructuring and agglomeration. To some extent, these forces appear as the two faces of the same coin. Over the past two decades, the Canadian economy has undergone a substantial process of economic restructuring, characterized by continuous employment decline in traditional sectors, typically concentrated in rural and peripheral regions, and continuous employment growth in the so-called knowledge economy, typically urban-based.

Agglomeration forces result from the many economic advantages that accrue to firms and individuals who concentrate their activities in close proximity to each other (e.g., larger pool of human resources, access to strategic resources and the possibility to have continuous face-to-face interaction with clients and suppliers, etc.). Despite some sign of decongestion from urban cores to surrounding peri-urban areas, agglomeration effects have been pervasive and can be observed in their various dimensions. Population has generally shifted from lower to higher density regions. Communities located in the proximity of urban centres grew more than those further from an urban core, and those located close to larger urban agglomerations grew more than those located in proximity to small towns. Hence, both proximity to and size of the urbancore had clear and distinctive effects on the demographic trajectories of communities.

Other than sector restructuring and agglomeration forces, two other factors are clearly associated with population changes: economic diversification and human capital. Communities that had a diversified economy and highly skilled labour forces and that were located in diversified and human capital-intensive regions grew faster (or declined less) than communities with opposite characteristics.

The findings indicate that both community and regional (i.e., surrounding communities) characteristics are associated with community demographic trajectories. In several cases, regional characteristics appear to reinforce community effects. This has implications for both research and development initiatives. Analysts and decision makers should focus on communities in their regional milieu, such as rural communities in rural regions (for example, a rural community in the Prairies), versus rural communities in urban regions (for example, a rural community in southern Ontario).

Finally, the findings appear remarkably stable across macro-regions of Canada. However, a model of community demographic change driven by restructuring and agglomeration fits the population dynamics of western Canada particularly well.

These results highlight the economic viability and the challenge of sustainability for small and remote communities. Employment in traditional sectors and in low population density communities remains the salient feature of "rurality". Nonetheless, the analysis also indicates outliers to average trends. Community leaders may wish to use this type of information to conduct an assessment of their community and regional characteristics to develop realistic and pro-active demographic initiatives that build on community and regional assets.

The results presented in this bulletin are based on data from the 1981 and 2006 Census of Population (Box 1). After exploring the bivariate relationship between selected indicators and population change, a multivariate regression model is used to estimate the independent effect of each variable, once other community characteristics are controlled for (Box 2 for definitions and Box 4 for methodology).  The model is estimated for the entire sample of communities and for sub-samples of rural and urban communities (Appendix Table A3) and for five macro-regions of Canada (Appendix Table A4). Results of a weighted regression, including regional and provincial dummies, are also reported (Appendix Table A5). They confirm the stability of the findings. The following sections discuss the main drivers of community population change in more detail.

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Note

1. In this bulletin, the term community refers to Census Consolidated Subdivisions (CCSs). See Box 2 for more details on community and regional definitions used in this bulletin.